TSLA Market Action: 2018 Investor Roundtable

[bdy0627]

Quiet is good. If TT007 shows up chest pumping and waxing poetic, it may even be time to sell, /s

Eventually some of the ultra bulls will be right, but now is not yet the time. I hope when that time comes they will be too busy counting money than posting on TMC

So, quiet is good.

I tend to agree. I'm pseudo superstitious, so lots of bragging/swagging talk seems to affect Karma. I'd prefer to see trading strategy discussions whether we are up or down.

 

[bdy0627]

I bought stock this morning, but the current up means nothing until the Q4 deliveries comes out. If the market doesn't like the numbers, this mornings gains will be erased and then some. I'll be excited if it goes up after the report....

Keep in mind that if the market reaction is negative, it will likely be ultra short-term. A drop and consolidation most likely won't last more than a week or two as long as more and more Model 3s keep showing up.

 

[dc_h]

actually no... if you communicated to shorts (including listening), it'd be very difficult for you to find one that says the MS is a bad car... to the contrary, most (if not all) say that it is a great car. I can't imagine that this extrapolated to assuming the M3 will be a bad car also... making a great car is one factor in being a great auto company... the other factors are quality, price, volume, profit and sustainable demand... and these are the parts of the equation that shorts are negative about.

Execution is the only thing that matters. They have said what they will do and they are doing it. Have they met expectations and are they doing it on time and on budget. We know they are a few months late. If they are now moving to scale that resolves the timing. The margins we won't know in a meaningful way until q2. We should have more color and detail on q4 earnings call though.
Short term though, how fast can they make the cars is all that matters. Quality, desirability and orders that reflect interest in the car and brand are there in the form of 1 to years years of production.

 

[madodel]

Quiet is good. If TT007 shows up chest pumping and waxing poetic, it may even be time to sell, /s

Eventually some of the ultra bulls will be right, but now is not yet the time. I hope when that time comes they will be too busy counting money than posting on TMC

So, quiet is good.

So if I proclaim 2018 the Year of Tesla, you think that's a bit too much, too early?

 

[immunogold]

Although institutional investors hold sway now, both long and short, I suspect that Tesla is changing retail investing patterns in a meaningful way, both for new MS/MX/M3 buyers, but also for tech-aware/forward-thinking types (I am in the latter category - I don’t own a Tesla).
Prior to Tesla, all of my investments were in index funds and managed funds. That money is all still there. However, because of my enthusiasm regarding Tesla, I have put money in the market that would not otherwise have been invested at all, to the tune of 400 shares of TSLA. Based on my enthusiasm for the company, I now have three family members who also have small positions in TSLA who had not previously invested in individual stocks. If my situation is playing out in other family/friend settings (ie new money that would not otherwise have been in the market), then retail investment in TSLA will play an ever-growing role.
My family members and friends have invested based upon my enthusiasm, but are held back from larger positions primarily because they perceive Tesla as having difficulty executing. They are all aware of the backlog of 400K pre-orders, and wonder if potential Tesla customers will turn to the other EVs scheduled to hit the market in the next two years (I am aware of the flaws in this line of thought, and do not share this concern, but it is prevalent).
My thesis is that what matters is not Q4 production or delivery numbers we will get this week, but rather a quarterly report that announces where the company is in relation to the bottlenecks. I think that there is a potential groundswell of investment from relatively unsophisticated small investors such as myself. The concerns I hear center on “how quickly can Tesla meet those pre-orders.” Solving the bottlenecks and unleashing the anticipated new level of manufacturing automation at the Gigafactory and at Fremont will be the point at which the tide changes. For that type of audience, the Q4 production/delivery numbers are not going to be decisive enough to change concerns.
In summary, I think the quarterly report is what many people are waiting for.

 

[dakh]

The track record of execution problems at Tesla have been that in the process of resolving them, folks learn a lot and have realizations on how things can be categorically improved. I wouldn't be surprised that the mad rush to fix pack production that the best engineers were sent to perform produces something of that nature. So to me an ideal scenario is that in the ER Elon reports that production problems are resolved and also we have learned how to **** which is coming in 2019.

