TSLA Market Action: 2018 Investor Roundtable

[SteveG3]

Thanks this helps, I thought he was talking about profits, which I think will be easy jk. Get us to 5000 please!

wait, there's more,

"Looks like this can be fixed with a firmware update. Will be rolling that out in a few days. With further refinement, we can improve braking distance beyond initial specs. Tesla won’t stop until Model 3 has better braking than any remotely comparable car."

"Also, Consumer Reports has an early production car. Model 3 now has improved ride comfort, lower wind noise & many other small improvements. Will request that they test current production."

"ABS calibration algorithm"

"To be clear, all Model 3 cars, incl early production will have same great braking ability. Nature of any product, however, is that if you care about perfection, you make constant small refinements. Today’s Model S is far more refined than initial production."

Elon Musk (@elonmusk) on Twitter

Looking like quite a turnaround... may even persuade CR to accept their request and take a fresh look at ride quality and wind noise with a current production vehicle.

 

[Brian121]

Also there was a accident happened in Shanghai China. No accident date was given. But according to the description, the minivan hit the Tesla parked at the side of the road and pushed Tesla to the pole. Tesla power was out. But after 10 minutes or so the fire underneath Tesla started. There was no further report as to if the car was destroyed but the fault was 100% on the Minivan.

 

[⚡️ELECTROMAN⚡️]

Elon can take criticism, I’m betting he’s going to make the car better with a software update to please CR.

Nice call

 

[sundaymorning]

Also there was a accident happened in Shanghai China. No accident date was given. But according to the description, the minivan hit the Tesla parked at the side of the road and pushed Tesla to the pole. Tesla power was out. But after 10 minutes or so the fire underneath Tesla started. There was no further report as to if the car was destroyed but the fault was 100% on the Minivan.

Shorts: the parked Tesla was on AP. Also Tesla’s magnetic motor is so powerful it warped the minivan into the Tesla along with the metal pool. Tesla should change its name to magneto, the villain.

 

[sundaymorning]

Nice call

I hear sporadic stories about Elon through various channels of Tesla employees. He always pushes himself to improve everything he touches. If the criticism is fair he’ll listen, but if he thinks your BS, he’ll give it to you straight.

My take on CR is simple: first, they know Tesla/Elon will listen, second they also know Tesla attracts hits and it’s free marketing for them if they can Tesla to answer with an upgrade. Hence, they’ll nitpick until they find something wrong to talk about, Tesla answers with an upgrade, millions of people focus in on CR’s brand, rinse and repeat.

 

[MacRocket]

1. Well we’ll, isn’t this nice that the efforts of the ordinary folk from TMC who arefighting FUD with facts on twitter have been recognised and thanked by Elon Musk himself. WOW!!!

 

[MacRocket]

 

[ls7corvete]

Tweetstorm:
View attachment 302871
View attachment 302872

WRT complexity, he is referring to a request to add red brake calipers to the performance 3s.

WRT "larger locations", he's referring to adding air compressors to larger Supercharger stations for inflating tires.

(Please Tesla, that's not really a priority right now).

Many SC in my area are at Wawa, thus air is already available free of charge.

 

[rameshbende]

Tesla Bears argument will change from Tesla can not produce model 3s (March 2018) to Ok they can produce M3s but they can not make profit (July 2018) to Ok they can make profit but why value Tesla more than GM,FORD (December 2018) and when finally Tesla will post GAAP profit of 1.5 billion (6 billion Plus annual GAAP) in Q2 2019 with revenue of 12 billion with M3 fully ramped up to 10K/Week, they will so OK but competition is coming in 2021.

They will add to this following FUD stories
Tesla cars are unsafe, whenever Tesla crash is reported.
Tesla cars fit and finish and quality overall is not good
Tesla execs are leaving company

IMO Tesla will be 3X by this time next year. 6 billion annualized GAAP profit run rate with 30x valuation gives me 180 billion. Valuation is on higher side because Tesla will quadruple their 2019 revenue by 2025 in range of 175-200 billion.

1.5 billion GAAP profit in Q2 2019 is based on following assumptions
130K model 3 sales at ASP 50K with 6.5 billion revenue (ZEV credits added to this)
Model 3 gross margin of 25%
S/X gross margin 32% (should be logical because higher priced cars should be more profitable and also indicated by Elon in earnings call)
S/X sales of 30K Annual run rate of 120k and 3 billion quarterly revenue (Leasing and ZEV credits added to this)
Energy revenue of 1.5 billion (Tesla roof ramped up to 20K roof installations, Powerwall 2, traditional solar, big projects like 1GWH battery )
Energy margin of 20%
Services and other revenue of 1 billion with break even
Autopilot / Self driving activation revenue 300 million (90% margin. I expect Tesla Self driving tech will be available in beta by end of 2018. So those who did not purchase these features initially will buy)
Operational costs 1.5 billion (1 billion S&G and 500 million R&D)
2.5 billion cash flow from operations (profit 1.5 billion + depreciation 600 million + ESOPS 300 million + 100 million other)

 

[MikeC]

China to Cut Import Duty on Cars to 15% After Truce With Trump

 

[Tslynk67]

Tesla Bears argument will change from Tesla can not produce model 3s (March 2018) to Ok they can produce M3s but they can not make profit (July 2018) to Ok they can make profit but why value Tesla more than GM,FORD (December 2018) and when finally Tesla will post GAAP profit of 1.5 billion (6 billion Plus annual GAAP) in Q2 2019 with revenue of 12 billion with M3 fully ramped up to 10K/Week, they will so OK but competition is coming in 2021.

