TSLA Market Action: 2018 Investor Roundtable

[Reciprocity]

I go back to my post yesterday. What would it take to be seen as a positive outlook given that the financials will be a disaster in terms of what shorts have been saying for years. I know that we all understand that is part of building a long term business, but it certainly helps bolster the alarmist shorts. So what positives could offset those negatives and push shorts to cover in large numbers? Ill take a shot at my top 10:

1) Current production at 3k/w, well on the way to a sustained 5k/w by June 30, at the latest, maybe earlier.
2) Deliveries to Canada to start in April. Demand for the first production LR is off the charts .
3) Tesla has agreed with the Government of China in principle to build a wholly owned factory in China and an immediate removal of import tariffs on BEVs to help China meet is goals of more EVs and cleaner environment.
4) Gigafactory running at 50gwh/y run rate and cranking up TE deliveries. Deliveries to double every month for the next year or so. Revenue expect to match TA by 2020.
5) 400KWh charging for S/X to come with a refreshed S/X and upgrade to 2170 battery pack by the end of the Year.
6) Reiteration of cash flow positive by the end of Q3 through the end of the year and break even Q2 in part due to massive output of TE products including Solar roof.
7) Announce some kind of partnership with a home builder for solar tile roofs and PW2s. up to 100,000 per year (this would be a business almost as large as TA is today if the homes are big enough)
8) Tesla Semi orders - 10,000 pre orders and more clarity on plans for production, maybe next to the Gigafactory1. Save a ton of shipping for battery packs.
9) China Model 3 reservations increasing to 1000's per week. China shipments to start in Q2 based on a good faith commitment from the Chinese government to rebate all tariffs paid once ground breaks on the China factory or equipment starts to get installed in an existing structure. If no deal is made with the US and Tariffs do not go away, Tesla will be extended Chinese incentives comparable to china manufactured vehicles for some time period.
10) Ten is hard to come up with but announcing a few very large TE projects all around the world including maybe Saudi Arabia, something on the order of $1B in orders would go a long way to show just how much demand there is.

Now all this is pure speculation, but if Elon wants to overshadow the bad financials related to doubling production capacity 2x over 12 months, then they have to be announcing something big and real. I am more inclined to think that these big announcements will be at the annual meeting. China wont be a known commodity as it relates to tariffs for a while. It seems to be heading in the right direction with BEV tariffs going way sooner then traditional cars and rules around partnerships being lessened sooner then later. I also think that Tesla is already on this path and timeline to 5k/w and their goal will be to hit that out of the park and raise money for Y, 10k/w and the Semi later in the year. I just do not see that the time for that is tonight's conference call.

If nothing interesting is announced then I expect a fairly big gap down after hours and a recovery to around 295 before the end of the week and I am personal trimming my short term calls and not buying anything. Premiums are way to high. I will buy any dip and dollar cost average calls that are more 3-4 month time range. That is when I expect Elon to put the final nail in the coffin of shorts. I do not see today being that day. But soon.

 

[Yggdrasill]

Gigafactory running at 50gwh/y run rate

GWh

400KWh charging for S/X

kW

You should know this.

 

[CuriousSunbird]

I go back to my post yesterday. What would it take to be seen as a positive outlook given that the financials will be a disaster in terms of what shorts have been saying for years. I know that we all understand that is part of building a long term business, but it certainly helps bolster the alarmist shorts. So what positives could offset those negatives and push shorts to cover in large numbers? Ill take a shot at my top 10:

1) Current production at 3k/w, well on the way to a sustained 5k/w by June 30, at the latest, maybe earlier.
2) Deliveries to Canada to start in April. Demand for the first production LR is off the charts .
3) Tesla has agreed with the Government of China in principle to build a wholly owned factory in China and an immediate removal of import tariffs on BEVs to help China meet is goals of more EVs and cleaner environment.
4) Gigafactory running at 50gwh/y run rate and cranking up TE deliveries. Deliveries to double every month for the next year or so. Revenue expect to match TA by 2020.
5) 400KWh charging for S/X to come with a refreshed S/X and upgrade to 2170 battery pack by the end of the Year.
6) Reiteration of cash flow positive by the end of Q3 through the end of the year and break even Q2 in part due to massive output of TE products including Solar roof.
7) Announce some kind of partnership with a home builder for solar tile roofs and PW2s. up to 100,000 per year (this would be a business almost as large as TA is today if the homes are big enough)
8) Tesla Semi orders - 10,000 pre orders and more clarity on plans for production, maybe next to the Gigafactory1. Save a ton of shipping for battery packs.
9) China Model 3 reservations increasing to 1000's per week. China shipments to start in Q2 based on a good faith commitment from the Chinese government to rebate all tariffs paid once ground breaks on the China factory or equipment starts to get installed in an existing structure. If no deal is made with the US and Tariffs do not go away, Tesla will be extended Chinese incentives comparable to china manufactured vehicles for some time period.
10) Ten is hard to come up with but announcing a few very large TE projects all around the world including maybe Saudi Arabia, something on the order of $1B in orders would go a long way to show just how much demand there is.

Now all this is pure speculation, but if Elon wants to overshadow the bad financials related to doubling production capacity 2x over 12 months, then they have to be announcing something big and real. I am more inclined to think that these big announcements will be at the annual meeting. China wont be a known commodity as it relates to tariffs for a while. It seems to be heading in the right direction with BEV tariffs going way sooner then traditional cars and rules around partnerships being lessened sooner then later. I also think that Tesla is already on this path and timeline to 5k/w and their goal will be to hit that out of the park and raise money for Y, 10k/w and the Semi later in the year. I just do not see that the time for that is tonight's conference call.

If nothing interesting is announced then I expect a fairly big gap down after hours and a recovery to around 295 before the end of the week and I am personal trimming my short term calls and not buying anything. Premiums are way to high. I will buy any dip and dollar cost average calls that are more 3-4 month time range. That is when I expect Elon to put the final nail in the coffin of shorts. I do not see today being that day. But soon.

I think the most bullish thing they could do is announce a leasing program for the M3. Medium-term, I don't see how you sell a mass-market car without a leasing program.

 

[Starno]

Regarding today's earnings, net loss should be very large as well as negative cash flow. Will be all about current M3 production, if production really is headed to 5k/week any time soon, and if Q3 really can be profitable with positive cash flow.

I think the most important thing that would make TSLA rise after EC is if they say they'll be (or are) at equal or over 2500/w constant rate by next week or so.

I expect a question will address it, and any other answer other than they'll achieve it in less than 2 weeks will put bad foundations, and I don't think anything else he can say will reverse the negative feelings that will arise.

From here, anything more is bonus (ramp to >3000-4k by june, 6000/w by end of Q2...).

 

[Tenable]

I go back to my post yesterday. What would it take to be seen as a positive outlook given that the financials will be a disaster in terms of what shorts have been saying for years. I know that we all understand that is part of building a long term business, but it certainly helps bolster the alarmist shorts. So what positives could offset those negatives and push shorts to cover in large numbers? Ill take a shot at my top 10:

1) Current production at 3k/w, well on the way to a sustained 5k/w by June 30, at the latest, maybe earlier.
2) Deliveries to Canada to start in April. Demand for the first production LR is off the charts .
3) Tesla has agreed with the Government of China in principle to build a wholly owned factory in China and an immediate removal of import tariffs on BEVs to help China meet is goals of more EVs and cleaner environment.
4) Gigafactory running at 50gwh/y run rate and cranking up TE deliveries. Deliveries to double every month for the next year or so. Revenue expect to match TA by 2020.
5) 400KWh charging for S/X to come with a refreshed S/X and upgrade to 2170 battery pack by the end of the Year.
6) Reiteration of cash flow positive by the end of Q3 through the end of the year and break even Q2 in part due to massive output of TE products including Solar roof.
7) Announce some kind of partnership with a home builder for solar tile roofs and PW2s. up to 100,000 per year (this would be a business almost as large as TA is today if the homes are big enough)
8) Tesla Semi orders - 10,000 pre orders and more clarity on plans for production, maybe next to the Gigafactory1. Save a ton of shipping for battery packs.
9) China Model 3 reservations increasing to 1000's per week. China shipments to start in Q2 based on a good faith commitment from the Chinese government to rebate all tariffs paid once ground breaks on the China factory or equipment starts to get installed in an existing structure. If no deal is made with the US and Tariffs do not go away, Tesla will be extended Chinese incentives comparable to china manufactured vehicles for some time period.
10) Ten is hard to come up with but announcing a few very large TE projects all around the world including maybe Saudi Arabia, something on the order of $1B in orders would go a long way to show just how much demand there is.

