TSLA Market Action: 2018 Investor Roundtable

[Dennisj00]

it sure is a whole lot more, no argument here. But I dont think it is very liquid, and i also think that he would rather save his majority at space x than save tesla should it really come that far (unlikely, yes)

You don’t know Elon (I don’t either but I’ve watched a lot on YouTube to quantify his background and future aspirations.)

I know a few millionaires, no billionaires and there’s no liquidity problem. Get real!

 

[ggr]

Mod: moved a bunch'a posts over to Advanced Options Trading, no problem with the posts, just trying to keep the threads clean. --ggr

 

[Krugerrand]

Yes, if you didn't catch it, I'm offended with how intolerant you are.

 

[brian45011]

Yeah maybe I should have clarified, I just meant why try and raise cash now if in six months or nine just to be safe they will likely have increased revenue greatly from model three, maybe posted a profitable quarter or two, likely improved credit ratings and stock prices.

Because it's CASH not revenue that has to increase greatly (you have to reduce the revenue by the cash consumed in producing what is being sold.)

IMO, those who castigate Moody's now as being the pawn of FUDsters may be overlooking the fact that Moody's qualified it's initial B3 rating in early August 2017 with the caveat:

"The rating could be downgraded if there are major production or quality problems for the Model 3, if consumer demand erodes to the degree that the company cannot maintain its 5,000 per week production target through 2018, or if the level of Model 3 reservations supported by $1,000 deposits fall from the current level of 455,000 to below 350,000. A ratio of EBIT/interest approximating 0.5x would also pressure the rating."

At the same time S&P, while maintaining its B- ratings on Tesla's debt, warned:

“We could lower our ratings on Tesla if execution issues related to the Model 3 launch later this year or the ongoing expansion of its Models S and X production lead to significant cost overruns,” S&P said in a statement on the bonds."

When these evaluations were made, Tesla's guidance was the it would be producing 5,000 M3s a week by the end of December and Elon had just stated in the 2Q17 earnings conference call:

“What people should absolutely have zero concern about, and I mean 0, is that Tesla will achieve a 10,000 unit production week by the end of next year. […] I think people should really not have any concerns that we won’t reach that outcome from a production rate.”
​

The credit rating agencies were vilified after the 2008 financial crisis for having conflicts of interest and being too lenient in rating the flaky debt products that were being floated as a result of the Community Reinvestment Act amendments. One would presume they would be a little gun shy, but Moody's exhibited forebearance when Tesla's guidance was pushed back twice, by a quarter each time--once in November 2017 when the 3Q17 results were announced and again in February 2018 when the 4Q17 results were announced. Whether the Bloomberg tracker is precisely accurate or not, Moody's decided it could not wait until guidance was pushed back again.

Credit ratings rise and fall based on risk assessments and execution consistent with plans. Conservative managers of other people’s money tend to go to the side lines when they fall. The high beta players could care less.

 

[Krugerrand]

so he has borrowed "a few hundred million" (lets just assume 300?) and his space x stake ist "several hundred times more" (lets again assume 300) than that. that would put his stake at 300 million x 300 = 90 billion dollars. So the value of Space x would be around 150b or so. that kind of wild exxageration is pretty close to misinformation, wouldnt you say?

Let’s assume over the Easter weekend you do some real research on Tesla, TSLA and Elon Musk. Then let’s assume you see the error of your ways. Then let’s assume someone pinches me and I wake up from the dream.

 

[Krugerrand]

Agree on Musk margin calls. He's probably fine or able scrounge some money from Space Ex. For longs, the biggest concern should be all the unresolved margin calls from investors Tues thru Thurs. I've been there, not a good situation to be in. You can stall for 3 or 4 days, but after that brokerages will force you to sell more stock or deposit more money.

I’m long. Not concerned and fail to see why I should be. I don’t have any margin calls and those that do, that’s on them. I also don’t get concerned for shorts when any of them get margin calls. In fact, no concern here at all about anything...well, except maybe the rash on my...

 

[Krugerrand]

Yikes! I'm a little concerned about our June and Septembers (mostly bought when the SP was about $296).

Okay, maybe I’ll be a bit concerned for concerned MitchJi because I like him.

 

[brian45011]

Let’s assume over the Easter weekend you do some real research on Tesla, TSLA and Elon Musk. Then let’s assume you see the error of your ways. Then let’s assume someone pinches me and I wake up from the dream.

Not Justvisiting (been here awhile):

Last year's proxy stated Elon's holdings as of 12/31/16:

"Includes (i) 33,503,668 shares held of record by the Elon Musk Revocable Trust dated July 22, 2003; (ii) 2,638,150 shares issuable to Mr. Musk upon exercise of options exercisable within 60 days after December 31, 2016; and (iii) $10,000,000 in aggregate principal amount of SolarCity’s Zero Coupon Convertible Senior Notes due 2020, convertible into 33,333 shares of Common Stock within 60 days following December 31, 2016. 11,450,723 shares pledged as collateral to secure certain personal indebtedness."
​

The SCTY zeros were converted to shares in 2017. New proxy should be filed in about 3 weeks updating information to 12/31/17.

 

[MitchJi]

Prior to the drop all J20s. Now April, May, June, September, J19, J20. I'm in everything except the black.

Okay, maybe I’ll be a bit concerned for MitchJi because I like him.

I'd be more concerned about @Tenable's April and May calls.

 

[Krugerrand]

I'd be more concerned about @Tenable's April and May calls.

