TSLA Market Action: 2018 Investor Roundtable

[mongo]

Perspective and optimism I suppose

Deffinately!

Also hitting these numbers at end of the last possible week/day is meaningless

what they said they would do in the Q4 letter (end of Q1). I think hitting their projected target is very meaningful (if done in a valid way).

 

[AlMc]

Well, that is the big question. How will the algos/bots be set up for the end of the month/early April report on deliveries for Q1? will they put a higher priority on the numbers delivered or the model 3 production rate exiting Q1? By the ER time in May we will most likely be seeing 2.5k+ production rate based on deliveries/new VIN registrations so even if the ER is not great in terms of 'cash' the CC should be able to overcome it at that point.

Tesla definitely keeps things 'interesting' for TSLA investors.

 

[schonelucht]

Reminiscent of the discussion early this year when they released their Q4 description of production last weeks. Plenty here warned that you need to parse the language and that Tesla is very willing to paint a picture that is much prettier than reality in their communication. But plenty here as well dismissed these concerns and took the 1000/week run rate for granted. In the end reality showed quite clearly that Tesla was by far not ready for a 1k/week run rate and that the pretty language in the 8-K was exactly that : pretty language. But yes, this hasn't been the first case that investors are just too gullible and just assume that this time it is going to be different. So who knows what happens when end of quarter they come out with something like 'we shipped 2600 battery packs in the last week of the quarter'. Again there will be those (like me) who are going to be negative nancies and others who take this as : bottleneck is over, Tesla is at 2500/week production rate.

So while I would think that the stock price deserves a slight reset on the factual observation that the 1k/week at the end of the year wasn't real and that the 2500/wk at the end of this quarter is far from certain when such news comes out, I will not be surprised if the stock actually goes up.

All of this is assuming that Tesla does not deliver 7500 Model 3's in the next 3 weeks.

 

[JRP3]

So while I would think that the stock price deserves a slight reset on the factual observation that the 1k/week at the end of the year wasn't real

Not sure why the stock price deserves a reset for something Tesla never claimed.

 

[schonelucht]

Not sure why the stock price deserves a reset for something Tesla never claimed.

The reset is deserved based on actions and expections of Tesla investors. Tesla doesn't set the price of course.

 

[JRP3]

So while I would think that the stock price deserves a slight reset on the factual observation that the 1k/week at the end of the year wasn't real

I read this as you suggesting the stock price is in some way tied to the 1k/week "claim", but it was actually never claimed by Tesla to be at a 1k/week production rate.

 

[Reciprocity]

Reminiscent of the discussion early this year when they released their Q4 description of production last weeks. Plenty here warned that you need to parse the language and that Tesla is very willing to paint a picture that is much prettier than reality in their communication. But plenty here as well dismissed these concerns and took the 1000/week run rate for granted. In the end reality showed quite clearly that Tesla was by far not ready for a 1k/week run rate and that the pretty language in the 8-K was exactly that : pretty language. But yes, this hasn't been the first case that investors are just too gullible and just assume that this time it is going to be different. So who knows what happens when end of quarter they come out with something like 'we shipped 2600 battery packs in the last week of the quarter'. Again there will be those (like me) who are going to be negative nancies and others who take this as : bottleneck is over, Tesla is at 2500/week production rate.

So while I would think that the stock price deserves a slight reset on the factual observation that the 1k/week at the end of the year wasn't real and that the 2500/wk at the end of this quarter is far from certain when such news comes out, I will not be surprised if the stock actually goes up.

All of this is assuming that Tesla does not deliver 7500 Model 3's in the next 3 weeks.

I'll be happy with 5000 and 2000+ in that last full week with a reiteration of the 5k in Q2.

Edit: if you recall, Elon explicitly said in the last CC the current bottlenecks at that time where packs (resolved by ghromann) and the conveyance system. Nothing more, nothing less. This tells me that the recent shutdown was to correct the parts deliver conveyance system, and maybe other things as well, to deliver parts for 2500+ cars per week. Maybe that required moving some of the production line to accommodate the changes. My guess is that this conveyance system is designed to the job Tesla purchased it to do. But knowing Tesla, they are trying to run it 2-14x as fast as spec.

 

[Waiting4M3]

Here's my bear-trap theory. They don't have to apply for/notify VINs very far in advance. 49 CFR 565 specifies only that the decoding information for any particular sub-type has to be submitted 60 days in advance for the sale of any such vehicle. I think the first dual motor VIN was registered about 60 days ago, but the decoding information was in place before that anyway. I couldn't find any requirement at all that specifies when an individual VIN has to be registered with them, so I am assuming it's just before the vehicle is sold. This leads me to think that maybe they're holding back submitting a bunch of VINs with many dual motors. Actual deliveries don't seem to me to have really slowed, so maybe we're soon to see a really large block of VINs and the start of dual motor deliveries. That should do nice things to the stock.

VIN registration is still ~4000 ahead of VIN assignment, so we know at least the next 4000 cars coming out will be RWD. So I would say that Tesla is not quite ready to roll AWD out in March. But it does seem that Tesla is "squeezing toothpaste" with VIN registration, the most likely reason I can think of, is that AWD is almost ready, could come out any week.

