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TSLA Market Action: 2018 Investor Roundtable

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kelevra

Member
Oct 28, 2016
134
170
Munich
I am more in margin than I have ever been and am happy about it. I thought $315-325 was a good deal. I steadily bought more at $290, 275 and 260, and then really loaded up between $250-255. This is one of those times that a few years from now we will look back and lament why we didn't buy more!

As the share price climbs, I will slowly unload some of my J20 LEAPS until I am out of margin.

try to balance out your strategy! Yeah numbers have been good and i am also long TSLA too, but are you aware that we are at the brink of a bear market? High growth shares like TSLA are usually the first one's which are getting sold. This is mainly what we've been seeing over the past weeks. With all this political and economic uncertainty we have right now, i would never want to be in the margin. What do you do, if we hit 200? If you are unbalanced like that you have no dry powder to buy, worse you may get margin called and have to sell.
 
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Reciprocity

Active Member
Feb 27, 2017
4,160
11,389
Chicagoland
It turns out that Bloomberg's model projected Q1 production within about 5%. I'd say they did pretty well, given the limited data available to them. Would you agree?

It does appear to be accurate when looking back 3 weeks or so, but very inaccurate to determine what is happening this week. Because of the nature of the ramp, it will always understate what's happening until well after it happens. I don't think it's something you can really model where you update the data every few days and your sources are limited to people putting in their vins and weekly VIN registration at the nhtsa. Even if you look at that model today, it doesn't show 2000/w which the CEO just said they are doing.

They have most recently added a trend which is forward looking. I don't know exactly what they use to get that, but it does appear to be pretty accurate as well. I wish it was there before, because I think it would have been very helpful for investors that look to Bloomberg as an actual news source. I will definitely keep my eye on it's projections, because they do seem to be more inline with what we are being told and see here in this forum and others. However, their updates still lag compared to just going to @Troy sheets and doing your own projections.
 
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bdy0627

Active Member
May 19, 2015
3,505
12,193
Appleton, WI
Based on futures, it looks like market support levels will get taken out with gusto today. I'm not looking forward to that primarily because of the effect on TSLA. We are back down to $254 premarket. Shorts are back in control here short term. TSLA can't climb unless the market supports it.
 
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dc_h

Active Member
Feb 14, 2015
3,546
13,454
Naperville, IL
Right but how does it work as Tesla already pays 25%? I'm assuming we don't know.
Either 25% added to existing 25% or 56.25% tariff or 50%. I’d guess 50%. Hopefully this all gets ironed out. The idea seems to be to hold everyone hostage for everything. N Korea peace, s Korea trade, japan trade and China in one big high risk gambit. If it works, it will be great for tsla and everyone. If it fails, Audubon has a great place in the country. .
 

Starno

Active Member
Mar 20, 2017
1,643
3,908
BERLIN
Based on futures, it looks like market support levels will get taken out with gusto today. I'm not looking forward to that primarily because of the effect on TSLA. We are back down to $254 premarket. Shorts are back in control here short term. TSLA can't climb unless the market supports it.

I feel like the only reason TSLA went over 300 is because of Tencent.

We need an other multi billion dollars investment in TSLA if we really want to see the needle move. Or multiple hundreds of millions of dollars poured into.

The question is when will that happen.
 

UnknownSoldier

Unknown Member
Supporting Member
Apr 17, 2017
2,169
13,128
Earth
"Trade wars are good and easy to win"
Based on futures, it looks like market support levels will get taken out with gusto today. I'm not looking forward to that primarily because of the effect on TSLA. We are back down to $254 premarket. Shorts are back in control here short term. TSLA can't climb unless the market supports it.
The market isn't going to support anything for weeks unless it's announced tomorrow that everyone was just kidding and all the tariffs are canceled.

I really hope that no one here is massively leveraged into calls today. It's not going to be pretty because there's no floor to market pressure as long as these tariffs are on the table. China is sending a clear message today that they are not to be messed around with and it's not clear that anyone on the American side has enough intelligence to hear that message.
 

Lbkmxp100d

Member
Dec 7, 2016
521
1,217
Lubbock, TX
"Trade wars are good and easy to win"

The market isn't going to support anything for weeks unless it's announced tomorrow that everyone was just kidding and all the tariffs are canceled.

I really hope that no one here is massively leveraged into calls today. It's not going to be pretty because there's no floor to market pressure as long as these tariffs are on the table. China is sending a clear message today that they are not to be messed around with and it's not clear that anyone on the American side has enough intelligence to hear that message.

The problem is China has been taking advantage of the U.S. for a very long time but we have never had someone willing to take the heat and get the lopsided trade back on level playing field. I know it hurts now but in the longterm it’s going to allow us to compete on a level playing field.

Also, China has to stop stealing our intellectual property! There are patents and other forms of protection to protect individuals and companies. When a Nation completely ignores this and willingly copies patent merchandise in order to benefit their Country its not good and I personally am willing to take this short term volatility in order to prevent this.

If China even slightly comes our direction and halfway levels the playing field you will see markets gain all its dips plus add 15% in a very rapid time.
 

Runarbt

Active Member
Mar 1, 2013
1,126
4,214
Drammen, Norway
That’s interesting since $TSLA dropped so sharply premarket on this announcement. I assume many saw headline and shorted. Wonder if we will see a turnaround if this becomes common knowledge. I sure hope so!

Might take a while for ppl to realize this. Might not even matter, as macro pushes down and dont care about details?
 

brian45011

Active Member
Apr 28, 2011
2,016
6,608
So, without the Model 3 ramp, Tesla would be at least break-even today, and probably profitable. That would be a nice little company, but it wouldn’t do much to transition the world to sustainable energy.

Unfortunately, the acquisition of SCTY added considerable net losses to Tesla's Income Statement going forward; only a small fraction of that effect appeared in the 4Q16 financials. Also, the benefit of regulatory credit income scales inversely as the volume of cars delivered increases. So, perhaps closer to "break even" but probably not profitable, unless R&D spending is severely curtailed.
 

luca

Member
Apr 1, 2015
152
177
German
Without trade war now US lost 375 billion dollar a year on trade deficit


With trade war US will only lose 100 billion dollar a year on exports to China!

With trade war China will lose 500 billion exports and 375 billion surplus a year


Lol



"Trade wars are good and easy to win"

The market isn't going to support anything for weeks unless it's announced tomorrow that everyone was just kidding and all the tariffs are canceled.

I really hope that no one here is massively leveraged into calls today. It's not going to be pretty because there's no floor to market pressure as long as these tariffs are on the table. China is sending a clear message today that they are not to be messed around with and it's not clear that anyone on the American side has enough intelligence to hear that message.
thout
 

DurandalAI

Member
Dec 20, 2016
962
2,952
US
Without trade war now US lost 375 billion dollar a year on trade deficit


With trade war US will only lose 100 billion dollar a year on exports to China!

With trade war China will lose 500 billion exports and 375 billion surplus a year


Lol




thout
IF we could bring all manufacturing back to the US, then that would prove beneficial, and it may be that some moves back to the US, but if the tariffs stick, then it is more likely that manufacturing would move to another low cost country for manufacturing instead.

That said, China owns a lot of US debt, they could crush our economy if they wanted to, but at the peril of hurting their own as well.
 
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