Nah, I don’t like him as much as you and I have only so much concern in me to spread around. It ain’t much to start, so Tenable is on his own this go around. You’ll have to be concerned on his behalf.

 

[ggr]

Not Justvisiting (been here awhile):

Last year's proxy stated Elon's holdings as of 12/31/16:

"Includes (i) 33,503,668 shares held of record by the Elon Musk Revocable Trust dated July 22, 2003; (ii) 2,638,150 shares issuable to Mr. Musk upon exercise of options exercisable within 60 days after December 31, 2016; and (iii) $10,000,000 in aggregate principal amount of SolarCity’s Zero Coupon Convertible Senior Notes due 2020, convertible into 33,333 shares of Common Stock within 60 days following December 31, 2016. 11,450,723 shares pledged as collateral to secure certain personal indebtedness."
​

The SCTY zeros were converted to shares in 2017. New proxy should be filed in about 3 weeks updating information to 12/31/17.

So those shares converted at 11 TSLA for 100 SCTY, about 1.25 million TSLA shares. He also has/had pledged TSLA stock previously. Out of, what, 160M TSLA shares outstanding? Small single digit percentage, is I guess the point.

 

[sundaymorning]

TSLA closed at $263 in Europe, it seems to be recovering bit by bit from all these nonsense.

 

[dandurston]

Q1 is going to be another good reminder than the best predictor for quarterly production is taking the claimed exit rate for the previous quarter and assuming that will be the steady rate for the next quarter.

Time and time again, Tesla's production dips down from the exit rate early in the next quarter and then bursts later in the quarter to make that back up. More optimistic assumptions, like splitting the difference between the exit rate and the EoO target rate to estimate the quarter average rate, have always been too optimistic.

So we'll see Q1 production around 12K. Similarly, Tesla should exit Q1 around 2k/wk and then produce about 24K M3 in Q2.

 

[Waiting4M3]

Q1 is going to be another good reminder than the best predictor for quarterly production is taking the claimed exit rate for the previous quarter and assuming that will be the steady rate for the next quarter.

Time and time again, Tesla's production dips down from the exit rate early in the next quarter and then bursts later in the quarter to make that back up. More optimistic assumptions, like splitting the difference between the exit rate and the EoO target rate to estimate the quarter average rate, have always been too optimistic.

So we'll see Q1 production around 12K. Similarly, Tesla should exit Q1 around 2k/wk and then produce about 24K M3 in Q2.

One thing that could throw this method off: in Q1 we basically traversed the bottom 1/2 of the "S" curve. In Q2 we may be traversing the top 1/2 of the "S" curve. Another way to look at it is that we're in the rapid rise middle section now, so we may quickly go up from 2k/wk to 3k/wk in April, and then ramp slowly from there through the rest of the Q2 towards 4k/wk or higher. If we use 3k/wk avg we could get 36k in Q2.

 

[ggr]

TSLA closed at $263 in Europe, it seems to be recovering bit by bit from all these nonsense.

But that was a day or two ago, I think. Yahoo Finance tells me 27th, but I'm confused about time zones.

 

[sundaymorning]

But that was a day or two ago, I think. Yahoo Finance tells me 27th, but I'm confused about time zones.

Mine is showing as of 3/29th

TL0:Xetra Stock Quote - Tesla Inc

 

[elasalle]

Q1 is going to be another good reminder than the best predictor for quarterly production is taking the claimed exit rate for the previous quarter and assuming that will be the steady rate for the next quarter.

Time and time again, Tesla's production dips down from the exit rate early in the next quarter and then bursts later in the quarter to make that back up. More optimistic assumptions, like splitting the difference between the exit rate and the EoO target rate to estimate the quarter average rate, have always been too optimistic.

So we'll see Q1 production around 12K. Similarly, Tesla should exit Q1 around 2k/wk and then produce about 24K M3 in Q2.

Agree, but only until it goes exponential.

 

[AZRI11]

Undoubtedly those with anti-Tesla interests encourage the media and provide tips in this regard. Some reporters are in the same twitter clique with short sellers. Advertising is the lifeblood of the media. Tesla does not advertise. The other automakers and the oil industry advertise heavily. Yet stories about innovative Tesla and its visionary CEO are sure to draw many clicks (eyeballs that buy advertised products).

The oil tycoon Koch brothers pay the media to publish negative articles about alternative energy, particularly electric cars and Tesla. And much of the media is controlled by their friend Murdoch. All of this leads to the perfect setup for a continuous barrage of negatively slanted Tesla articles. This will be overcome by results that eventually defy the skeptics. Then when production finally catches up with demand, Tesla may become a big advertiser. That should quiet the naysayers in the media.

Starlink satellite tv/internet service good place for tesla to place there ads. Elon will spare us of annoying commercials. Ads will be quite different I think.

 

[Richard007]

I’ve been systematically emailing journalists and their editors who write crap about Tesla. Also commenting in comment sections so all those reading can read about support. (I’m between jobs so I have time).

The fundimentals and truth will win in the long run, but still Tesla is fighting a cultural change (off of oil) which is why I email journalists. Soon the tide will turn as more electric cars hit the market. In the meantime do not underestimate the power of established powers to try and stop or slow down change that affects their way of life. Take every opportunity to speak up at work and
socially about Tesla an electric cars, solar etc. Good news younger generation gets it.

I bought 90 more shares thus week and planning 90 more Monday.

So exciting!

 

[Esme Es Mejor]

Then when production finally catches up with demand, Tesla may become a big advertiser.

When Tesla becomes a big advertiser, I’m out...


Unless I decide to hang around for the dividends!