TSLA Market Action: 2018 Investor Roundtable

[JRP3]

After incentives the net cost of the MR car is $30k (!)

I wonder how quickly i cold get hired at Tesla? I'd sweep floors, clean toilets, whatever, then let Elon rage fire me as he often does

 

[Artful Dodger]

Short interest only slightly up while the price tanked. Algos and longs are selling due to the overall market. Don’t see how the market can drop much more than it has... economy is fine

Much shorting occurs via non-FINRA monitored institutions. Yes MMs have special exemptions which allow them to sell naked shorts. The SEC needs to get a grip on this obvious, blantant, and widespread abuse of trust. MMs are effectively issuing shares of TSLA thereby seriously diluting the SP, all without an actual Investor who owned shares.

There were some discussion about Larry for one of the independent BoD pick. I think someone mentioned it was not possible since he is a major shareholder in tesla / friend with elon musk in private, and therefore does not satisfy independence requirement, or something.

I agreed. A long time ago. On a message board far, far away (BTW, only got 1 'like' when I posted my preference for Larry Elison on Nov 7, 2018. You're welcome).

Larry Ellison's appointment to the Tesla board has significant anti-dilutive effects.

Lock down his shares, wot? And he could easily put a hard floor on the SP with a standing 'Buy' order which creeps up incrementally with each Financials report.

I _really_ _really_ like max pain for 1-18-2019 (i tell you 3 times this is real)
edit:
(possibly glitchy, but really likeable
Max Pain | Maximum-Pain.com

Max Payne that far out is about as good as a weather forecast for that day

Yes, Open Interest is the interesting parameter. Look for movement toward the $360 Strike price, while keeping an eye on the $400 Calls.

Cheers!

 

[SebastianR]

Weekend OT

I wrote a post about this recently, I think in terms of cargo space and ergonomics the Model 3 can hold up with many hatchbacks and station wagons.

"Surprisingly spacious" is a common reaction of Tesla first-timers.

It won't satisfy all station wagon and hatchback fans - but I think it's a real option to many of them.

Indeed, I'm one of these station wagon guys. A few things come to mind. Firstly, my current Audi station wagon is surprisingly "not spacious" i.e. there were a few situations where I thought I could pack something but I simply couldn't fit the item since the interior is not as wide / high as you would think. I estimate the old Volvos to have about twice the storage space...

Secondly, if all you need is space and don't care too much about how it is shaped, then the Model 3 is a no-brainer: it has ample of places to store stuff. However, if you want to load e.g. a fridge you might be out of luck with the Model 3 where both Model S and a station wagon would be fine (European size fridge, not US size fridge my friends ;-) ).
What would really make my day would be a towing hitch: not that I want to haul a caravan across the continent but If there was a way to attach my road bike without the need to fiddle with a roof rack or get a small trailer to carry some lumber (or said fridge) a few kilometers back home from the store - that would REALLY go a long way to alleviate the issues for me as a station wagon guy.

 

[avoigt]

I tend to agree. People that buy a Porsche know cars and what a Turbo does. Even if everyone does not know, using Turbo in the name of an electric car makes Porsche look silly to the people that do know cars. They need to be more creative here.

The important information this naming includes is the resistance from Porsche Management and Engineering teams in their mindset to move fully EV.

It may sound like a small tidbit of information and people make jokes about it but it does tell us that they still live in the old world of ICEs. I believe this will remain for a longer period of time and its actually quite normal given that their legacy is the combustion engine.

Their main mission is right now to transition the Porsche DNA from ICE to BEV and their biggest fear is that what they called the biggest asset from Porsche which is a particular driving emotion will disappear, dilute or get comparable.

Time will tell but my gut feel is that the difference between driving a Porsche versus other sports cars in the old disappearing world of ICEs will be reduced if not vanish in the new world of BEVs.

If that's the case than its a threat to the business model of Porsche.

 

[Artful Dodger]

I _really_ _really_ like max pain for 1-18-2019 (i tell you 3 times this is real)
edit:
(possibly glitchy, but really likeable
Max Pain | Maximum-Pain.com

Sadly, Opricot disagrees:

Yeah, Karen is right. The major action for Jan 18, 2019 is at the $360 Strike price:

Option Graphs
Tesla Inc (TSLA) as of 12/29/2018 7:13:12 AM
Expiration 1/18/2019

• Highest Put Strike: 360.0
• Highest Put Volume: 1648
• Highest Call Strike: 360.0
• Highest Call Volume: 2341

The most 'striking' aspect of the current distribution of Options Contracts is that both the Highest Put Strike and the Highest Call Strike price both occur at $360. This will be a powerful attractor for the SP as trading continues toward Jan 18, 2019.

