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TSLA Market Action: 2018 Investor Roundtable

Discussion in 'TSLA Investor Discussions' started by AudubonB, Dec 30, 2017.

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  1. Troy

    Troy Active Member

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    #60561 Troy, Nov 17, 2018
    Last edited: Nov 17, 2018
    Imagine you are reading a book on a park bench and people walking past behind you report to me the page number you are reading. In a scenario like this, the number of people who are reporting the number is not that important. Similarly, my estimates are mostly based on the numerical values of VINs reported and not the number of people who are reporting data.

    If you check out my Model S/X Tracker Spreadsheet, the sample rate there is less than 1%. In Q3 2018, 257 people reported S/X deliveries compared to 27,710 actual deliveries but that didn't stop me from estimating S/X production in Q3 with 97.8% accuracy. Currently, this file estimates 27,690 for S/X production in Q4 2018. I encourage people to follow the estimate there and compare it to the actual number. As for Model 3 estimates in Q4 2018, Tesla said they are aiming for higher Model 3 production and deliveries than Q3 and they are on track to achieve that.

    Looking at the data, I can see that if Model 3 production were to continue at the current rate, they would finish Q4 at 56,733 units produced compared to 53,239 in Q3. However, I don't know how production will increase in the next 6 weeks between now and the end of the quarter. My best guess is, Q4 production will be between 59,000 - 61,000. As we get closer to the end of the quarter we will have fewer unknown weeks and the accuracy is expected to improve. I recommend following the latest estimate in my spreadsheet here: Teslike Model 3 Order Tracker #3

    I like estimates that are comparable to actual numbers. Therefore at the end of Q4, I will release estimates for the following 5 numbers all of which will also be released by Tesla a few days after Q4.
    • Model S + Model X production in Q4 2018
    • Model 3 production in Q4 2018
    • Global Model S deliveries in Q4 2018
    • Global Model X deliveries in Q4 2018
    • Global Model 3 deliveries in Q4 2018
     
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  2. Buckminster

    Buckminster Active Member

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    Don't make me go all dystopian on you. My wife has banned me from these views.

    Let's go with:

    Trump has got this!

    If you do a deal with us post Brexit, we promise to buy your merch. We just ain't gonna touch those corndogs..
     
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  3. CorneliusXX

    CorneliusXX Active Member

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    The same way you did it to pay off the WW2 debt. Raise the highest marginal rates to 90% and beef up the inheritance and capital gains taxes.

    This takes a level of political will that is not seen outside emergency situations.
     
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  4. KarenRei

    KarenRei ᴉǝɹuǝɹɐʞ

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    Top 10 imports to the UK post-Brexit:
    • Food
    • Water
    • Steel scrap
    • Ammunition
    • Iodine pills
    • Land mines
    • Armour plating
    • Roof-mounted machine guns
    • War Rigs
    • Thunderdomes
     
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  5. CorneliusXX

    CorneliusXX Active Member

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    Australia has a monopoly on thunderdome technology. It is one of our most closely guarded secrets and we do not export.
     
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  6. Artful Dodger

    Artful Dodger "Ducimus, lit"

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    Lol, says the Aussie living in London... :p

    Cheers, mate!
     
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  7. Fact Checking

    Fact Checking Well-Known Member

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    What would be the mechanism for that to happen "quickly"? Oil is a huge industry, with many of its customers being "inflexible": i.e. they cannot just suddenly stop buying oil, it's used for transportation and heating, which doesn't stop. There's also a lot of new oil demand coming from developing/emerging countries, which more than substitutes for the (slow) inroads renewables are making in richer economies.

    Internal combustion engine demand might collapse, even without enough competing supply, because purchases of new cars can be deferred almost indefinitely. This has also happened in the past: by early 2009 new car sales halved (!), while obviously people still drove to work.

    Crude oil production on the other hand showed only a minor blip: people were still forced to buy gas.

    So I'm genuinely curious what specific mechanisms you can see for a demand shock in oil consumption that would create a transient on oil stock prices.
     
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  8. jbih

    jbih Supporting Member

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    Another way I imagine a short squeeze would be triggered if some large lenders would stop lending. Although they wouldn't get the money from lending the stock for a short time, the rising stock price caused by the squeeze would offset that many times. Why don't they do that? It's probably illegal (because it would be stock price manipulation) but that doesn't stop others doing illegal things...
     
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  9. avoigt

    avoigt Active Member

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    The government restrictions in China on ICEs are pretty strict and that limits the growth opportunity of ICEs in a significant way. They can put more pressure on ICEs if they call it required.

    (...) In addition to consumer subsidies, many cities provide favorable policies such as the assured issuance of a vehicle license and increased access to carpool lanes to EV purchasers. For example, the city of Beijing caps the number of vehicle licenses issued each month in order to regulate the number of vehicles in the capital city. In any given month, as many as three million applications might be received for the 3,000 available new vehicle licenses, with the remainder going into a lottery pool. Buyers of EVs, however, are exempt from this process and assured of receiving a license. (...)

