TSLA Market Action: 2018 Investor Roundtable

[Cartegena]

so I think the big thing here is for MM's to close the day as close to max-pain as possible.

Who/how many are the MMs? Are there MMs on each Options Exchange? If so, do they act in concert or does each one trade around its own book?

Are MMs on the Equity Exchanges involved?

 

[Artful Dodger]

TSLA - After Hours - Summary:

Last Trade: $366.50 (+0.79)
Volume: 68,365
VWAP: $366.37 (+0.66)
Traded: $25,046,997.30
A/Hrs Hi: $367.37 (+1.66)
A/Hrs Lo: $365.51​

WEEKEND OFF-PLANET: "Buckle up, we're goin' to Mars!"

 

[anthonyj]

High volume today and increased OI on my favorite option: January 18th $400 calls

Could big shorts be covering before the year end to claim a loss? And possibly be buying calls to make up for the increase in SP caused by covering?

 

[oneday]

Nope.

If we breach ATH next week, I'll likely sell most/all of my 2019 options and go straight to stock.

Again, not that I have an interest in holding options to expiry.

I bought some Dec 300's last spring with the intention of executing at close. Foolishly I leveraged them after "the tweet". Otherwise, in a lot of cases it's not worth it to hold to expiry. I have held a number of DITM calls all the way to expiry and it being worth it. Fridays don't always leg down like the last two weeks. Like I said before my guess is, it has to do with the fast melt up we've had over the last couple months.

 

[KarenRei]

I bought some Dec 300's last spring with the intention of executing at close. Foolishly I leveraged them after "the tweet". Otherwise, in a lot of cases it's not worth it to hold to expiry. I have held a number of DITM calls all the way to expiry and it being worth it. Fridays don't always leg down like the last two weeks. Like I said before my guess is, it has to do with the fast melt up we've had over the last couple months.

Indeed, I have no personal interest in holding to expiry; I'm just curious as to what happens if you don't have the liquidity for exercise. The IB information wasn't clear on how they decide on which way to deal with the situation.

 

[Artful Dodger]

Where did you get these charts?

Opricot Open Interest|Volume|Max Pain

 

[AlMc]

oneday said: ↑
Anyone else looking to deleverage a bit over the upcoming holiday?

Nope.

I actually bought some shares for my IRA at 365ish.

EDIT: BTW: Highest price I have ever paid for some TSLA

 

[XHabjab]

Research suggests that if you are like most customers then you most likely already made your decision regarding those purchase questions in the first 1-3 seconds, and now you are just trying to rationalize that decision to yourself and your wife - without even realizing that you are doing this.

A couple of good excuses to go Performance, if you are on the lookout for some:

• Those 10,000 Euros as just numbers stored in a computer system, while the Model 3 Performance is real.
• The pain of paying will be felt only once - the joy of having the car will be for years.
  
• Acceleration is felt exponentially - "1 second faster" doesn't do it justice.
• Higher motor performance helps quite a bit on highway speeds - EV motor torque drops at higher RPMs.
• "Track mode".
  
• When driving with your wife you can always enable Chill Mode, so they won't even notice what you truly have there.
  
• The higher acceleration might also allow you to escape a T-bone accident at 100+ mph alive:

Another amazing story that Tesla makes the one of the safest family cars. : teslamotors​

• "Performance" orders will probably be served first.

Not advice.

Way to go. Now you made me want to trade in my 100D for a P100D.

 

[gora321]

https://www.facebook.com/video.php?v=10156978822205452

I will not beg. I will do!

 

[Tslynk67]

Way to go. Now you made me want to trade in my 100D for a P100D.

Don't feel angsty, 100D is a great car, just a bit slow...

 

[jbih]

Jesus, where is Germany ???

In Germany, there is a 4000 EUR incentive, of which the manufacturer has to pay 2000. Maybe that is why Tesla is waiting with configurations in Germany?

 

[hobbes]

What I'm thinking is that it is not just the market makers that move the price toward max pain. But if option holders close their positions as if the price will converge to max pain, then that too removes the hedge that option writers would hold. Suppose you held an a call option with $375 yesterday while max pain was $360. The hedge option writer would have been holding about ~ 55 shares against your call option. If you sold your option to such an option write, they would in turn sell the hedge of 55 shares. So the sell of your call option would have cascaded into downward selling pressure. If enough of this is going on in aggregate, then the net selling pressure pushes the price closer to max pain. This linkage has little do with a market maker trying to minimize pay out; rather it is triggered by the desire of option holders not to lose value under the belief that the price will settle near max pain.