A second notable feature of this chart is that there is a 2nd significant spike in CALL Options only (not PUTS) at the $400 Strike Price. Currently there are about 1,850 open Contracts at that price for the 1/18/2019 expiry, representing an addtional 185,000 shares for a minimum share value of $74 Million if fully executed.

That's just over 0.1% of TSLA total market cap as a 'side-bet' lotto-ticket type play.

So it's gonna be facinating to watch TSLA MA in early Jan as both MMs and Investors jockey for positions on the big day. Popcorn (and dry powder) ready.

Cheers!

 

[Singer3000]

On the Larry Ellison appointment, lots of media noise highlighting him being a “close friend of Elon” and hence not being truly independent due to conflict of interest. Perhaps the “Independent Media” would like to first read the Nasdaq rules around Independent Directors:

http://media.corporate-ir.net/media_files/irol/87/87823/corpgov/nasdaq_marketplace_rule_4200.pdf

 

[Artful Dodger]

I wonder how quickly i cold get hired at Tesla?

Make a 'cold' call?

Cheers!

 

[Artful Dodger]

OT:

Time will tell but my gut feel is that the difference between driving a Porsche versus other sports cars in the old disappearing world of ICEs will be reduced if not vanish in the new world of BEVs.

Not if they hang the 400 kg bty pack out behind the rear axle...

Cheers!

 

[Fact Checking]

Yeah, Karen is right. The major action for Jan 18, 2019 is at the $360 Strike price:

Option Graphs
Tesla Inc (TSLA) as of 12/29/2018 7:13:12 AM
Expiration 1/18/2019

• Highest Put Strike: 360.0
• Highest Put Volume: 1648
• Highest Call Strike: 360.0
• Highest Call Volume: 2341

The most 'striking' aspect of the current distribution of Options Contracts is that both the Highest Put Strike and the Highest Call Strike price both occur at $360. This will be a powerful attractor for the SP as trading continues toward Jan 18, 2019.

A second notable feature of this chart is that there is a 2nd significant spike in CALL Options only (not PUTS) at the $400 Strike Price. Currently there are about 1,850 open Contracts at that price for the 1/18/2019 expiry, representing an addtional 185,000 shares for a minimum share value of $74 Million if fully executed.

That's just over 0.1% of TSLA total market cap as a 'side-bet' lotto-ticket type play.

So it's gonna be facinating to watch TSLA MA in early Jan as both MMs and Investors jockey for positions on the big day. Popcorn (and dry powder) ready.

Cheers!

I think the best way to look at the 2019 Jan 18 $TSLA options open interest is the raw open interest data rounded to $10 strike prices:

 PUT $010: 37,203 ##################  ,   CALL $010:      2                 
 PUT $020: 27,284 #############       ,   CALL $020:    118                 
 PUT $030: 14,606 #######             ,   CALL $030:  1,847 #               
 PUT $040:  8,452 ####                ,   CALL $040:    284                 
 PUT $050: 87,069 ###################+,   CALL $050:     18                 
 PUT $060:  9,252 ####                ,   CALL $060:      3                 
 PUT $070: 12,702 ######              ,   CALL $070:      6                 
 PUT $080: 17,270 ########            ,   CALL $080:    300                 
 PUT $090:  9,171 ####                ,   CALL $090:    543                 
 PUT $100: 57,833 ###################+,   CALL $100:  3,271 #               
 PUT $110:  5,231 ##                  ,   CALL $110:    491                 
 PUT $120: 15,888 ########            ,   CALL $120:    121                 
 PUT $130:  5,029 ##                  ,   CALL $130:    400                 
 PUT $140:  5,244 ##                  ,   CALL $140:     44                 
 PUT $150: 26,799 #############       ,   CALL $150:    897                 
 PUT $160:  3,127 #                   ,   CALL $160:    256                 
 PUT $170:  5,746 ###                 ,   CALL $170:    635                 
 PUT $180:  8,024 ####                ,   CALL $180:    574                 
 PUT $190:  3,122 #                   ,   CALL $190:  2,351 #               
 PUT $200: 30,948 ###############     ,   CALL $200:  2,657 #               
 PUT $210:  7,519 ####                ,   CALL $210:  1,249                 
 PUT $220:  8,181 ####                ,   CALL $220:    877                 
 PUT $230: 16,554 ########            ,   CALL $230:  1,735 #               
 PUT $240: 14,209 #######             ,   CALL $240:  1,529 #               
 PUT $250: 15,131 #######             ,   CALL $250:  2,265 #               
 PUT $260:  6,313 ###                 ,   CALL $260:  1,899 #               
 PUT $270: 11,458 #####               ,   CALL $270:  1,652 #               
 PUT $280: 18,068 #########           ,   CALL $280:  1,912 #               
 PUT $290:  4,808 ##                  ,   CALL $290:  3,444 #               
 PUT $300: 16,045 ########            ,   CALL $300: 10,181 #####           
 PUT $310:  5,335 ##                  ,   CALL $310:  4,916 ##             
 PUT $320:  6,036 ###                 ,   CALL $320:  4,775 ##             
 PUT $330:  9,870 #####               ,   CALL $330:  8,526 ####           
 PUT $340: 18,795 #########           ,   CALL $340:  6,146 ###             
 PUT $350: 12,492 ######              ,   CALL $350: 15,927 ########       
 PUT $360:  4,661 ##                  ,   CALL $360: 11,061 #####           
 PUT $370:  3,488 #                   ,   CALL $370:  6,285 ###             
 PUT $380:  2,469 #                   ,   CALL $380:  7,824 ####           
 PUT $390:  1,371                     ,   CALL $390:  5,018 ##             
 PUT $400:  3,195 #                   ,   CALL $400: 25,779 #############   
 PUT $410:    900                     ,   CALL $410:  4,922 ##             
 PUT $420:  1,049                     ,   CALL $420:  8,423 ####           
 PUT $430:    411                     ,   CALL $430:  3,960 ##             
 PUT $440:    648                     ,   CALL $440:  5,059 ##             
 PUT $450:    231                     ,   CALL $450:  5,060 ##             
 PUT $460:      0                     ,   CALL $460:  1,956 #               
 PUT $470:      5                     ,   CALL $470:  1,914 #               
 PUT $480:     27                     ,   CALL $480:  2,386 #               
 PUT $490:      5                     ,   CALL $490:  1,363                 
 PUT $500:  2,005 #                   ,   CALL $500: 12,172 ######         
 PUT $510:      8                     ,   CALL $510:    552                 
 PUT $520:      0                     ,   CALL $520:    984                 
 PUT $530:      1                     ,   CALL $530:    592                 
 PUT $540:      8                     ,   CALL $540:    472                 
 PUT $550:    214                     ,   CALL $550:  3,323 #               
 PUT $560:      0                     ,   CALL $560:  1,136                 
 PUT $570:      0                     ,   CALL $570:    323                 
 PUT $580:     50                     ,   CALL $580:  1,922 #               
 PUT $590:      7                     ,   CALL $590:    831                 
 PUT $600:    338                     ,   CALL $600: 24,542 ############   
 PUT $610:      0                     ,   CALL $610:  3,602 ##             
 PUT $620:      0                     ,   CALL $620:  1,400                 
 PUT $630:      0                     ,   CALL $630:    440                 
 PUT $640:      0                     ,   CALL $640:    474                 
 PUT $650:      5                     ,   CALL $650:  3,075 #               
 PUT $660:     22                     ,   CALL $660:    552                 
 PUT $670:      0                     ,   CALL $670:    834                 
 PUT $680:      2                     ,   CALL $680: 14,886 #######         
 PUT $690:      0                     ,   CALL $690:    640

Open interest per expiry date:

2018/Dec/28:  PUTs:    38,475 ; CALLs:    26,188
2019/Jan/04:  PUTs:    26,247 ; CALLs:    26,769
2019/Jan/11:  PUTs:     9,727 ; CALLs:    10,064
2019/Jan/18:  PUTs:   585,724 ; CALLs:   251,881
2019/Jan/25:  PUTs:     3,636 ; CALLs:     4,732
2019/Feb/01:  PUTs:     1,414 ; CALLs:     3,054
2019/Feb/08:  PUTs:       198 ; CALLs:       619
2019/Feb/15:  PUTs:    43,792 ; CALLs:    43,953
2019/Mar/15:  PUTs:   147,959 ; CALLs:    49,501
2019/Jun/21:  PUTs:    93,995 ; CALLs:    47,653
2019/Aug/16:  PUTs:    34,375 ; CALLs:    15,979
2020/Jan/17:  PUTs:   213,052 ; CALLs:    81,100
2020/Jun/19:  PUTs:     5,298 ; CALLs:     2,276
      total:  PUTs: 1,212,824 ; CALLs:   572,537

The following features are obvious from the distribution:

• The 2019 January 18 expiry week is absolutely fricking huge: it was the LEAP expiry date for two years and has accumulated a lot of 'bankwuptcy bets' - over 830,000 options contracts, which is 83 million $TSLA share-equivalent derivatives positions ...
• Unlike this week's or the Jan 4 or Jan 11 expiries, market makers will be keenly watching the January 18 expiry. I'd expect peak FUD in that week as well, from short seller aligned media interests. The delivery report will be downplayed, Tesla will be portrayed to be in a growth crisis from dropping demand if they 'only' grow deliveries by say 10% quarter-to-quarter - you name it. The WSJ, the NYT the Financial Times - every major outlet will chime in, and I expect them to agitate furiously on the side of the short sellers.
  