    What China's Shifting Subsidies Could Mean For Its Electric Vehicle Industry
     
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  10. Causalien

    Causalien Prime 8 ball Oracle

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    So, word on the shop floor in asia is that many merchants in the supply chain with factories in China have started diversifying away to surrounding countries. So trump's trade war is changing the dynamic.

    However, because there aren't enough labourers outside China to handle the load (with the tech know how and willing to work in shitty factories), they are opting for automation and building factories with that in mind.

    Completion of factories will happen around march 2019 and production begin around June.

    Not sure what kind of impact this will have.
     
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  11. cheshire cat

    cheshire cat Member

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  12. Lycanthrope

    Lycanthrope S3XY old dude

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    By European standards, they huge... Way too wide for our roads in general.
     
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  13. Lycanthrope

    Lycanthrope S3XY old dude

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    Hmmmm, is that a rule on the Autobahn, or just that you're terrified of the narrow lane?

    As for the diesel stink - thank goodness for Bio Weapon filter, it seems to remove all traces - one of my favourite features compared to my old P85.
     
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  14. mrdoubleb

    mrdoubleb Supporting Member

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    #60574 mrdoubleb, Nov 18, 2018
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 18, 2018
    There is one bit of new data that I can't seem to be able to fully reconcile with your numbers, so I was wondering what's your take on it?

    Fred's latest article says his sources told him the Tesla fleet crossed 500k vehicles this past week. As per your Google spreadsheet we were at 441k at the end of Q3, not counting the original Roadster. So with that we would have been at 443-444k I believe. This would mean, that Tesla has delivered 56-57k cars in 6 weeks. That's way too much.

    Our EU numbers show ~1k for October and Asia should be another ~1k, with and InsideEVs showing ~20k for the US, so October would be ~22k total. Even with the first 2 weeks of November added in (11-12k?) this just does not add up.

    Mod-edited to fix a confusing datum.
     
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  15. CorneliusXX

    CorneliusXX Active Member

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    My interpretation is that N is referring to the rapid (in terms of industrial cycles) transfer to renewable energy and EVs. However since oil is priced at the margin, there doesn't have to be an immediate hard reduction in demand for the price to drop significantly, that can still happen with a few percent per year reduction in overall demand. Then when you consider that oil companies have high operating margins due to the massive capital investment required to extract, transport and refine oil, the value of the oil companies can quickly plummet if priced drop at the margins.
     
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  16. CorneliusXX

    CorneliusXX Active Member

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    It seems that we are not too far away from the ramp stage of GF2 now that we are seeing employment increases, confirmation of durability testing of the solar roof, and journalists being invited to the factory. I'd be surprised if we didn't see numbers increasing noticeably within the next 12-18 months.

    Most of the financial analysis I have seen tends to gloss over the solar roof portion of the balance sheet and focus more on vehicles/batteries.

    Can anyone recommend any posts that go into detail on the economics of solar rooves?
     
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  17. Johann Koeber

    Johann Koeber Active Member

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    There are signes that limit the use of the left lane. These are not heavily enforced (but you never know). Better not get in an accident.

    Some of the construction zones allow as little as 2 m of width, most are 2.1 or 2.2 m.

    It is really annoying having to go in the right lane for many kilometers.
     
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  18. KarenRei

    KarenRei ᴉǝɹuǝɹɐʞ

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    Current economics or prospective economics?

    Current: well more expensive than just adding panels in all situations. Just "look nicer" and "cutting edge"

    Prospective: if Tesla can get the costs down, they could be vastly cheaper than panels in any "new construction" or "new roof scenario". In the ultimate situation, solar roofs could literally become the way almost all new houses are built.

    The difference is that with panels, you have labour to build the roof plus labour to install the panels, while with a solar roof, you only have to pay for the labour once. And as panel prices keep falling, labour becomes an ever-increasing fraction of the total cost.
     
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  19. CorneliusXX

    CorneliusXX Active Member

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    My thoughts are around volume growth of roof tiles. Given that it "should be" far less complicated to produce a roof tile than a car, the production line should be relatively (compared to cars) simple to both increase production line speed, and also to parallelise production. If this is the case, then what is the limiting factor in production growth? Solar panel availability, customer demand, ability to install, available capital?

    The second thought is around margins, and how quickly they will reach the target of being similar to vehicle margins. EM has stated that he expects them to be similar over time, but who knows what that timeframe is.

    Your thoughts on labour being an ever increasing fraction of the total cost is true. However I don't know if that says much about the potential impact on financial returns or customer demand. If we start with the premise that every house needs a roof, and that labour cost is similar to install any roof (probably a poor assumption here), then labour should be removed from the equation in the customer buying decision (or at least only the incremental labour cost of installing Tesla roofs compared to an alternative should be included).
     
  20. KarenRei

    KarenRei ᴉǝɹuǝɹɐʞ

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    It certainly should not be removed from the equation. Two scenarios when building a new roof:

    A) Customer builds a conventional roof, and pays for labour for it. Customer then adds solar panels to the roof, and pays for the labour for that as well.

    B) Customer builds a solar roof, and pays for labour for that. Nothing else needs to be done - no additional labour.

    Obviously B is a much lower cost scenario, unless there's something really wrong with how they've designed the solar roof tiles.
     
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