TMC is an independent, primarily volunteer organization that relies on ad revenue to cover its operating costs. Please consider whitelisting TMC on your ad blocker and becoming a Supporting Member. For more info: Support TMC
  1. TMC is currently READ ONLY.
    Click here for more info.

TSLA Market Action: 2018 Investor Roundtable

Discussion in 'TSLA Investor Discussions' started by AudubonB, Dec 30, 2017.

Tags:
Thread Status:
Not open for further replies.
  1. MarcusMaximus

    MarcusMaximus Active Member

    Joined:
    Jan 2, 2017
    Messages:
    3,789
    Location:
    Los Gatos
    Absolutely correct. Tesla makes no other cars other than the S/X, whatsoever, and never plans to. It’s really remarkable that their earnings fluctuate so much given that they’re solely producing a set number of only those cars, with no other business, huh?

    If only there was some other product they sold that could explain all of this..........
     
    • Funny x 11
    • Like x 4
    • Helpful x 2
  2. Oil4AsphaultOnly

    Oil4AsphaultOnly Supporting Member

    Joined:
    Mar 14, 2015
    Messages:
    1,904
    Location:
    Arcadia, CA
    Some historical context if you don't mind a contrarian viewpoint. The historical trading volume (check Q1/Q2 2017) was "normal" at ~4-5 million shares (so 3 million is still low), 6-7 is on some big news (up or down), and the ~10 million shares traded was during the short-covering/fidelity-reinvestment weeks following the blowout Q3.

    In other words, 7 million isn't normal, and 3 million isn't excessively low.
     
    • Informative x 3
  3. ZachF

    ZachF Active Member

    Joined:
    Mar 31, 2016
    Messages:
    1,794
    Location:
    Park City, UT
    #63143 ZachF, Nov 29, 2018
    Last edited: Nov 29, 2018
    Uhhhh... Every car company does that homey. They all offer 1% (or less) financing and generally borrow in the 4-7% range.

    Tesla now has one of the lowest debt/revenue ratios with the highest revenue growth rate. Also one of the lowest debt/OCF ratios now too.

    EDIT: See below
     
    • Informative x 2
    • Helpful x 1
  4. ZachF

    ZachF Active Member

    Joined:
    Mar 31, 2016
    Messages:
    1,794
    Location:
    Park City, UT
    #63144 ZachF, Nov 29, 2018
    Last edited: Nov 29, 2018
    Here's what car companies will probably look like in 2019:

    Tesla:
    ~$35b revenues
    ~$6b OCF
    ~$9b debt
    Debt is equal to 3 months of revenue or 18 months of operating cashflow. Revenue is growing at >30% per year.
    Growth, Profitability, and Financial Ratios for Tesla Inc (TSLA) from Morningstar.com

    Ford:
    ~$155b revenue
    ~$16b OCF
    ~$160b debt
    Debt is equal to 12 months of revenue of 120 months of operating cashflow. Revenue is not growing at all.
    Growth, Profitability, and Financial Ratios for Ford Motor Co (F) from Morningstar.com


    GM:
    ~$145b revenue
    ~$16b OCF
    ~$110b debt
    Debt is equal to 9 months of revenue or 83 months of OCF. Revenue is not growing.
    Growth, Profitability, and Financial Ratios for General Motors Co (GM) from Morningstar.com

    Toyota:
    ~$263b revenue
    ~$35b OCF
    ~$170b debt
    Debt is equal to 8 months of revenue or 58 months of operating cashflow. Revenue is not growing
    Growth, Profitability, and Financial Ratios for Toyota Motor Corp ADR (TM) from Morningstar.com

    VW:
    ~$263b revenue
    ~$8b OCF
    ~$160b debt
    Debt is equal to 7 months of revenue or 240 months of operating cashflow. Revenue is growing by about 2%/year.
    Growth, Profitability, and Financial Ratios for Volkswagen AG (VW) from Morningstar.com

    Daimler:
    ~$186b revenue
    ~($7b) OCF (that's right, negative OCF)
    ~$89b debt
    Debt is equal to 6 months of revenue and operating cashflow is negative. Revenue is not growing.
    Growth, Profitability, and Financial Ratios for Daimler AG ADR (DMLRY) from Morningstar.com

    BMW:
    ~$106b Revenue
    ~$7b OCF
    ~$89b debt
    Debt is equal to 10 months of revenue or 153 months of OCF. Revenue is shrinking by 2%.
    Growth, Profitability, and Financial Ratios for Bayerische Motoren Werke AG (BMW) from Morningstar.com
     
    • Informative x 66
    • Helpful x 8
    • Like x 5
    • Love x 5
  5. Rarity

    Rarity Member

    Joined:
    Jan 29, 2009
    Messages:
    856
    All true and informative (as far as projections can ever be), but I think some of the debt mixed in there is from the captive finance arms.
     
