One thing I came away with from the CC was at the end when the conversation turned to FSD and Elon was saying there would still be accidents with it. Would the press and people make it such that they would prevent cars using FSD? or something like that. Meaning unwilling to accept that FSD will never be perfect and people will still die. He seemed down at that point realizing that all the technology out there being developed might get sidelined. Did others pick up on this too?
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Causalien
Prime 8 ball Oracle
The elephant in the room that nobody is staring at. TE.
Went from about 200mil to 400 mil. Major install was a 129MW battery in Australia.
1000GW battery plant to be announced by end of 2018. That extrapolates to about 2Bil in additional revenue for 2019.
It is very interesting as it is an ok to good Q1 with a very bad CC (from wallstreet perspective). I am glad that Elon didn't do the smack down on Goldman Sachs as they are TSLA's main financier. He was also pretty nice to most of the good analysts I recognize as good.
So stay tuned and see what 8 ball says with regards to the effect of these two contrasting outcomes on the stock price.
Went from about 200mil to 400 mil. Major install was a 129MW battery in Australia.
1000GW battery plant to be announced by end of 2018. That extrapolates to about 2Bil in additional revenue for 2019.
It is very interesting as it is an ok to good Q1 with a very bad CC (from wallstreet perspective). I am glad that Elon didn't do the smack down on Goldman Sachs as they are TSLA's main financier. He was also pretty nice to most of the good analysts I recognize as good.
So stay tuned and see what 8 ball says with regards to the effect of these two contrasting outcomes on the stock price.
RobStark
Well-Known Member
It will just be a delay. There will be at least one country that approves fully autonomous vehicles when ready. Then there will be proof they are safer than human drivers. Then,slowly, other countries will legalize their use.
Causalien
Prime 8 ball Oracle
My guess is Japan will be first to approve. They've always been recklessly adventurous when implementing new tech.
Good for you! I’m buying more shares and LEAPS first thing in morning and agree it’s free money in the long run. 287.5 is a steal.
Yes, I picked up on that as well. When media headlines anytime an auto outs system has an accident or death it headline news. I can see both sides though. The one side is that if someone is to die in an auto accident, I suspect they would rather die by knowing they were in control of the vehicle. The other side is that most will not like knowing that autonomous technology was in control during someone’s death. That being said, it’s hard to argue with stats that prove 90% decline in deaths. I can see this being a very pationate debate and elected officials having being tugged from both sides. Like I said, end of day will be hard to argue 90% less deaths from auto industry.
I'd like to note that the back and forth conversation recently between the longs and the shorts has been wonderful to read. Both sides giving simple statements, rebuttals and justification for their positions with logic, numbers, and above all, civil discourse. Thank all of you who participated, it was a joy to behold.
Alright bulls. I have some questions for you after that call and how you interpret specific events.
Setting aside Musk's tone and candor, what I did find very interesting was the questions he chose to ignore. In many ways, the questions he ignored are the most terrifying questions for a short. They challenge the assumptions that the bear argument hinges on.
Those questions were:
For the shorts, this question is terrifying. Elon had the opportunity to give a big projection ("Yes, we're still aiming for 10k/week by the end of 2018"). If Tesla can get a sizable increase in Model 3 production with its 3B in CapEx, why not tell us that?
Instead, Elon answered "boring bonehead questions are not cool." To an analyst who said he's "bullish on Tesla long-term."
What do you make of this? This is an unusual spot for Tesla. We've typically had projections that are at least 3-6 months out. This time, we're left in the complete darkness, with no idea what the Model 3 target is for September.
The 400k+ reservations and customer deposits on the balance sheet are both some of the scariest data points when looking at shorting Tesla. Hundreds of thousands of people literally put $1000 to preorder a car that's at least a year away. That's remarkable.
If Tesla was in a healthy position, shouldn't Musk want to answer this question? Shouldn't he want to say "Yeah, a huge majority convert to owners" or something like that?
But he didn't answer it. He avoided the question completely and went to YouTube instead.
