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TSLA Market Action: 2018 Investor Roundtable

Discussion in 'TSLA Investor Discussions' started by AudubonB, Dec 30, 2017.

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  1. AlexS

    AlexS Member

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    if you translate the article:

    The cars are shipped to Europe from the San Francisco plant in the US via the Zeebrugse site of International Car Operators. Electric cars are distributed across Europe from the coastal port. The new traffic is good for more than a hundred new jobs in the finishing center. There the Teslas are subjected to a final check and provided with extras before they go to the car dealer. The company invests 2.5 million euros in the new traffic.

    so maybe these extras and checking are done to reduce import tax, but I have no idea.
     
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  2. SpaceCash

    SpaceCash Intergalactic Planetary, Planetary Intergalactic

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    I mean it was literally a green day I think it was good movement all things considered. Can't have 3-8% EVERY day
     
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  3. UncaNed

    UncaNed Supporting Member

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    Where and how can I learn:

    1- Buying volume and Selling volume vs. just "volume"
    2- History for a stock price, like when was the last time, on which dates, or how many times before was a current SP reached?
     
  4. Krugerrand

    Krugerrand Is Cat

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    No, a mother can’t fill the roll of life partner. I’m sure, though, that he appreciates her for that which she can and does do for him.
     
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  5. Curt Renz

    Curt Renz Well-Known Member

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    Only a small a minority of traders, retail investors and institutions are buying or selling a what is a small portion of the float of a particular stock each day. Most shareholders or potential shareholders take absolutely no action on a particular day. It is those who are trading that day who can influence a stock's price far more than their numbers would seem to justify. They are the ones who react either rationally or irrationally to either the news or what other investors appear to be doing. Hence volatility. As you suggest, buy and holders are usually wise to ignore the nonsense.
     
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  6. M3Rider

    M3Rider Supporting Member

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    Are you implying there's no incentive to building a GF in Europe? It's not just EU tariff, but also transportation expenses, delays.
    Musk previously said it makes sense to have a separate GF per continent.

    The demand will grow too, so Tesla can't send over 50% of production overseas long term.

    Even if total now is 7k, 3k for Europe and some ?k for China, there's not much left for U.S.
     
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  7. Lessmog

    Lessmog Active Member

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    A EU GF (how's that for acronym salad?) will cost much more than the 10% savings on tariffs at this point, and is moreover not there at this point in time. Reality bites hard sometimes ,,,
     
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  8. AlexS

    AlexS Member

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    I heard US don't like sedans anyway, so send them all to Europe :)
     
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  9. UncaNed

    UncaNed Supporting Member

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    Do you have any more of his drawings?
     
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  10. Unpilot

    Unpilot Sell order in at $5999.99

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    Still closed green...I stand by my..er.. Spacecash's statement
     
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  11. Curt Renz

    Curt Renz Well-Known Member

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    Despite kerfuffles about media coverage, editing and attempts at spreading Tesla FUD, the overwhelming positive is the widespread free publicity that Tesla gets without paying for any advertisements. The underlying message about its highly desirable products ultimately passes through the filters.
     
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  12. Remus

    Remus Active Member

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    To be fair northern China's air quality has improved tremendously in the past several years.

    At the same time India's air remains bad.
     
    • Informative x 2
  13. UncaNed

    UncaNed Supporting Member

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    Has anyone else tried imagining the players reversed with a Chinese company in the US? I did and now I have a headache, considering our administration.
     
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  14. NicoV

    NicoV Supporting Member

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    I live about 60km from Zeebrugge. I may go take a look when the first ship arrives.
     
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  15. RobStark

    RobStark Well-Known Member

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    Apparently, so do Canadians and Mexicans.

    Well, the Czechs want their country to be known as Czechia now.

    Is that a war torn Russian Republic?
     
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  16. Zaxxon

    Zaxxon Supporting Member

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    9/28 - $264
    10/16 - $276
    10/31 - $337
    11/15 - $348
    11/30 - $350
    12/11 - $366

    I'm OK with this trend. Slow and steady burns the shorts wins the race. Bring on Q4 deliveries, then earnings, then Model Y reveal, then Model Y reservation numbers, then Q1 earnings, etc etc.
     
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  17. adiggs

    adiggs Active Member

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    Every transaction involves an equal quantity of buying and selling. Put a different way, every purchase of stock requires an equal sale of stock by somebody else. And vice versa.

    Volume = buying volume = selling volume.
     
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  18. M3Rider

    M3Rider Supporting Member

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    Not until we have the Y, uh-uh.
     
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  19. Curt Renz

    Curt Renz Well-Known Member

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    #66739 Curt Renz, Dec 11, 2018
    Last edited: Dec 11, 2018
    True in the larger context. However the volume of trades at the bid price vs. the volume of trades at the ask price, can be quite telling regarding selling pressure vs. buying interest and the direction of the short-term trend.
     
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  20. Troy

    Troy Active Member

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    #66740 Troy, Dec 11, 2018
    Last edited: Dec 11, 2018
    Hi, everybody. My previous update was on 18 Nov, here in this thread. Here is a new update:

    Production is going well. I see an increase and more activity on weekends. They are definitely adding more shifts to weekends. If they were to continue at the current rate, they would finish Q4 at 59,500 Model 3s produced. I don't know exactly what kind of increase we might see between now and the end of the quarter but being cautiously optimistic, I would expect a little over 60K but 61K could be possible too.

    As for deliveries, I estimate about 12,000 Model 3's were delivered in the US in the last week. The reason for the high number is that the cars they shipped early in the quarter to the East Coast have arrived. The order backlog dropped from 20,000 to 8,000. This is a good thing because Tesla has promised 2018 delivery for orders placed by 30 Nov. New order rate is a bit low after 30 Nov. I estimate between 1,700-2,000, new Model 3 orders per week in North America, down from 2,500-3,000 on average before the 30 Nov deadline. This is not a problem because they will start production for Europe in early January. There is a chance EU production could start in the last few days of December if they clear the backlog.

    My current estimates for Q4 are as follows:

    Production:
    60,359 Model 3 (up 13% from 53,239 in Q3)
    24,909 Model S+X
    Total 85,268

    Deliveries:
    60,596 Model 3 (up 8% from 56,065 in Q3)
    14,911 Model S
    12,754 Model X
    Total 88,261

    Tesla's guidance for Q4 is,
    • More Model 3s produced and delivered in Q4 than Q3. They will hit this target.
    • 100,000 S/X delivered in 2018. My current estimate is pretty close at 99,509.
    Here are some useful links:
    • Tesla Production and Delivery Estimates: 28 people added their estimates for Q4 2018. You can add your estimate too if you want. There is a link to a Google form on the top left.
    • Teslike Model S/X Order Tracker: The 'S/X Production' tab shows the latest estimate. In Q3, this was 97.8% accurate.
    • Teslike Model 3 Order Tracker: The 'Production' tab shows the latest estimate. This was 98.8% accurate in Q3. 4,818 Model 3 buyers have added their data to this survey since Apr 1st, 2018. I remove old entries every 3 months to make room.
    • You can follow me on Twitter @TroyTeslike
     
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