Now all this is pure speculation, but if Elon wants to overshadow the bad financials related to doubling production capacity 2x over 12 months, then they have to be announcing something big and real. I am more inclined to think that these big announcements will be at the annual meeting. China wont be a known commodity as it relates to tariffs for a while. It seems to be heading in the right direction with BEV tariffs going way sooner then traditional cars and rules around partnerships being lessened sooner then later. I also think that Tesla is already on this path and timeline to 5k/w and their goal will be to hit that out of the park and raise money for Y, 10k/w and the Semi later in the year. I just do not see that the time for that is tonight's conference call.

If nothing interesting is announced then I expect a fairly big gap down after hours and a recovery to around 295 before the end of the week and I am personal trimming my short term calls and not buying anything. Premiums are way to high. I will buy any dip and dollar cost average calls that are more 3-4 month time range. That is when I expect Elon to put the final nail in the coffin of shorts. I do not see today being that day. But soon.

If this list is a reflection of what we need I'm not feeling hopeful. I've liquidated almost all of my shorter term calls, most at a loss. I still have a couple Septembers (because I'm a fomo'n degen) and a couple March 19s. Everything else is J20. I think most of us here just want this ER to hurry up and pass.

If anyone has uplifting insights into this earnings I'd love to hear them. Otherwise, I'm just holding and hoping the storm thats coming doesn't ruin my week.

 

[phil0909]

I go back to my post yesterday. What would it take to be seen as a positive outlook given that the financials will be a disaster in terms of what shorts have been saying for years. I know that we all understand that is part of building a long term business, but it certainly helps bolster the alarmist shorts. So what positives could offset those negatives and push shorts to cover in large numbers? Ill take a shot at my top 10:

1) Current production at 3k/w, well on the way to a sustained 5k/w by June 30, at the latest, maybe earlier.
2) Deliveries to Canada to start in April. Demand for the first production LR is off the charts .
3) Tesla has agreed with the Government of China in principle to build a wholly owned factory in China and an immediate removal of import tariffs on BEVs to help China meet is goals of more EVs and cleaner environment.
4) Gigafactory running at 50gwh/y run rate and cranking up TE deliveries. Deliveries to double every month for the next year or so. Revenue expect to match TA by 2020.
5) 400KWh charging for S/X to come with a refreshed S/X and upgrade to 2170 battery pack by the end of the Year.
6) Reiteration of cash flow positive by the end of Q3 through the end of the year and break even Q2 in part due to massive output of TE products including Solar roof.
7) Announce some kind of partnership with a home builder for solar tile roofs and PW2s. up to 100,000 per year (this would be a business almost as large as TA is today if the homes are big enough)
8) Tesla Semi orders - 10,000 pre orders and more clarity on plans for production, maybe next to the Gigafactory1. Save a ton of shipping for battery packs.
9) China Model 3 reservations increasing to 1000's per week. China shipments to start in Q2 based on a good faith commitment from the Chinese government to rebate all tariffs paid once ground breaks on the China factory or equipment starts to get installed in an existing structure. If no deal is made with the US and Tariffs do not go away, Tesla will be extended Chinese incentives comparable to china manufactured vehicles for some time period.
10) Ten is hard to come up with but announcing a few very large TE projects all around the world including maybe Saudi Arabia, something on the order of $1B in orders would go a long way to show just how much demand there is.

Now all this is pure speculation, but if Elon wants to overshadow the bad financials related to doubling production capacity 2x over 12 months, then they have to be announcing something big and real. I am more inclined to think that these big announcements will be at the annual meeting. China wont be a known commodity as it relates to tariffs for a while. It seems to be heading in the right direction with BEV tariffs going way sooner then traditional cars and rules around partnerships being lessened sooner then later. I also think that Tesla is already on this path and timeline to 5k/w and their goal will be to hit that out of the park and raise money for Y, 10k/w and the Semi later in the year. I just do not see that the time for that is tonight's conference call.