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If Musk hates the shorts as much as y'all think he does, why hasn't he screwed us over yet and just answered these questions?
Setting aside Musk's tone and candor, what I did find very interesting was the questions he chose to ignore. In many ways, the questions he ignored are the most terrifying questions for a short. They challenge the assumptions that the bear argument hinges on.
Those questions were:
- Targets/guidance for Model 3 production past July? (Tony Sacconaghi at 34:58)
For the shorts, this question is terrifying. Elon had the opportunity to give a big projection ("Yes, we're still aiming for 10k/week by the end of 2018"). If Tesla can get a sizable increase in Model 3 production with its 3B in CapEx, why not tell us that?
Instead, Elon answered "boring bonehead questions are not cool." To an analyst who said he's "bullish on Tesla long-term."
What do you make of this? This is an unusual spot for Tesla. We've typically had projections that are at least 3-6 months out. This time, we're left in the complete darkness, with no idea what the Model 3 target is for September.
- Of the Model 3 reservations opened and made available to configure, can you give us some idea of what percentage took a step to configure? (Joseph Spak at 36:30)
The 400k+ reservations and customer deposits on the balance sheet are both some of the scariest data points when looking at shorting Tesla. Hundreds of thousands of people literally put $1000 to preorder a car that's at least a year away. That's remarkable.
If Tesla was in a healthy position, shouldn't Musk want to answer this question? Shouldn't he want to say "Yeah, a huge majority convert to owners" or something like that?
But he didn't answer it. He avoided the question completely and went to YouTube instead.
-------------
If Musk hates the shorts as much as y'all think he does, why hasn't he screwed us over yet and just answered these questions?
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Zhelko Dimic
Careful bull
Do we collectively prefer to not give over 'control' from our bodies natural response to cancer to a cancer med with a 90% chance of saving lives but a 10% of leading to death via side effects?
fwiw, there are about 40,000 deaths per year in the US each from breast cancer and from automobile accidents. Imagine if there was a breast cancer drug finishing clinical trials, and it looked as though in another two years time the drug would be able net a 90% reduction in deaths where it was prescribed, but, with the data was indicating that some of the deaths would be people who died from side effects of the drug who otherwise would not have died of cancer. What if the media wrote sensationalized articles focusing attention on the side effect deaths and influencing use of the drug in testing and views of the public and regulators?
Waiting4M3
Active Member
M3 ramp is only important because it gives them profit. Elon is not bothering to keep talking because he's just going to let the walking do the talking, since the media and analysts will just ignore/spin whatever he says anyway. Have you played poker, when your opponent talks they might be bluffing, but if they stop talking and just go all-in, what do you think is happening?
The analysts who asked those questions are not going to ignore the answers. Both of them have large positions in Tesla that they could possibly sell.
Also, this ignores that Elon's compensation is tied to the stock price. He's heavily incentivized to **** over the shorts. With both of these questions, he could have done that.
The Blue Owl
Endangerous Herbivore
If your poker opponent has such a big tell, he's probably not very good. That said, I interpreted his irritation the same way; I think he feels confident the end of the tunnel is nigh and he's tired of hearing irrelevant questions, which he knows if he tries to answer would be spun tomorrow into "Tesla dials back their projection for 2018. Again." and "Only 1 in 2 reservation holders is converting. Is Tesla in danger?".
Also, I suspect he waited for an opportunity to show his longest finger to Wall Street for a long time. I kinda felt something was cooking when he answered the YouTuber's request on Twitter with a simple "Ok", so maybe his reaction wasn't as spontaneous as it looked.
ValueAnalyst
Closed
What if future organic profits were more than Tesla can wisely spend - i.e. limiting factor is implementation, and not capital?
CyberDutchie
Active Member
The analysts were not happy with Elon saying these are boring questions.