But to be clear, I am not a MaxPain folk. I'm just trying to understand the market mechanisms at work around it.

I think it is not even limited Market Makers and option holders - consider someone just holding plain shares. If price is below published Max Pain, share holder thinks he can make some money by buying while it is low etc. Same thing why IMHO technical analysis works if people believe in it.

All general market psychology with people trying to predict what the rest of the market is going to do an base their trading decision on that. As opposed to trading on actual info on the company itself.

 

[peopleweb]

William Decker on Twitter
Does it seem that the delivery system is still not smooth?

 

[Tslynk67]

William Decker on Twitter
Does it seem that the delivery system is still not smooth?

Looks like a hijacked account to me - look at the history very suspect and you certainly don't Tweet like that when you have a business contract... I will report it.

 

[RobStark]

William Decker on Twitter
Does it seem that the delivery system is still not smooth?

He hashtags FoxNews LOL.

 

[Thekiwi]

Weekend OT:

How does Hyundai sell this for $37k? Selling at a loss or break even/?

2019 HYUNDAI KONA ELECTRIC PRICING CONFIRMS AN UNPRECEDENTED SUB-$30K ELECTRIC CROSSOVER VALUE WITH 258 MILES OF RANGE VIEW ONLINE

• Kona Electric Starts Below $30,000 with Available $7,500 Tax Credit
• Generous 258-Mile Estimated Range Meets More Varied Lifestyle Needs
• New Electric CUV offers Youthful Design, Sporty Driving Character, Leading Safety Technology and Advanced Infotainment Features in an Affordable, Compact Footprint
• Abundant Suite of Standard Safety Equipment

FOUNTAIN VALLEY, Calif., Dec. 14, 2018 – Hyundai today announced the starting price for its long-awaited 2019 Kona Electric convention-breaking electric crossover. The Kona Electric starting price is $36,450, for an effective net price of $28,950 ($29,995 including delivery), with the electric vehicle tax credit of $7,500 factored in. Customers may receive the available federal tax credit of up to $7,500, dependent on individual tax circumstances, yielding a sub-$30,000 net value.

Pricing for other Kona Electric trims will be announced shortly.
Kona Electric rides on an all-new CUV platform and is Hyundai’s first compact electric crossover for the U.S. market, appealing to consumers with active, eco-focused lifestyles of all kinds. Kona Electric models will be produced in Ulsan, Korea and will be available in the beginning of 2019, with initial availability in California and subsequently in the ZEV-focused states in the western and northeastern regions of the U.S. market.

“Our new Kona Electric crossover is an exceptionally affordable, stylish and efficient compact electric CUV, tailored to the needs of customers who pursue eco-focused active lifestyles requiring generous range,” said Mike O’Brien, vice president of Product, Corporate and Digital Planning, Hyundai Motor America. “We’re confident it will set new standards for the electric-propelled compact CUV segment, with outstanding value, range flexibility, appealing design, cutting-edge connectivity, and class-leading available safety features.”

 

[Tslynk67]

He hashtags FoxNews LOL.

Indeed, $TSLAQ have hacked the account for sure.

 

[Tslynk67]

Looks like a hijacked account to me - look at the history very suspect and you certainly don't Tweet like that when you have a business contract... I will report it.

Also note that the @temp_worker who magically appeared in the conversation sounding all concerned for everyone's well-being, is, tah-dahhh! Shorty AirFarce...

 

[arne-nl]

Waiting is over it seems.

William Decker on Twitter

 

[Fact Checking]

In Germany, there is a 4000 EUR incentive, of which the manufacturer has to pay 2000. Maybe that is why Tesla is waiting with configurations in Germany?

Could be a number of reasons:

• Germany is the largest expected market for the Model 3 (larger than Norway I think), and they'd want to first measure demand in other EU markets, to calibrate:
  • pricing,
  • mix of Performance vs. Long Range,
  • delivery estimates.
• Germany has a new, very generous EV incentive starting on January 1, affecting about 800,000 corporate car purchases per year. I don't know the exact tax rules but maybe there is a peak of such sales in January due to the financial year of many corporations starting on January 1, and thus Tesla wants to shift some of the demand to those corporate customers.

They can probably meet whatever they promise to 1,000 Belgian reservation holders - but if they misjudge demand for 20,000 German customers and they give them a delivery estimate they'll miss by 2 months (the second European batch will be made in April and delivered in May at the earliest) there's going to be a lot of (justified) complaints exactly when Tesla wants lots of happy early customers the most.

I'd be surprised if configurator didn't open in the next 2-4 days - if it doesn't then there's probably some other reason for the delay.