They will add to this following FUD stories
Tesla cars are unsafe, whenever Tesla crash is reported.
Tesla cars fit and finish and quality overall is not good
Tesla execs are leaving company

IMO Tesla will be 3X by this time next year. 6 billion annualized GAAP profit run rate with 30x valuation gives me 180 billion. Valuation is on higher side because Tesla will quadruple their 2019 revenue by 2025 in range of 175-200 billion.

1.5 billion GAAP profit in Q2 2019 is based on following assumptions
130K model 3 sales at ASP 50K with 6.5 billion revenue (ZEV credits added to this)
Model 3 gross margin of 25%
S/X gross margin 32% (should be logical because higher priced cars should be more profitable and also indicated by Elon in earnings call)
S/X sales of 30K Annual run rate of 120k and 3 billion quarterly revenue (Leasing and ZEV credits added to this)
Energy revenue of 1.5 billion (Tesla roof ramped up to 20K roof installations, Powerwall 2, traditional solar, big projects like 1GWH battery )
Energy margin of 20%
Services and other revenue of 1 billion with break even
Autopilot / Self driving activation revenue 300 million (90% margin. I expect Tesla Self driving tech will be available in beta by end of 2018. So those who did not purchase these features initially will buy)
Operational costs 1.5 billion (1 billion S&G and 500 million R&D)
2.5 billion cash flow from operations (profit 1.5 billion + depreciation 600 million + ESOPS 300 million + 100 million other)

I mostly agree, but think your car margins are a little optimistic - I'd attribute 22% to M3 and 29% to S&X - that's based on what I've heard previously.

I do hope you're figures are more correct though

 

[Tslynk67]

CNBC

 

[Dan Detweiler]

CNBC View attachment 302908

I need it to stay down for just a few more hours while my funds clear through Robinhood. Going to significantly increase my shares this morning!

Dan

 

[avoigt]

wait, there's more,

"Looks like this can be fixed with a firmware update. Will be rolling that out in a few days. With further refinement, we can improve braking distance beyond initial specs. Tesla won’t stop until Model 3 has better braking than any remotely comparable car."

"Also, Consumer Reports has an early production car. Model 3 now has improved ride comfort, lower wind noise & many other small improvements. Will request that they test current production."

"ABS calibration algorithm"

"To be clear, all Model 3 cars, incl early production will have same great braking ability. Nature of any product, however, is that if you care about perfection, you make constant small refinements. Today’s Model S is far more refined than initial production."

Elon Musk (@elonmusk) on Twitter

Looking like quite a turnaround... may even persuade CR to accept their request and take a fresh look at ride quality and wind noise with a current production vehicle.

True!

The really impressive part though is that they can obviously improve the brake with an OTU. Lets think about this for a minute in terms of comparing what every other car manufacturer would have done and how long it in average would take to adjust the issue not to mention the costs associated.

The so called negative report from CR is turning now into a big positive given that the reaction time, costs and easiness to improve is unprecedented.

 

[Reciprocity]

The "record date" for the AGM was April 12. If they're recalling shares now they're going to be disappointed. (I assume "view" was autocorrected from "vote" above.

Isn't there a vote for the annual meeting in June?

 

[kelevra]

China says it will cut tariffs on some auto parts and vehicles

 

[Dan Detweiler]

True!

The really impressive part though is that they can obviously improve the brake with an OTU. Lets think about this for a minute in terms of comparing what every other car manufacturer would have done and how long it in average would take to adjust the issue not to mention the costs associated.

The so called negative report from CR is turning now into a big positive given that the reaction time, costs and easiness to improve is unprecedented.

While true, what are the odds that the media and short sellers will see it that way?

Yeah, little to none. Tesla will prevail in the long run though I'm sure.

Dan

 

[LordAstinus]

While true, what are the odds that the media and short sellers will see it that way?

Yeah, little to none. Tesla will prevail in the long run though I'm sure.

Dan

At least Reuters did:

Tesla's Musk admits Model 3 braking issue, promises fix

 

[bonaire]

Many SC in my area are at Wawa, thus air is already available free of charge.

Further, an owner can purchase a simple little 12V and do tires anywhere.
Campbell Hausfeld Portable Lightweight 100 PSI 12-Volt Inflator with LED Light Handle and Inflation Nozzles-AF010600 - The Home Depot

 

[Chickenlittle]

I hear sporadic stories about Elon through various channels of Tesla employees. He always pushes himself to improve everything he touches. If the criticism is fair he’ll listen, but if he thinks your BS, he’ll give it to you straight.

My take on CR is simple: first, they know Tesla/Elon will listen, second they also know Tesla attracts hits and it’s free marketing for them if they can Tesla to answer with an upgrade. Hence, they’ll nitpick until they find something wrong to talk about, Tesla answers with an upgrade, millions of people focus in on CR’s brand, rinse and repeat.

Look at timing of release. Wait for a positive announcement to reign it in. Timing very suspicious of motive