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TSLA Market Action: 2018 Investor Roundtable

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Just for fun, I looked at Friday's max-pain and found it, well, interesting:View attachment 299587

Wow!
On the other hand, maxpain more often shows weird numbers that later jump to more sane ones.

Btw, for us TSLA holders in Europe the US$ - Euro rate was finally nice to us last weeks.
( improving more than 3 cents after losing 20 cents over the past year :-( )
 
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With Elon buying stock it looks like Tesla has hit the production above 3K per week. They are able to do this with just two shifts (16 hours) in Fremont. With the introduction of third shift in Fremont they should be close to 5K.

I am less concerned about GIGA now since they were already above 3K and hitting peak production of 5K and this without automated line from Germany. So with that line being installed in May. All looks set for 5K in June.
 
On December 1, 2016 -- the date of Spiegel's earlier infamous "Tesla is a Zero" presentation A small hedge fund manager threw shade at Tesla's Elon Musk at a private conference and said the stock was going to zero -- the SP was $181.88 at the close.

So anyone dumb enough to follow his thesis at the "Spiegel bottom" and hold through today has already incurred a loss of 66.5%, plus interest, in about 18 months. I wonder if anyone in the financial press will report that statistic.

In any case, I like his odds of his "Tesla is a Zero" short thesis resulting in an greater loss over the next 18 months.

Don't know why Mark Spiegel is getting so much attention. His Stanphyl capital hedge fund seems small. Couodn't find any oublished financials. The ones I can find all uses % when talking about numbers so I can never figure out the net dollar amount. so he can be shorting imaginary sharrs for all we know.
 
Just for fun, I looked at Friday's max-pain and found it, well, interesting:View attachment 299587

A bit late but, with a volume below $1 million, could we agree that this probably means nothing and may be ignored? For comparison January 2019 maturity shows $270 million and even 06/15/2018 are above 20 million.

Don't know why Mark Spiegel is getting so much attention. His Stanphyl capital hedge fund seems small. Couodn't find any oublished financials.

That's pretty simple. He's one of the loudest and most stubborn bears around and posting a lot of stuff. If there is only a slight chance that any given news or rumor is potentially bad for Tesla, you'll find it on his Twitter stream after a few hours. He's been a usefull news aggregator, if you filter the bullsh.t out. A little like a semi-intelligent feedreader following and filtering a lot of other news streams.

I wouldn't be surprised if we learn one day, that he's the evil twin of Ross Gerber or ValueAnalyst. ;-)
 
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10-Q reveals Tesla's liquidity position even worse than expected... 882.5M in cash overseas (China, Europe, Norway). Drops down to 1783M in cash in the US, only 800M when you take out customer deposits.

Accounts payable is 1.8B.

Cracking down on contractors. Imposing harsh restrictions on suppliers. Insisting that every 1M+ expense be approved by the CEO. An ominous "reorganizing, restructure of the company" coming this month. Delaying their debt payments.

Tesla could be facing a liquidity crisis right now.

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Hi Matt,

Can you run us by your reasoning why foreign currency shouldn’t be treated as usable liquidity?

I’m sure you’re aware that neither Norway or the Eurozone have capital controls. And for China, it would be great if you could give us specifics on where Tesla has broken SAFE guidelines for its onshore sales and is hence unable to convert CNY back to foreign currency.

Further, what is your assumed timeline and trigger event for all trade creditors to reduce credit terms to zero and for customer deposits to all be recalled? What do you deduce from the improving terms offered by trade creditors, as well as the growing book of customer deposits?

Thanks
 
Don't know why Mark Spiegel is getting so much attention. His Stanphyl capital hedge fund seems small. Couodn't find any oublished financials. The ones I can find all uses % when talking about numbers so I can never figure out the net dollar amount. so he can be shorting imaginary sharrs for all we know.
Because he is short Tesla and anything Tesla does is big news. Some one breaks a jaw in a factory and is national news.
 
Poll: Will Elon's TSLA buy repeat soon?

The stock sure is deeply undervalued, and this move sends a decisive signal to the market.

This is also similar to the company buying back its own shares, which I believe would be a wise move at $300. The benefit to surviving shareholders is, although not exactly the same, highly similar and both beneficial.

Great move, Elon.
 
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I wonder if Elon will keep buying TSLA. The stock sure is deeply undervalued, and this move sends a decisive signal to the market.

This is also similar to the company buying back its own shares, which I believe would be a wise move at $300. The benefit to surviving shareholders is, although not exactly the same, highly similar and beneficial.

Great move, Elon.

It would be funny if him or some of his allies keep purchasing a small amount of the stock every day for several weeks in a row... I'd love to see the reaction from shorts...
 
Because he is short Tesla and anything Tesla does is big news. Some one breaks a jaw in a factory and is national news.
Sort of a double edge sword. Elon tweets to 21 million followers and gets press. Anyone tweets about Elon and gets press. The upside is free marketing the downside is the marketing is not controlled like broadcast marketing. It worked out for Trump. Probably 2/3’s of coverage was negative, but coverage was constant. Not the only reason he won, there were many, but it didn’t hurt.
I thinknelon and Tesla get tens of millions in free marketing. Great to see more Tesla fans getting vocal. The TSLAQ people have been on social media longer and not all are rabid foaming spittle shooters like Mark Speigal.
 
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Navin is right in that it's not a call option, but a structured derivative product with a lever of 6.5 and a fixed knock-out level. I'm not entirely sure, but i think most (or all?) of those derivative stuff is not available for US retail investors. Nice trade anyway.

It is a call Option with open end expiration and knock out, with leverage 6.5 as you said.. All calls and puts are also derivatives
 
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