If nothing interesting is announced then I expect a fairly big gap down after hours and a recovery to around 295 before the end of the week and I am personal trimming my short term calls and not buying anything. Premiums are way to high. I will buy any dip and dollar cost average calls that are more 3-4 month time range. That is when I expect Elon to put the final nail in the coffin of shorts. I do not see today being that day. But soon.

All 10 listed items are about revenue growth, and none are about profit. Nobody doubts Tesla's ability to grow revenue. What would be more helpful now is to demonstrate convincingly that net profits are coming.

 

[Jonathan Hewitt]

If this list is a reflection of what we need I'm not feeling hopeful. I've liquidated almost all of my shorter term calls, most at a loss. I still have a couple Septembers (because I'm a fomo'n degen) and a couple March 19s. Everything else is J20. I think most of us here just want this ER to hurry up and pass.

If anyone has uplifting insights into this earnings I'd love to hear them. Otherwise, I'm just holding and hoping the storm thats coming doesn't ruin my week.

Agreed, if people are depending on a positive surprise out of the ER to pump up the share price then longs are probably screwed.

I would like to think the share price is at a "low" due to uncertainty and once the ER is over we will be past some of the uncertainty. We aren't at record short interest because shorts think it's going to be an awesome ER for longs.

 

[MattEnth]

Elon wants to overshadow the bad financials related to doubling production capacity 2x over 12 months, then they have to be announcing something big and real.

Why? Elon said they won't need to raise money, so why should the stock price matter?

Instead of making long-term deals, don't you think the best thing for Tesla would be to just focus on executing?

The short nightmare is if Tesla can get to Model 3 production to 10k/week without a capital raise.

 

[MikeC]

If this list is a reflection of what we need I'm not feeling hopeful. I've liquidated almost all of my shorter term calls, most at a loss. I still have a couple Septembers (because I'm a fomo'n degen) and a couple March 19s. Everything else is J20. I think most of us here just want this ER to hurry up and pass.

If anyone has uplifting insights into this earnings I'd love to hear them. Otherwise, I'm just holding and hoping the storm thats coming doesn't ruin my week.

I’m pretty bullish today. Expecting a relief rally, i.e., sell the rumor, buy the news. A lot of people are waiting for the ER to “hurry up and pass” before they get back in.

 

[Tenable]

I’m pretty bullish today. Expecting a relief rally, i.e., sell the rumor, buy the news. A lot of people are waiting for the ER to “hurry up and pass” before they get back in.

I'm hoping for the same. But as the saying goes with TSLA ER's, burn me once shame on you, burn me a dozen times, shame on me.

 

[Richgoogol]

I'm hoping for the same. But as the saying goes with TSLA ER's, burn me once shame on you, burn me a dozen times, shame on me.

I don't know about you, but based on the score I've been keeping of myself, I'm totally SHAMELESS...borderline sociopath if you want to go extreme

 

[CuriousSunbird]

Nikola is now reporting only $6.3 billion of reservations, as compared to the $8.5 billion previously reported, while simultaneously claiming that Tesla has damaged them in an amount exceeding $2billion (Nikola Corporation v Tesla truck patent lawsuit | Patent | Vehicles, para 25 & 51). Does this mean that Tesla has taken over $2 billion + of Nikola's orders? If so, customer deposits would go up by about $200 million, helping the liquidity issues.

 

[Yggdrasill]

I'm hoping for the same. But as the saying goes with TSLA ER's, burn me once shame on you, burn me a dozen times, shame on me.

As far as I can recall, all the other ERs there's been hope. I haven't seen much of that anywhere the last few weeks.

So, I'm also betting on this being a relief rally.