• 97% of PUT options expire worthless at $350 and above closing prices
• 75% of CALL options expire worthless below $350
• The PUT/CALL ratio is still 2.3, which is very high compared to the <1.0 ratios of recent expiries. 18th of January is the last big bet of short sellers to earn a lot of money through options on $TSLA.
• I.e. for market makers and large counter-parties it will be far more important for the price to stay above $350 than for it to stay below it. For large shorts with price setting trading power still left the key level is $340, every dollar drop below that will earn them ~20 million more dollars than prices above $340.
  
• In terms of price consensus:
  • On the PUT side there's no clear consensus - it's all over the place from $100 to $350.
  • On the CALL side the price consensus is in the $350-$400 range. If we disregard the $400 spike (the short-squeeze bets) then the price consensus is centered around $350.
• This does suggest that absent large volatility after the delivery report, the max pain point would be at around $350.

 

[AndyH]

Weekend OT

What would really make my day would be a towing hitch: not that I want to haul a caravan across the continent but If there was a way to attach my road bike without the need to fiddle with a roof rack or get a small trailer to carry some lumber (or said fridge) a few kilometers back home from the store - that would REALLY go a long way to alleviate the issues for me as a station wagon guy.

Mine too. Lots of people in Sweden wont buy a Model 3 without a towing hook. There have been early hints from Elon that it's coming but I haven't heard anything lately and the option isn't available when ordering.

Ps. A road bike shouldn't be left out in the dirt and rain. Keep it inside the car where it's dry and warm.

 

[Artful Dodger]

I work at Oracle and Ellison said he would never be a Director at Tesla in an internal meeting recently. He said he has too much to do already.

Nicely done, Larry! Apparently you CAN fool most of the people some of the time.

Cheers!

 

[Artful Dodger]

I think the best way to look at the 2019 Jan 18 $TSLA options open interest is...

Who ARE you?!

 

[Chickenlittle]

Nicely done, Larry! Apparently you CAN fool most of the people some of the time.

Cheers!


View attachment 364593

Nothing to do just nod yes to what Elon says

 

[Chickenlittle]

Mine too. Lots of people in Sweden wont buy a Model 3 without a towing hook. There have been early hints from Elon that it's coming but I haven't heard anything lately and the option isn't available when ordering.

Ps. A road bike shouldn't be left out in the dirt and rain. Keep it inside the car where it's dry and warm.

Can’t design a car for everyone, so perhaps modelY will have option

 

[lklundin]

The other is what technical approach they're taking to manage 350kW charging on high energy-density cells.

Frequent battery replacement?

Seriously, In the context of charging power, Porsche's constant mentioning of their 700 V voltage has relevance only for the thickness of the charging cable.

The fundamental issue is that for the given battery size, tripling the charging power (relative to Tesla's current Supercharger), triples the C-rate which is detrimental to the long-term health of each cell.

So maybe Porsche is betting that owners of the Taycan will not mind the more frequent replacements (or upgrades) of the battery pack...

 

[Silent Ludicrosy]

“Turbo” is no longer the gimmicky marketing term of the 80s used for non-turbine things. Sir Mixalot legitimized the term in 1992 by rapping the line “got it goin like a turbo Vette.” Since then turbo has been used on only the most premium products.

I don’t know how Tesla will be able to compete.

 

[Artful Dodger]

WEEKEND OFF-TOPIC: (Con't)

Microsoft acquired Sysinternals.com and all its assets in July 2006, rebranding it Winternals.com

Prediction: Porsche hacking becomes a thing.

Advice? Register the Domain Name "Porschternals.com"

LOL!

 

[Fact Checking]

So maybe Porsche is betting that owners of the Taycan will not mind the more frequent replacements (or upgrades) of the battery pack...

Also, many of them will home charge 99% of the time. So Porsche might be using 350kW charging as a marketing gimmick.

 

[Mader Levap]

Since I expect U.S. conservatives to be one of the greenest parties in 10 years (once the influence of coal and oil billionaires fades in the GOP), it's perhaps the first signs of much needed reform.

Strong disagree. As long as republicans are right-wing party friendly to business, they will be inherently hostile to - among other things - anything involving protection and care for environment, since these are unfriendly for business (incurring costs that could be avoidable, just dump that *sugar* into soil, air and water - all hail negative externalities!). They will resist and oppose anything in this direction as much as possible.

There's no fundamental conflict between conservatism and environmentalism: "conservation of nature" is "conservative" in the purest sense of the word.

Yeah, and communism is cool moneyless utopia.

 

[homer214]

New Elon email leaked:

They are pushing inventory in Q4 hard for employees beta testing HW3: free EAP and FSD ($8k off) and $5k reduction for premium interior.

After incentives the net cost of the MR car is $30k (!). I expect all these cars gone within the hour.

Working for Tesla does have its perks. I expect nothing less than a gangbusters 4Q for TSLA.