TSLA Market Action: 2018 Investor Roundtable

[mongo]

Certainly this is true for actual battery production, but TE requirements gives GF1 flexibility in producing battery packs. A slowdown at Fremont can benefit power walls and power pack production. Flexibility is important. (I have trouble putting on socks!!)

Only in terms of shared resources. TE cell chemistry is different from TM and module/ pack equipment is different also.
With the cell aging process, they need a ~month? look ahead for switching cell type production. Given the slow 3 ramp, if they don't already have a huge TE cell inventory, then the Panasonic equipment may be specific to cell chemistry...

 

[defc0n]

Inching closer to my short term price target. A few weeks away still from Musk's 3-week warning.

 

[Reciprocity]

Nasdaq down 200, which would be down 750 if it was the down, which is only down 430.

 

[bdy0627]

History has shown that when blood drains down the road of Wallstreet its usually a good day to buy.

The issues with that is to quote Kroose who shot a fabulous goal for Germany this weekend at the soccer championship "(...) you have to have the balls and make it (...)"

as always no investment advice.....

Just be careful thinking this dip is over and buying too soon. Sometimes it's best to do nothing and let the dust settle. You can always add then.

 

[Reciprocity]

Just be careful thinking this dip is over and buying too soon. Sometimes it's best to do nothing and let the dust settle. You can always add then.

The market was down 1600 pts one day in Feb, so yeah. This is a like a sunny day in shortsville compared to that. It can get stormy real fast.

 

[Henchman]

Just be careful thinking this dip is over and buying too soon. Sometimes it's best to do nothing and let the dust settle. You can always add then.

Depends on what your goal is.
Daytading? Yes.

Longterm, 5-10 year hold?
$10 one way or the other is going to be insignificant.

 

[Pale Blue Dot]

Why would production be affected by the 200k FIT credit? No reason to reduce production, only deliveries

Storage issues. Where do you put an extra 30K non delivered cars in transit? Rent and transport expense to spread all this inventory out over the state plus the headache of inventory management at all these pop up holding lots. Also extra insurance for abnormally large off site inventory. You also don't want your supplier A/P coming due too far ahead of the sales revenue.

 

[JRP3]

What do you mean by "forced?" If you mean "in order to access capital," then we agree. Public companies have access to more capital sources.

You can't strip away the positives from an option, and say the actor would not "want to" act on the option based solely on the negatives...

Elon doesn't want to take it public. If he ends up doing something he does not want to do then he is being forced, which is negative.

 

[jhm]

TSLA is only down 1.3% while Nasdaq falls 2.6%. I think TSLA is ready to come roaring back once the market stabilizes. This is an opportunity to buy on market weakness as TSLA gathers strength. I think we are quite close to never seeing shares below $330 again.

 

[JRP3]

Only in terms of shared resources. TE cell chemistry is different from TM and module/ pack equipment is different also.
With the cell aging process, they need a ~month? look ahead for switching cell type production. Given the slow 3 ramp, if they don't already have a huge TE cell inventory, then the Panasonic equipment may be specific to cell chemistry...

Cell aging is 2 weeks.

 

[Curt Renz]

History has shown that when blood drains down the road of Wallstreet its usually a good day to buy...

TSLA is only down 1.3% while Nasdaq falls 2.6%. I think TSLA is ready to come roaring back once the market stabilizes. This is an opportunity to buy on market weakness as TSLA gathers strength. I think we are quite close to never seeing shares below $330 again.

Indeed, Tesla shares may be in the red today, but they are easily holding up better than the market averages, tech stocks and other auto stocks. That may bode quite well for Tesla once this trade war induced market correction ends.

 

[Tslynk67]

Yes, I also think that $TSLA is a stock that wanted desperately to rise today, but got beaten-up by the macro-bullies.

All those folks bailing out of $NFLX could do a lot worse than shift some money to $TSLA.

While we're all wringing our hands at the sea of red, just to mention that Norway's looking vert nice this quarter, I wouldn't be surprised if we don't end up 100% more than 2Q17. They even did some deliveries at the weekend, which is unusual, but indicates to me they have a boat coming in...

 

[wipster]

LOL. I think I might be running out of pop corns. Was saving this for 1 week later for the short burn. Sometimes, I wish TSLA is just a boring stock that rises steadily so I don't have to constantly keep on top of the news.

