TSLA Market Action: 2018 Investor Roundtable

[MattEnth]

10-Q reveals Tesla's liquidity position even worse than expected... 882.5M in cash overseas (China, Europe, Norway). Drops down to 1783M in cash in the US, only 800M when you take out customer deposits.

Accounts payable is 1.8B.

Cracking down on contractors. Imposing harsh restrictions on suppliers. Insisting that every 1M+ expense be approved by the CEO. An ominous "reorganizing, restructure of the company" coming this month. Delaying their debt payments.

Tesla could be facing a liquidity crisis right now.

 

[ZsoZso]

<short tin-foil hat on>
What if Elon doesn't actually have any "secret info" to base his warnings to Shorts on ?
Maybe he is just trying to convince his followers to buy more stock to save Tesla from bankwuptcy !?
If he had actual news, he would tweet those, not these idle threats.
That's it ! I figured him out.
All those tweets are just smoke with no fire. Lots of sizzle but no steak.

Damn, this blatant stock manipulation should be investigated by the SEC!
<short tin-foil hat off>

Ouch, that hat hurts. No wonder those who wear it all the time can't think a single straight logical thought...

 

[jelloslug]

10-Q reveals Tesla's liquidity position even worse than expected... 882.5M in cash overseas (China, Europe, Norway). Drops down to 1783M in cash in the US, only 800M when you take out customer deposits.

Accounts payable is 1.8B.

Cracking down on contractors. Imposing harsh restrictions on suppliers. Insisting that every 1M+ expense be approved by the CEO. An ominous "reorganizing, restructure of the company" coming this month.

Tesla could be facing a liquidity crisis right now.

You left out the product that is produced and will be turned into cash in the near term.

 

[MattEnth]

You left out the product that is produced and will be turned into cash in the near term.

You mean the one that's now over a month behind schedule? The one that was targeting 2500/week from March 25 - 31 (and still hasn't hit that target)? The one that still has 2.35B CapEx planned for this year, despite a negative 2.2B working capital? The one that was promised to be sold for 35k, but the cheapest option is 48k+?

I don't think it's a solid investment strategy to hang your hopes on Elon's promise of 5k/week. It looks like they are running out of cash well before that target.

Just to understand the bulls here: what do you think happens to TSLA if they can't hit 5k/week?

 

[theschnell]

10-Q reveals Tesla's liquidity position even worse than expected... 882.5M in cash overseas (China, Europe, Norway). Drops down to 1783M in cash in the US, only 800M when you take out customer deposits.

Accounts payable is 1.8B.

Cracking down on contractors. Imposing harsh restrictions on suppliers. Insisting that every 1M+ expense be approved by the CEO. An ominous "reorganizing, restructure of the company" coming this month. Delaying their debt payments.

Tesla could be facing a liquidity crisis right now.

Because they couldn’t repatriate cash if they needed to....

 

[Yggdrasill]

You left out the product that is produced and will be turned into cash in the near term.

Some of it already has been turned into cash. 900 Model S/X delivered in Norway thus far this quarter. That's likely around 90 million dollars.

 

[Sudre]

I believe the reason TSLA is rising is because shorts are out of ammo and this is the natural slow rise TSLA would normally make when shorts can not suppress the price. Once the SP reaches high enough shorts will start getting a margin call unless someone starts loaning them shares that have already been shorted twice before.

 

[dc_h]

Let me go on record as saying a battery deal with VW strikes me as highly implausible.

Among other things, I don't see Tesla using its battery advantage to become a supplier to a competitor as opposed to building more battery-hungry Semis, storage products, cars, pickups etc.

I agree with a caveat, which would depend on financinig, would VW have to pay some initial costs to add capacity? Could Tesla make 20% margins on VW business? If VW offset initial capex and Tesla can control more of the market profitably, it’s a win win.
All said I rate this unlikely. Maybe 10% chance of happening. A Saudi TE deal of multi GW is more likely. A 200GW solar plant could probably use up to 100GW of batteries. If the king likes the business model he may want to take a stake in Tesla or fund something for Tesla. It’s also a good hedge for the kingdom.