 

[sundaymorning]

The reset is deserved based on actions and expections of Tesla investors. Tesla doesn't set the price of course.

While your expectations of a reset makes sense, Tesla has missed multiple guidance on both S&X and yet the stock eventually went up. For investors like myself, I just want to see reasonable progress that ensures we are headed in the right direction while being a market leader... If Tesla sells 5 million cars per year and misses every target it announces, should investors punish the stock every Q? By this logic we should retreat back to $30 PS if Tesla continually misses every q for the next 10 years. At some point investors will have to see that progress outweighs targets, when will this happen, this Q, next Q, who knows..

 

[RobStark]

By this logic we should retreat back to $30 PS if Tesla continually misses every q for the next 10 years. At some point investors will have to see that progress outweighs targets, when will this happen, this Q, next Q, who knows..

Ten years from now if Tesla market cap is at $600B there will those bitching Elon did not hit the goal of $650B.

 

[jschwefel]

Reminiscent of the discussion early this year when they released their Q4 description of production last weeks. Plenty here warned that you need to parse the language and that Tesla is very willing to paint a picture that is much prettier than reality in their communication. But plenty here as well dismissed these concerns and took the 1000/week run rate for granted. In the end reality showed quite clearly that Tesla was by far not ready for a 1k/week run rate and that the pretty language in the 8-K was exactly that : pretty language. But yes, this hasn't been the first case that investors are just too gullible and just assume that this time it is going to be different. So who knows what happens when end of quarter they come out with something like 'we shipped 2600 battery packs in the last week of the quarter'. Again there will be those (like me) who are going to be negative nancies and others who take this as : bottleneck is over, Tesla is at 2500/week production rate.

So while I would think that the stock price deserves a slight reset on the factual observation that the 1k/week at the end of the year wasn't real and that the 2500/wk at the end of this quarter is far from certain when such news comes out, I will not be surprised if the stock actually goes up.

All of this is assuming that Tesla does not deliver 7500 Model 3's in the next 3 weeks.

Tesla will be bottle-necked until 10,000/week. All the numbers in between (1000, 2500, 5000...) are transient, temporary, and subject to change until they achieve the 10,000/week. I’m just saying.

 

[Bobfitz1]

Ten years from now if Tesla market cap is at $600B there will those bitching Elon did not hit the goal of $650B.

And bitching he is way over compensated.

 

[Drax7]

Lots of missed forecasts and apparently half truth concerning the ramp,
it erodes their credibility, Which in essence translates into greater risk.
The greater the risk the greater the price concession.

Recurring Sizzle while model 3 not yet in meaningful production
Could be construed as manipulation.

10,000 vehicles per week this year was unequivocal, now its
I believe it when I see it. 2500/ week assurances any minute now,
Is getting tiresome.

Now we encounter greater market risk plus the usual business specific
execution risk, not fun.

Please dont mention the autonomous driving solution due any
Minute.

 

[dhrivnak]

I read this as you suggesting the stock price is in some way tied to the 1k/week "claim", but it was actually never claimed by Tesla to be at a 1k/week production rate.

But they strongly inferred it. At least in my humble opinion.

 

[gene]

I've been in TSLA since 2012 and I have a substantial number of shares. Anytime I start to feel a bit negative, I simply look at the world Supercharger map. Considering there were only 6 chargers in early 2013, and seeing the continued and relentless expansion gives me the confidence I need to hang in there with no loss of sleep. Tesla reminds me of The Terminator, they just keep going, they never stop. Why should I worry about what will be little blips in history?

 

[schonelucht]

If Tesla sells 5 million cars per year and misses every target it announces, should investors punish the stock every Q? By this logic we should retreat back to $30 PS if Tesla continually misses every q for the next 10 years.

I just want to address this in isolation. It's profoundly unhelpfull to reason through a reductio at absurdum. I mean, if I were reasoning through reductio at absurdum on your claims, then there would never be any reason for the stock price to move at all. Clearly that's absurdum in the sense of being absurd, not in the sense of in being absolutely true.

 

[MitchJi]

We shall see how much influence the TSLA technicals have over general sentiment. My belief is that we will see our long anticipated move closer to the summer once we eclipse around the 3k a week mark. This will be evidence that 5k a week can likely be reached. If 5K can be reached then we know 10k is doable, largely a function of additional manufacturing equipment/lines.

They clearly stated that they don’t plan to get from 5k to 10k by adding production lines.

 

[ZeApelido]

Tesla just jacked up superchargering rates. Positive or negative effect on stock price?

 

[NicoV]

Tesla just jacked up superchargering rates. Positive or negative effect on stock price?

The European rates haven’t changed (yet).

 

[dhrivnak]

Tesla just jacked up superchargering rates. Positive or negative effect on stock price?

I predict negative unfortunately. SuperChargers are a huge difference between Tesla and the other EV makers. That huge difference is now a smaller difference.