But hey, my own fault for getting into it for the pop corn value.

You need some Jiffy Pop stock!

 

[lklundin]

Tesla stock falls after Bernstein issues cautious note on services margins, automotive gross margins

Shocking, Sacconaghi has something negative to say about Tesla

Well, I have something negative to say about Sacconaghi's number skills.

Sacconaghi's looks at Tesla's service margins in two consecutive years, 2016 and 2017, where they are 66M$ and 266M$ (or something like that, the actual values are irrelevant).

Sacconaghi describes this as growing "exponentially'.

The problem is that any two non-zero and non-equal data points can be fitted to an exponential function.

So clearly Sacconaghi does not know what 'exponentially' really means and seems to just equate it with 'a lot'.

Now, if the underlying information would provide us with a priori knowledge that a service margin would follow a learning curve or something of that nature, then one could assume the change to be exponential (in that case doubling about every three months). But without that, one could make an equally nonsensical assumption that the service margin would be linear, with an annual growth of 200 M$.

While in reality it is surely something else.

So, no respect for Sacconaghi from my side.

 

[dc_h]

Canada Model 3 Deliveries

ValueAnalyst on Twitter

This is interesting. There a large variance in estimates for Model 3 deliveries in Canada: nobody really knows.

Somebody knows.

 

[dandurston]

Somebody knows.

Just low value anecdotal evidence, but I'd never seen a M3 here in western Canada until this past week. Since then I've seen three different ones on the road, so it looks like they're popping up.

Also anecdotal, I haven't been invited to configure yet and I've got my preference set to LR PUP, so Tesla mustn't be running low on Canadian reservations (I reserved three months ago).

 

[dc_h]

What do you mean by "forced?" If you mean "in order to access capital," then we agree. Public companies have access to more capital sources.

You can't strip away the positives from an option, and say the actor would not "want to" act on the option based solely on the negatives...

Based on the shorts attempt to drive him to bankruptcy and the wasted time and effort, thenodds of SpaceX going public is a number approaching zero. If Tesla was private the model 3 delivery schedule would have been less rushed and timed about the same with no drama. Solar city would have been done without the drama and they would have just securitized the long term contracts. Tesla had a big win on the last short squeeze, and maybe July will be a repeat, but a short squeeze could be tempered by macros, or the market not being as impressed with Elon’s big July reveal.

I expect the delayed 200,000 delivery will make for an amazing second half in the USA and TE approaching 500 million in q4, which I think is likely will,propel,the stock, but long term, just following fundamentals of expected future earnings would get us to the same place without all this politics of shorting. instead the stock is held back for now and will likely overshoot intrinsic value at some point this year setting up another short battle.

 

[jelloslug]

Based on the shorts attempt to drive him to bankruptcy and the wasted time and effort, thenodds of SpaceX going public is a number approaching zero. If Tesla was private the model 3 delivery schedule would have been less rushed and timed about the same with no drama. Solar city would have been done without the drama and they would have just securitized the long term contracts. Tesla had a big win on the last short squeeze, and maybe July will be a repeat, but a short squeeze could be tempered by macros, or the market not being as impressed with Elon’s big July reveal.

I expect the delayed 200,000 delivery will make for an amazing second half in the USA and TE approaching 500 million in q4, which I think is likely will,propel,the stock, but long term, just following fundamentals of expected future earnings would get us to the same place without all this politics of shorting. instead the stock is held back for now and will likely overshoot intrinsic value at some point this year setting up another short battle.

I would not be surprised that once Tesla becomes profitable for a while, they would not start buying back their stock.

 

[EinSV]

I would not be surprised that once Tesla becomes profitable for a while, they would not start buying back their stock.

Elon has already started his own personal "buyback" program. With purchases in May and June, I wouldn't be surprised to see it continue in July, especially if the SP stays depressed.

As far as a "real" buyback program, capital demands make that highly unlikely for a very long time IMO.

 

[jhm]

Harley-Davidson will move some production out of US after retaliatory tariffs

Harley-Davidson will move production to Europe to avoid effects of trade war.

This is one reason why Tesla needs production capacity in Europe and Asia ASAP.