 

[elasalle]

Although institutional investors hold sway now, both long and short, I suspect that Tesla is changing retail investing patterns in a meaningful way, both for new MS/MX/M3 buyers, but also for tech-aware/forward-thinking types (I am in the latter category - I don’t own a Tesla).
Prior to Tesla, all of my investments were in index funds and managed funds. That money is all still there. However, because of my enthusiasm regarding Tesla, I have put money in the market that would not otherwise have been invested at all, to the tune of 400 shares of TSLA. Based on my enthusiasm for the company, I now have three family members who also have small positions in TSLA who had not previously invested in individual stocks. If my situation is playing out in other family/friend settings (ie new money that would not otherwise have been in the market), then retail investment in TSLA will play an ever-growing role.
My family members and friends have invested based upon my enthusiasm, but are held back from larger positions primarily because they perceive Tesla as having difficulty executing. They are all aware of the backlog of 400K pre-orders, and wonder if potential Tesla customers will turn to the other EVs scheduled to hit the market in the next two years (I am aware of the flaws in this line of thought, and do not share this concern, but it is prevalent).
My thesis is that what matters is not Q4 production or delivery numbers we will get this week, but rather a quarterly report that announces where the company is in relation to the bottlenecks. I think that there is a potential groundswell of investment from relatively unsophisticated small investors such as myself. The concerns I hear center on “how quickly can Tesla meet those pre-orders.” Solving the bottlenecks and unleashing the anticipated new level of manufacturing automation at the Gigafactory and at Fremont will be the point at which the tide changes. For that type of audience, the Q4 production/delivery numbers are not going to be decisive enough to change concerns.
In summary, I think the quarterly report is what many people are waiting for.

in next 48-56 hrs - what matters most is quarterly numbers(production/ deliveries )...

edited: to state production/deliveries

 

[dc_h]

in next 48-56 hrs - what matters most is quarterly deliveries ...

Quarterly production, especially that new car.

Update. Quarterly deliveries of S & X and production of the 3.

 

[Papafox]

Here's a short quiz...
TSLA has been trading level just below 320 for the past few hours because:
1) No longs value TSLA at greater than 320
2) TSLA always ends the day on a "6" and 326 is too high for today
3) shorts are capping the stock at present

 

[Bobbyducati]

been out of the loop, numbers expected today or tomorrow?

 

[SteveG3]

been out of the loop, numbers expected today or tomorrow?

I'd say tomorrow, perhaps Thursday. I checked and the past two years, they came out on the 3rd of January, but, this year there was even more frenetic delivery activity than usual through New Year's Eve day, and, Tesla knows some will be looking at the numbers with a microscopic view. So, perhaps, not until Thursday.

 

[Todd Burch]

Somehow, this happened:
Highest production VIN in the wild

(Spolier: > 3000 VIN delivered Dec. 30)

 

[Svetlin]

Somehow, this happened:
Highest production VIN in the wild

(Spolier: > 3000 VIN delivered Dec. 30)

Weird bit is that 5YJ3E1EAXJF003027 is a valid 2018 VIN registered with NHTSA, and 5YJ3E1EAXHF003040 is a valid 2017 VIN (apparently already delivered)

 

[ev-enthusiast]

Tesla Model 3 completed US cannonball run as quickest EV, ever (thanks Alex and Dan, link).

 

[SPadival]

myusername, you better give up. Even Papafox has got a joke on you!!

Here's a short quiz...
TSLA has been trading level just below 320 for the past few hours because:
1) No longs value TSLA at greater than 320
2) TSLA always ends the day on a "6" and 326 is too high for today
3) shorts are capping the stock at present

 

[CHGolferJim]

Note: Today's relatively large move was on low volume. What does that say about the shorts vs. institutional longs?

 

[dc_h]

Note: Today's relatively large move was on low volume. What does that say about the shorts vs. institutional longs?

I think everyone is waiting on the numbers. The potential for a whipsaw up and down or down and up as the market digests and interprets the numbers will be interesting. VIN counting of Model 3s is impossible, with sub 2000 VINs still en route and a couple of over 3000 VINs delivered. Could be 1000 a week rate last week or 500, very unknowable. Could be 270 350 or no change tomorrow.

 

[bdy0627]

I think everyone is waiting on the numbers. The potential for a whipsaw up and down or down and up as the market digests and interprets the numbers will be interesting. VIN counting of Model 3s is impossible, with sub 2000 VINs still en route and a couple of over 3000 VINs delivered. Could be 1000 a week rate last week or 500, very unknowable. Could be 270 350 or no change tomorrow.

Yes, definitely may be another run up and then back down but I believe we are getting very close to a big sustained run up.

 

[myusername]

Note: Today's relatively large move was on low volume. What does that say about the shorts vs. institutional longs?

max pain was $320 today... there's news coming out... typical zeroing out before news.

 

[Bet TSLA]

I liked today's action. Or inaction on my part. My TSLA winnings increased by 26.8% in one day. If I were to do that every trading day this year I'd be a gazillionaire!

Actually, I'll be thrilled if this year is anything close to how last year was for me. My portfolio tripled (+206%), with TSLA holdings accounting for ~55% of my gains.