 

[Esme Es Mejor]

10-Q reveals Tesla's liquidity position even worse than expected.

 

[Tenable]

I believe the reason TSLA is rising is because shorts are out of ammo and this is the natural slow rise TSLA would normally make when shorts can not suppress the price. Once the SP reaches high enough shorts will start getting a margin call unless someone starts loaning them shares that have already been shorted twice before.

Interest rates haven risen slightly today on IB to 3.72% from 3.35% but there are still plenty of shares available to short. Assuming all shorts are maxed out is likely wishful thinking at this point.

 

[RobStark]

I hope you are right but I just think building 2 factories right now will not be financially doable as things stand. Now if they get a Chinese partner as alluded to that is different. Any US plant will have to go down south near the suppliers one would think.

Two factories don't require all the money up front. They can start producing in partially built plants so they start generating profits before all the CapEx is spent.

By Q4 Tesla should have enough profits to fund the quarterly CapEx for an additional 2 GF plus completion of GF1.

 

[Zaxxon]

Tesla could be facing a liquidity crisis right now.

This is fun! Can I play?

Tesla could be producing 10,000 Model 3s/week right now.
Tesla could decide to stop selling the S/X right now.
Tesla could add gasoline pumps at Supercharger stations worldwide and sell a ton of gas right now!
Tesla could redesign the Model 3 to run on hydrogen fuel cells right now!!

They're not.

 

[yngwie_2012]

i sold more than half of my tsla calls for a good profit...lets see if ill have another chance to buy before the Short Elonami comes )

 

[CuriousSunbird]

Also a new source of cash - they have made a change to allow them to mortgage the Fremont factory under their existing ABL. They could already borrow against the equipment inside - this allows them to borrow against the land & buildings.

Although since the cap on the ABL didn't change this probably just reduces the probability that they will hit leverage covenants, rather than allowing them to borrow more.

 

[ZachF]

Two factories don't require all the money up front. They can start producing in partially built plants so they start generating profits before all the CapEx is spent.

By Q4 Tesla should have enough profits to fund the quarterly CapEx for an additional 2 GF plus completion of GF1.

Tesla, for both of the new factories, could focus on the car building part first and source cells from Reno GF until they get their own battery capacity up and running.

For the China factory perhaps they could get some assistance from Panasonic, Tencent, to cut down on some cap expenditures.

For the Y factory, finding an old shuttered east coast Assembly plant and later attaching the battery part would probably be the best option.

 

[RobStark]

T

For the Y factory, finding an old shuttered east coast Assembly plant and later attaching the battery part would probably be the best option.

Problem is no one is giving away giant factory buildings anymore.

 

[DragonWatch]

While my teeth are pretty straight, the bottom can stand some adjustment:-( So, this morning, as the last of our family to finally get what used to be referred to as braces, I was reading the local yokel news paper while in the waiting room. On the front page, at the bottom, the paper headline was touting that here in the state of Washington, you know the state named after our founding father; not sure why we never had a founding mother, but I digress yet again; anyway we are converting three of our largest state ferries to electric power. The first two as soon as the budget will allow, followed by a couple of charging stations. A little further into the article they stated that they would be hybrids until later on when they would become fully electric. The remaining diesel engine would be used to recharge the onboard electric system.
You are right, I will not be pulling that 9V battery trick on my tongue in the event I really do wind up with braces That's so yesterday, okay about 68 years of them

 

[j0hn]

looks like elon got some more stock today ?

Tesla - Statement of Changes of Beneficial Ownership

 

[yngwie_2012]

Im wondering if elon changed his medicine, since he is tweeting weird stuff lately

 

[brian45011]

looks like elon got some more stock today ?

Tesla - Statement of Changes of Beneficial Ownership

Curious move. Why not just exercise vested options with a ~$35/share strike price?