Adam Jonas quick to post his opinion:
The first half of the Q&A was dominated by analyst questions about manufacturing, automation, cost, efficiency, and capital... a few other questions covered recent management departures and reservation momentum. We asked about the scope of collaboration between Tesla and SpaceX on data, to which Mr. Musk said “there are many areas for us to collaborate... haven’t really thought about it.” A surprising answer from someone who launched a Tesla Roadster into outer space on a SpaceX rocket.
The call made an odd turn ~37 minutes in when Elon criticized an analyst for asking a 'boring' question about capital requirements and then interrupted the following question (about Model 3 order configuration), saying "We're going to go to YouTube. Sorry. These questions are so dry. They're killing me." He proceeded to take a 23 minute series of questions from a blogger. While the consequences are unquantifiable, we believe Tesla’s CEO made a mistake in refusing to answer some of the analyst questions about the Model 3 ramp.
Additionally, we found the posture out of character with the normally inviting, enlightening tone of prior conference calls over many years. While they may be 'dry' in nature, we argue such questions are extremely important for a highly levered and cash hungry company with 2025 bonds trading at 89. As we have highlighted in our previous research, even the short-term cadence of Model 3 production can significantly impact cash levels, liquidity, and financial credit worthiness. This is due to the interplay of fixed cost absorption and negative working capital. In our view, more than any other factor, the path of the Model 3 can determine whether the stock could test our $561 bull case or fall below our $175 bear case.
To be clear. Tonight’s conference call didn't go very well. Feedback we have received from investors during and following the call support this view. Irrespective of the Tesla CEO’s annoyance with the genre of questions he was receiving from the analyst community, we note that an important part of Tesla’s success has been its relationship with the capital markets in funding its ambitious plans. The analysts on the call represent the providers of capital that Tesla has throughout its history depended upon.
Adam Jonas quick to post his opinion:
The first half of the Q&A was dominated by analyst questions about manufacturing, automation, cost, efficiency, and capital... a few other questions covered recent management departures and reservation momentum. We asked about the scope of collaboration between Tesla and SpaceX on data, to which Mr. Musk said “there are many areas for us to collaborate... haven’t really thought about it.” A surprising answer from someone who launched a Tesla Roadster into outer space on a SpaceX rocket.
The call made an odd turn ~37 minutes in when Elon criticized an analyst for asking a 'boring' question about capital requirements and then interrupted the following question (about Model 3 order configuration), saying "We're going to go to YouTube. Sorry. These questions are so dry. They're killing me." He proceeded to take a 23 minute series of questions from a blogger. While the consequences are unquantifiable, we believe Tesla’s CEO made a mistake in refusing to answer some of the analyst questions about the Model 3 ramp.
Additionally, we found the posture out of character with the normally inviting, enlightening tone of prior conference calls over many years. While they may be 'dry' in nature, we argue such questions are extremely important for a highly levered and cash hungry company with 2025 bonds trading at 89. As we have highlighted in our previous research, even the short-term cadence of Model 3 production can significantly impact cash levels, liquidity, and financial credit worthiness. This is due to the interplay of fixed cost absorption and negative working capital. In our view, more than any other factor, the path of the Model 3 can determine whether the stock could test our $561 bull case or fall below our $175 bear case.
To be clear. Tonight’s conference call didn't go very well. Feedback we have received from investors during and following the call support this view. Irrespective of the Tesla CEO’s annoyance with the genre of questions he was receiving from the analyst community, we note that an important part of Tesla’s success has been its relationship with the capital markets in funding its ambitious plans. The analysts on the call represent the providers of capital that Tesla has throughout its history depended upon.
JRP3
Hyperactive Member
Elon sent a clear message: Next time you come in, you come heavy or not at all.
The analysts on the call got what they deserved. Many of them are like the Trolls on this forum, who say the same thing over and over again, and twist Elon's words in order to generated FUD containing click bait articles. Like the STUPID question Elon shut down on conversion of pre-orders to the single configuration they are offering now, when TONS of people like myself are waiting for AWD, and they still have so many orders, that it is irrelevant at this point what the conversion rate it currently. The analyst asking that question is either a complete moron or a Bear with an agenda, and I'm glad Elon tosses him aside.
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