 

[SteveG3]

I go back to my post yesterday. What would it take to be seen as a positive outlook given that the financials will be a disaster in terms of what shorts have been saying for years. I know that we all understand that is part of building a long term business, but it certainly helps bolster the alarmist shorts. So what positives could offset those negatives and push shorts to cover in large numbers? Ill take a shot at my top 10:

1) Current production at 3k/w, well on the way to a sustained 5k/w by June 30, at the latest, maybe earlier.
2) Deliveries to Canada to start in April. Demand for the first production LR is off the charts .
3) Tesla has agreed with the Government of China in principle to build a wholly owned factory in China and an immediate removal of import tariffs on BEVs to help China meet is goals of more EVs and cleaner environment.
4) Gigafactory running at 50gwh/y run rate and cranking up TE deliveries. Deliveries to double every month for the next year or so. Revenue expect to match TA by 2020.
5) 400KWh charging for S/X to come with a refreshed S/X and upgrade to 2170 battery pack by the end of the Year.
6) Reiteration of cash flow positive by the end of Q3 through the end of the year and break even Q2 in part due to massive output of TE products including Solar roof.
7) Announce some kind of partnership with a home builder for solar tile roofs and PW2s. up to 100,000 per year (this would be a business almost as large as TA is today if the homes are big enough)
8) Tesla Semi orders - 10,000 pre orders and more clarity on plans for production, maybe next to the Gigafactory1. Save a ton of shipping for battery packs.
9) China Model 3 reservations increasing to 1000's per week. China shipments to start in Q2 based on a good faith commitment from the Chinese government to rebate all tariffs paid once ground breaks on the China factory or equipment starts to get installed in an existing structure. If no deal is made with the US and Tariffs do not go away, Tesla will be extended Chinese incentives comparable to china manufactured vehicles for some time period.
10) Ten is hard to come up with but announcing a few very large TE projects all around the world including maybe Saudi Arabia, something on the order of $1B in orders would go a long way to show just how much demand there is.

Now all this is pure speculation, but if Elon wants to overshadow the bad financials related to doubling production capacity 2x over 12 months, then they have to be announcing something big and real. I am more inclined to think that these big announcements will be at the annual meeting. China wont be a known commodity as it relates to tariffs for a while. It seems to be heading in the right direction with BEV tariffs going way sooner then traditional cars and rules around partnerships being lessened sooner then later. I also think that Tesla is already on this path and timeline to 5k/w and their goal will be to hit that out of the park and raise money for Y, 10k/w and the Semi later in the year. I just do not see that the time for that is tonight's conference call.

If nothing interesting is announced then I expect a fairly big gap down after hours and a recovery to around 295 before the end of the week and I am personal trimming my short term calls and not buying anything. Premiums are way to high. I will buy any dip and dollar cost average calls that are more 3-4 month time range. That is when I expect Elon to put the final nail in the coffin of shorts. I do not see today being that day. But soon.

I think there’s a good chance the investor letter and/or conference call include rebuttals to some of the false narratives firehosed at Tesla and its products of late. Reasonable chance there are very vigorous rebuttals. If so, these would be very likely to be reflected off the media’s fun house mirror as ‘thin skinned,’ ‘defensive,’ ‘ranting,’ ‘unprofessional,’ ‘a distraction,’ ‘shooting the messenger,’ or even ‘desparate,’ without presenting in reasonable context Elon/Tesla’s response. That said, Elon/Tesla’s response might be on target enough to clear the air some even with those fun house mirror treatments being used.

 

[MikeC]

I'm hoping for the same. But as the saying goes with TSLA ER's, burn me once shame on you, burn me a dozen times, shame on me.

I get it. But the price hasn’t been this low and sentiment hasn’t been this bad and we’ve never been this close to sustained profitability before. It always seems to me like it’s when I finally throw in the towel, that’s the one that hits.

Edit: I should also add short interest has also never been this high before.

 

[Jonathan Hewitt]

I'm hoping for the same. But as the saying goes with TSLA ER's, burn me once shame on you, burn me a dozen times, shame on me.

It seems too obvious to short $TSLA. Horrible, horrible quarter coming up, media is letting EVERYONE know Tesla is going to go bankrupt, people's moms and grandmas are shorting Tesla because it's such easy money...