    • Informative x 2
    • Helpful x 1
  6. Carl Raymond

    Carl Raymond Active Member

    Joined:
    Oct 18, 2018
    Messages:
    1,459
    Location:
    NSW, Australia
    Environmentally friendly warfare. The ability to kill people without leaving a trail of pollution that might be dangerous to health.
     
    • Funny x 7
    • Love x 4
    • Helpful x 1
  7. JRP3

    JRP3 Hyperactive Member

    Joined:
    Aug 20, 2007
    Messages:
    19,384
    Location:
    Central New York
    No, it has nothing to do with market action and nothing to do with Tesla. It's no more relevant than an electric skateboard or scooter startup. It mostly looks like an attempt to get more eyeballs on a niche company you invested in.
     
    • Informative x 1
    • Like x 1
  8. BioSehnsucht

    BioSehnsucht Model 3 LR

    Joined:
    Apr 1, 2016
    Messages:
    1,787
    Location:
    DFW, TX
    I'm happy to let the software engineers build games into the system as long as it's separate teams and/or in their "own" time after getting their "real" work done, but unless they add USB or Bluetooth controller support, playing with the buttons on the steering wheel or the touch screen is really impractical ... so I would like it if they added either of those before adding more games.
     
    • Informative x 1
    • Like x 1
    • Love x 1
  9. 22522

    22522 Active Member

    Joined:
    Jun 6, 2016
    Messages:
    1,632
    Location:
    Texas
    2019 10Best Cars

    A little sloppy on my part, but I have lost faith in C&D's journalistic integrity.
     
    • Informative x 2
    • Like x 1
  10. Carl Raymond

    Carl Raymond Active Member

    Joined:
    Oct 18, 2018
    Messages:
    1,459
    Location:
    NSW, Australia
    That's partly it. But I also got excited that I was first to hear some news. What is this thread if not a bunch of people sharing news that potentially affects stock. It's Tesla focused. Is that really all we are interested in? No interest in the mission of sustainable transport and energy? And if we are not interested in that, we really have missed the whole point of Tesla. It is after all, their stated mission.
     
    • Like x 2
    • Helpful x 1
    • Informative x 1
    • Disagree x 1
  11. M3Rider

    M3Rider Supporting Member

    Joined:
    Oct 3, 2018
    Messages:
    1,463
    Location:
    CO
    I don't believe it's the same people who do the real work and games. He solicits suggestions for games on twitter - this was the case for Atari games and I think this will be one of the upcoming games -
    Niche Gamer on Twitter
    and then those people who agree, get the job :) I assume temporarily.
     
    • Informative x 1
  12. Rammstein

    Rammstein Member

    Joined:
    Apr 20, 2017
    Messages:
    261
    Location:
    Calgary
    I for one like the "off topic" discussion that happens here. I think off topic can be open for interpretation. Someone might think a topic like FSD has nothing to do with marked action and another person might think it does. Sounds like a impossible thing to moderate. I personally think that if it has anything remotely to do with Tesla then that topic is fair game. WTF would be in this thread if we didn't talk about things other than the stock price going up and down. That would be a very boring thread.
     
    • Like x 9
    • Disagree x 3
  13. humbaba

    humbaba sleeping until $7000

    Joined:
    Aug 25, 2018
    Messages:
    2,249
    Location:
    planet earth
    I'm not sure that kind of article has any journalism to lose integrity over. It is fluff piece aimed at their intended readership who want cars with engines to be tweaked, that roar when you press the accelerator and lurch when you don't smoothly advance through gears.

    I get it, I only drive manual transmission vehicles and they are a blast. Since I've never driven an electric, and I've only driven front wheel drive for decades, if I ever get the L3MR I ordered it will be a shock to the system. An electric just doesn't resonate with their intended audience. At least, not without experiencing one first hand.

    So while it does seem like a significant oversight for them to not include a Tesla in their lineup, I think it just illustrates the echo chamber effect. They don't want to risk upsetting a reader with something unexpected. Yes, they run the gamut down to a VW Golf, but "the 228-hp turbocharged inline-four" and later "the 288hp Golf R speaks to our power lust." Translation: it revs nicely. It has a "turbocharger".
     
