TSLA Market Action: 2018 Investor Roundtable

[wipster]

But the stock price? Hopefully the 330 line will not be breached today. Oh well, I kinda see similar tactics on other short trading days. Weak longs are being taken advantaged by the shorts.

Well that didn't take long...

 

[Analyst007]

I bought 100 shares on margin at the 250 dip recently. As I need money in about one month, I would like to remove some of the risk by closing out my margin at least... But this macro environment is no fun. What to do? What to do?

get money from the bank and wait.

 

[homer214]

Interesting to see the “Tesla dropping prices in China” news getting quite a bit of play on international news networks (BBC, CNN etc). And it is not being reported as negative for Tesla, more along the lines of: “This is the result of tariffs, and Tesla is enabling more Chinese customers to buy a Tesla”.

Tesla news is not so FUDdy lately.

 

[EVMeister]

Think of this as a Black Friday sale.

 

[Leo9]

Bearish engulfing on weekly chart likely implies a lower low next week.
Also it’s not surprising at all to see weakness after that perfect shooting star on Monday.
TSLA reached a local high; it will go higher after some rest.

 

[adaptabl]

Think of this as a Black Friday sale.

Or Black Friday. HAHAHA

 

[Unpilot]

This is me waiting for the epic squeeze.

 

[erha]

Anybody who has any take on whether we are entering a recession or not atm?

As we've had low interest rates for a decade now, the dept level is very high. And it's high not only for consumers, but also for companies and governments... But, on the other side, companies are raking in high profits, unemployment is low and P/E doesn't seem unreasonably high generally speaking.

Maybe someone who remembers the financial crises of '07-'08 can chime in: Do you see lots of similarities to today's market, or is it a different situation?

 

[tivoboy]

I have a good feeling that today's going to be the day that I get my calls. Well, those that I can buy with what's in my account; the extra $18k I sent hasn't shown up yet :Þ Still liking the look of $250 Feb '19s. If I can get them for my target price (mid-$95s), with my expected probability distribution for Tesla's stock price at expiration they'd yield a weighted average 25% return. Breakeven would be in the mid-$345 range, and versus TSLA ~= $330 at purchase time, they'd perform better than stock at TSLA ~= $352 in February after the Q4 report.

My numbers are equally optimistic up to strike prices around $300, but my expected returns start to decline after that.

ED: Oh hey, my limit went off. Cool. Now here's to hoping that the $18k arrives soon so I can buy some more calls while the stock is down

On a day like today you should be able to buy a higher strike still in the money call for less money and get more leverage.

Btw lower swing trade price target reached.

 

[keydiver]

Tesla news is not so FUDdy lately.

I don't know, this stupid piece came up on my Yahoo this morning. Some moron trying to tie the stock market woes to Tesla's China discount.

 

[AlexS]

330 level is a nice level to grab some, in one and a half week we will get insideEV M3 delivery numbers if number will be around 21-22000 it will be amazing

 

[Curt Renz]

Interesting to see the “Tesla dropping prices in China” news getting quite a bit of play on international news networks (BBC, CNN etc). And it is not being reported as negative for Tesla, more along the lines of: “This is the result of tariffs, and Tesla is enabling more Chinese customers to buy a Tesla”.

Tesla news is not so FUDdy lately.

I don't know, this stupid piece came up on my Yahoo this morning. Some moron trying to tie the stock market woes to Tesla's China discount.

I suspect that Elon wisely knows what he is doing in this regard, while maintaining twitter silence. Sooner or later the tariffs will be removed or substantially lowered. Perhaps as soon at the G20 meetings at the turn of the month. Meanwhile, Tesla becomes all the more appreciated by Chinese consumers well in advance of a Tesla factory being built in Shanghai.

Today as usual short sellers and weak longs are likely assuming only negative consequences of Tesla eating the tariffs, and putting pressure on the stock during a shortened market session in which many institutional fund managers and other investors are ignoring the market. Wiser heads should soon prevail, possibly early next week.

Meanwhile this is a weekly options expiration day. The Max Pain site has been unreliable lately. It looks more like the $330-$335 strike price region could be a profitable target today for those market makers and hedge funds that have already written TSLA options expiring today.

 

[Ludalicious]

I don't know, this stupid piece came up on my Yahoo this morning. Some moron trying to tie the stock market woes to Tesla's China discount.

Has nothing to do with it. This stock has been well above the moving average for the last 2 weeks. It was overdue for a correction. Please insert your dislikes below

 

[shlokavica22]

Anybody who has any take on whether we are entering a recession or not atm?

As we've had low interest rates for a decade now, the dept level is very high. And it's high not only for consumers, but also for companies and governments... But, on the other side, companies are raking in high profits, unemployment is low and P/E doesn't seem unreasonably high generally speaking.

Maybe someone who remembers the financial crises of '07-'08 can chime in: Do you see lots of similarities to today's market, or is it a different situation?

That's exactly my worry now. From my laymen perspective it seems the unusual situation messes up a lot of models and algos.
The US economy is hotter at the expense of the Chinese. In addition the oil is very cheap (have you seen today's drop of /CL?!).
I guess many models rely on global parameters and the moment they see the Chinese economy slows down they assume the US one will follow.

 

[printf42]

I don't know, this stupid piece came up on my Yahoo this morning. Some moron trying to tie the stock market woes to Tesla's China discount.

Yeah totally forgot to mention oil dropped 6.8%.
I started to think maybe we could use TSLA to predict oil price, Wednesday looks like front running in hindsight,

 

[KarenRei]

Amazing that crude is around $50/barrel. Think of where we'd be in a high-oil-price environment.

 

[Cherry Wine]

Amazing that crude is around $50/barrel. Think of where we'd be in a high-oil-price environment.

I’m too dense to understand. Where?

 

[KarenRei]

I’m too dense to understand. Where?

The sorts of vehicles people tend to buy depends strongly on gas prices. People tend to choose smaller, more efficient vehicles when gas is expensive, and larger, less efficient vehicles when it's cheap. Investors know this, and it's reflected in anticipated deliveries / margins for vehicle manufacturers.

 

[CaliBear1]

Datum point re: production/delivery

I live in the SF Bay Area and finally ordered a Solid Black P3D with white interior on 11/7. A few days ago I was informed that it is scheduled to be delivered this coming Tuesday, 11/27. A day or two after configuring my car the sales associate called and told me they had an inventory Obsidian Black if I wanted to take delivery right away. I declined the offer. So, unless another sale involving my exact configuration fell through, that's a twenty day turn around. Even taking into consideration my proximity to Fremont, that's quite impressive.

 

[Cherry Wine]

The sorts of vehicles people tend to buy depends strongly on gas prices. People tend to choose smaller, more efficient vehicles when gas is expensive, and larger, less efficient vehicles when it's cheap. Investors know this, and it's reflected in anticipated deliveries / margins for vehicle manufacturers.

The implication being that more people would be buying Tesla vehicles if gas were more expensive? That was my thought, just wanted to make sure I wasn’t missing something.