The market as a whole is supposed to be efficient; the obvious move is usually not the right one and there's a lot of money out there willing to take advantage of pricing inefficiencies. The only ways I can see Tesla going significantly down after the ER and not bouncing is

1. Big negative surprise "Just kidding guys, we reran the numbers and uh, yeah, we can't make money on the Model 3 even if we ramp to 5K/week. Sorry about that. Maybe next time we'll have a better Master Plan."
2. Somehow there are a lot of people thinking like @Reciprocity in that they expect some sort of positive surprise but then they sell after the ER because they were disappointed that it's just as bad as everyone thought it would be. If we weren't finding out in a couple hours anyway, this would probably be a good poll question. "Do you expect a positive surprise" and "if you don't get one, will you sell?"
3. Shorts who are afraid to short pre-ER hop on the train after the fact, but I don't know how much effect this really can have based on how many shares are already shorted. If there were less shares shorted I would be afraid of this happening but shorts currently appear to have no fear. Victory is so close they can taste it.
4. Somehow a large number of "contrarian" traders (larger than the number of short term shorts shorting) bought in pre-ER as a contrarian move but then dump it right after ER because they don't get the move they want, proving that the contrarian-contrarian move was the correct move.
5. Randomness. We humans cannot predict things with so many moving parts; we could just get a large drop "because." Yay, statistics.

I see these all as weak reasons but I rode TSLA from $380 down to $250 and back so I'm just a bagholder rationalizing holding on for the next move down to $250, so pay no attention.

 

[CorneliusXX]

As far as I can recall, all the other ERs there's been hope. I haven't seen much of that anywhere the last few weeks.

So, I'm also betting on this being a relief rally.

I can't remember the last big announcement made in a quarterly ER. I think the best we can hope for is a reaffirmation of volumes. Hopefully that will be seen as a relief.

 

[Bobbyducati]

wrote 8x $257.5 puts for about 1k$ premium. not expecting much of a risk on this, but plenty of buffer just in case.

 

[Tenable]

It seems too obvious to short $TSLA. Horrible, horrible quarter coming up, media is letting EVERYONE know Tesla is going to go bankrupt, people's moms and grandmas are shorting Tesla because it's such easy money...

The market as a whole is supposed to be efficient; the obvious move is usually not the right one and there's a lot of money out there willing to take advantage of pricing inefficiencies. The only ways I can see Tesla going significantly down after the ER and not bouncing is

1. Big negative surprise "Just kidding guys, we reran the numbers and uh, yeah, we can't make money on the Model 3 even if we ramp to 5K/week. Sorry about that. Maybe next time we'll have a better Master Plan."
2. Somehow there are a lot of people thinking like @Reciprocity in that they expect some sort of positive surprise but then they sell after the ER because they were disappointed that it's just as bad as everyone thought it would be. If we weren't finding out in a couple hours anyway, this would probably be a good poll question. "Do you expect a positive surprise" and "if you don't get one, will you sell?"
3. Shorts who are afraid to short pre-ER hop on the train after the fact, but I don't know how much effect this really can have based on how many shares are already shorted. If there were less shares shorted I would be afraid of this happening but shorts currently appear to have no fear. Victory is so close they can taste it.
4. Somehow a large number of "contrarian" traders (larger than the number of short term shorts shorting) bought in pre-ER as a contrarian move but then dump it right after ER because they don't get the move they want, proving that the contrarian-contrarian move was the correct move.
5. Randomness. We humans cannot predict things with so many moving parts; we could just get a large drop "because." Yay, statistics.

I see these all as weak reasons but I rode TSLA from $380 down to $250 and back so I'm just a bagholder rationalizing holding on for the next move down to $250, so pay no attention.

I took the long ride down as well sadly. You're thoughts echo mine. Fingers crossed the outcome randomly falls in our favor for once. I'd be lying if I said I wasn't anxious. I have basically no downside protection going into this ER, prices are too high and the share price (regardless of bad news) just feels too low.

Again, having taken the ride down, I too am likely rationalizing.

 

[SteveG3]

as with most Tesla calls, I think we could be down $20, up $20, and quite possibly both.

main thing I’m looking for is increasing confidence that 5K/week is being reeled in. End of June or a little later doesn’t matter to me. I don’t see Tesla’s hand being forced on a cap raise unless there’s an additional 6 month or so delay. fwiw, I see such a delay as possible but not probable, perhaps 10-15%. Biggest delays with Roadster, S, and X were at stages of ramp far earlier than what we’ve already crossed with TM3 (40-50% into the ramp).