  14. mmd

    mmd Banned

    Joined:
    Jun 22, 2015
    Messages:
    1,338
    Location:
    San Jose, CA
    #63154 mmd, Nov 29, 2018
    Last edited: Nov 29, 2018
    Hmm, ok! I see that 18 people already found your post informative.But when I click the link for Tesla, almost all the important numbers are negative. So I am not sure how you came to these rosy numbers here. If mods were to apply remotely consistent standards for all posts here, I think your post should be removed. I haven't checked all the data, but few that looked odd to me are indeed odd/misrepresentation.

    If your Tesla numbers are based on rosy analyst projecitons, then be warned than I have seen this story for many years. If we were to believe the Tesla analysts from years ago, Tesla will be rolling in cash with bilions of profit by now, instead of being "single digit weeks away from BK".

    Your Daimler number also looks wrong, but this seems to be a data entry error in the link. If you you click the financial tab, it shows Daimler has a $13B profit for 2017, not loss.
    Income Statement for Daimler AG ADR (DMLRY) from Morningstar.com
    daimler.JPG

    Daimler warned of sinking profits last month, but they aren't in the red yet.
    Daimler profit sinks on diesel; outlook for year lowered

    As for the debt loads: It's mostly pension liabilities, at least for American car companies. Tesla doesn't pay any pension. When it starts paying its workers fairly, it may see similar debt explosion. Nevertheless, I agree the debts are there.
     
    • Disagree x 11
    • Funny x 5
    • Like x 1
  15. JRP3

    JRP3 Hyperactive Member

    Joined:
    Aug 20, 2007
    Messages:
    19,384
    Location:
    Central New York
    Your post was not Tesla focused nor market related.
    A large part of Tesla's mission is to counteract the perception of EV's as niche market weirdmobiles which will never sell in real volume. Your post has nothing to do with that mission. There are also many other threads to discuss non-Tesla related topics. This thread starts to become unusable with too many off topic posts.

    Great, many other threads for that, including but not limited to the "General" discussion thread. We need to keep the clutter down in this thread.

    Useful.
     
    • Like x 2
    • Helpful x 1
  16. ZachF

    ZachF Active Member

    Joined:
    Mar 31, 2016
    Messages:
    1,794
    Location:
    Park City, UT
    2019 projections homey, It's bolded in Black on my post. Stock market prices the future, not now. Tesla's Q3 results annualized are ~$27b in rev, ~$5.2b in OCF, and ~$10.3b in debt. Tesla should easily get to $35b in revenue, $6b in OCF, and pay off about $2 billion in debt next year.

    Also, Operating cashflow =/= Operating income. Daimler's operating cashflow is negative. Look a few columns down. OCF is what pays for debt servicing/repayment and capital expenditures.

    Free cash flow is what people talk about when they say Tesla is "burning cash"... Take a look at Daimler's free cash flow the last 6-7 years, they've burned >$70 billion in cash.
     
    • Like x 14
    • Helpful x 3
    • Informative x 2
    • Funny x 2
  17. EVNow

    EVNow Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Sep 5, 2009
    Messages:
    9,240
    Location:
    Seattle, WA
    May I suggest tweeting at / calling Ro Khanna's office - esp. those in his district in CA? Tesla factory probably falls in his district.

    Ro Khanna for Congress
     
    • Helpful x 2
    • Like x 1
  18. scaesare

    scaesare Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Mar 14, 2013
    Messages:
    8,178
    Location:
    NoVA
    I believe that starting price point is after tax incentives, no?
     
    • Informative x 1
  19. Artful Dodger

    Artful Dodger "Ducimus, lit"

    Joined:
    Aug 9, 2018
    Messages:
    8,219
    Location:
    Canada
    #63159 Artful Dodger, Nov 29, 2018
    Last edited: Nov 29, 2018
    TSLA traded just 3.1 M shares today, the lowest daily volume in the last 15 months (Sep 1, 2017 was the last lower volume day, pending NASDAQ's final revision of today's number).

    @SpaceCash Is this the Calm before the Storm?

    CH3ERS!
     
    • Helpful x 2
    • Informative x 2
  20. jhm

    jhm Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    May 23, 2014
    Messages:
    9,294
    Location:
    Atlanta, GA
    Ok, I don't have time to post 95 these. I can't even keep up with this thread. So I started a Reform Movement.

    Tesla Price Action Reformed
     
Thread Status:
Not open for further replies.

Share This Page

  • About Us

    Formed in 2006, Tesla Motors Club (TMC) was the first independent online Tesla community. Today it remains the largest and most dynamic community of Tesla enthusiasts. Learn more.
  • Do you value your experience at TMC? Consider becoming a Supporting Member of Tesla Motors Club. As a thank you for your contribution, you'll get nearly no ads in the Community and Groups sections. Additional perks are available depending on the level of contribution. Please visit the Account Upgrades page for more details.


    SUPPORT TMC