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TSLA Market Action: 2018 Investor Roundtable

Discussion in 'TSLA Investor Discussions' started by AudubonB, Dec 30, 2017.

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  1. tivoboy

    tivoboy Active Member

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    The problem with the Q4 argument as a positive is that it MUST meet or exceed the expectations. Based on what they have done and orders and EOY and the USA federal tax credit, they should have no reason to NOT meet or exceed the expectations. and if they DO they have only MET expectations. If for any reason they don't meet AND exceed, that would be bad IMHO. Based on Q3, production ramp, demand, market forces this should be the EASY quarter.
     
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  2. Intl Professor

    Intl Professor Active Member

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    But management never interferes in the news side like any well-run news organization. It's built into their dna.:rolleyes:
     
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  3. Fact Checking

    Fact Checking Well-Known Member

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    Turns out that drop was a headfake and NASDAQ produced a nice breakout.

    Part of it could be the U.S. pending home sales housing news from today which is showing a slowdown - which would make Fed rate hikes less likely in 2019 - which is bullish news.

    But the government shutdown uncertainty is still looming large.
     
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  4. SebastianR

    SebastianR Active Member

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    This answers the question why they only want to produce 20k of them a year... makes perfect sense if you ask me and is great advertising: if you have the money for a Porsche, you get a nice electric one. If you don’t they have some old fuel burning Macans for you, too. (Reminds me of the time a boss of mine was proud to show off his Boxter- folks kept saying “that’s good for you; but didn’t you speak of getting a Porsche one day? When will you get a real Porsche?”)
     
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  5. Motor Mouth

    Motor Mouth Supporting Member

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    Taycan Turbo. Is there anything more demonstrative of the tightrope walking that legacy auto makers seem to think is necessary? Of course, they're pricing it like a supercar. They can't make very many of them and the spec's won't be particularly competitive with the S or probably even the 3P. Totally agree with Sebastian, they're just going to use it to sell cheaper Porches.
     
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  6. Zhelko Dimic

    Zhelko Dimic Careful bull

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    Nothing stupid about it.
    This is nomenclature their customers understand.
    They are not talking to people on this forum.
    Porsche isn't looking for EV enthusiasts, it's looking to sell to Porsche customers, and Turbo/Turbo S are highest models in the lineup even when every car in the 911 lineup has turbos.
     
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  7. Buckminster

    Buckminster Active Member

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    Turbo just means you get a sticker on top of the standard model. A bit like when you get an Apple sticker with your iPad. Sticker is pretty cool though:
     
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  8. sparcs

    sparcs Active Member

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    That's exactly why Q4 is critical. It sets up a base of support for sustainable quarters going forward.

    Q4 is only based on North America. Q1 and Q2 next year will have help from Europe and China. You're looking at 4 quarters of profits and possible S&P 500 inclusion at that point.
     
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  9. Buckminster

    Buckminster Active Member

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  10. Pezpunk

    Pezpunk Active Member

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    i'm willing to bet every Porsche customer understands there's no turbocharger in an electric car.
     
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  11. Open Interest

    Open Interest Supporting Member

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    Hats off to Tivoboy, who called $335 this week! I didn’t expect such a quick bounce back.
     
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  12. Motor Mouth

    Motor Mouth Supporting Member

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    That's kinda my point. It's like putting playing cards in your spokes. It sounds cool, but doesn't make you go faster.
     
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  13. Fact Checking

    Fact Checking Well-Known Member

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    I'm willing to be a counterparty to that bet!! ;)

     
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  14. Buckminster

    Buckminster Active Member

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    My thinking is that a profitable quarter (slightly more so than Q3) is a given. Clever shorts know it too. That won't stop them FUDDING us though. They have killed us with much more positive stories around previously. The most obvious being the introduction of the SR will screw margins or China tariff impact. I expect that we will win but wouldn't be surprised if SP is less than 450.
    Now, if Q1 looks like this we have a different story to tell:

    May 19 B$445, SB$545; Finishing B$520, SB$640
    • Q2 earnings and call B+30, SB+30
      • Solar roof ramp update (~H1 '19)
      • Storage reporting positive margins in H1 - Elon estimated 20% by Q1
      • MY -1m reservations?
      • 3rd profitable quarter in a row
      • "Threat of bankruptcy" FUD ends
      • Pictures/video released of Fremont M3 dreadnought 0.5
    • Positive P/E ratio B+10, SB+10
    • Some of the really large shorts capitulating - Andrew Left alone had a big demoralizing effect on shorts. What would a Chanos or Einhorn capitulation do? Shorts very much have herd mentality, and if the alpha bull panics ... B+0, SB+0
    • S&P 500 inclusion (after Q1 / Q2 results, maybe) B+30, SB+50
    • Short squeeze? - No impact on SP (Haha - just add a zero to above figures..)
    • Legislative developments on federal tax credit extension bill - when? B+5, SB+5
    • Other positives B+0, SB+0
     
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  15. Buckminster

    Buckminster Active Member

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    Don't look back in anger I heard you say...
     
  16. tinm

    tinm 2020 Model S LR+ Owner

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    dumb question: B means? SB means?

     
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  17. Buckminster

    Buckminster Active Member

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    335 is important because a mere 20% rise following delivery report will have us break 400...
     
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  18. lascavarian

    lascavarian Member

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    Why that would be ludicrous!
     
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  19. Stretch2727

    Stretch2727 Engineer and Car Nut

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    I tend to agree. People that buy a Porsche know cars and what a Turbo does. Even if everyone does not know, using Turbo in the name of an electric car makes Porsche look silly to the people that do know cars. They need to be more creative here.
     
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  20. Buckminster

    Buckminster Active Member

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    My Bull prediction versus my Super Bull prediction. I am always wrong if that helps...
     
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