TSLA Market Action: 2018 Investor Roundtable

[liuping]

"Model 3 LR if you order now, you might wait 3-4 months for new US order"

Still wondering how this is possible with 450,000 reservations waiting...

Most of those reareservations are not for the LR version?

 

[RobStark]

Biggest news was that I think this is the first time Tesla have confirmed the Chinese factory, no?

No. They confirmed they are almost done with negotiations with various levels of Chinese government for the GF. Almost.

 

[RobStark]

Most of those reservation are not for the LR version?

Tesla has 3-4 months of US/Canada RWD LR PuP reservations.

The others maybe LR AWD, LR RWD with standard interior, SR AWD, or Performance version.

As well as SR base.

 

[Papafox]

"Model 3 LR if you order now, you might wait 3-4 months for new US order"

Still wondering how this is possible with 450,000 reservations waiting...

There's a huge number of AWD customers and a good number of small battery customers too. Then there are performance customers, plus customers who want white or cream-colored interior. There are customers who are delaying because they're still saving for the down-payment or maybe they have lots of money in TSLA stock and don't want to sell until it pops. Then there is the huge number of customers in other countries who cannot receive a Model 3 yet. That big group makes up the vast majority of the reservation holders. The number of buyers who live in the United States and Canada who want a black premium interior long range, RWD M3 is a real minority of the reservation holders.

 

[bambam4171]

"Model 3 LR if you order now, you might wait 3-4 months for new US order"

Still wondering how this is possible with 450,000 reservations waiting...

You do understand that most preorders did not come from US, right? There is a whole world outside of the US that did preorders.

 

[Tslynk67]

You do understand that most preorders did not come from US, right? There is a whole world outside of the US that did preorders.

Them dragons love their M3's...

 

[LordAstinus]

"Elon Musk is committed to the long-term vision of Tesla, Sam Korus, analyst at ARK Invest, said." - First minute about the importance of battery cost:

https://www.cnbc.com/video/2018/06/06/tesla-watchers-too-focused-on-the-short-term-analyst-says.html

 

[rameshbende]

"Model 3 LR if you order now, you might wait 3-4 months for new US order"

Still wondering how this is possible with 450,000 reservations waiting...

They will deliver about 190K M3s by year end. US/Canada reservations could be 250K of 450k. So probably 150K demand for LR/AWD/P version. Since SR will be available in Q1 2019 only and international deliveries start next year. So if somebody books LR in US now could get car between 4-6 months. You could get it in 4 months if you can take delivery in Fremont.

 

[ValueAnalyst]

Tesla could be basing some D&A and other overhead expense allocation between Automotive and Energy on segment revenue.

In other words, as total D&A remains relatively flat in the coming quarters, surging revenue from the Automotive segment could indirectly improve Energy segment's gross margin.

Let me illustrate this with a simple example:

Period 1

Segment A rev: $90
Segment B rev: $10

Total D&A: $20
D&A allocation to Segment A: $20 / $100 x $90 = $18
D&A allocation to Segment B: $20 / $100 x $10 = $2

Segment A gross profit margin assuming $50 direct costs: [$90 - ($50 + $18)] / $90 = 24%
Segment B gross profit margin assuming $8 direct costs: [$10 - ($8 + $2)] / $10 = 0%

Period 2 - Double Segment A revenue while keeping Segment B revenue and D&A flat

Segment A rev: $180
Segment B rev: $10

Total D&A: $20
D&A allocation to Segment A: $20 / $190 x $180 = $19
D&A allocation to Segment B: $20 / $190 x $10 = $1

Segment A gross profit margin assuming $100 (double $50 above) direct costs: [$190 - ($100 + $19)] / $190 = 37%
Segment B gross profit margin assuming $8 direct costs: [$10 - ($8 + $1)] / $10 = 10%

-------

This example illustrates how Segment B's apparent profitability can improve only because of the increase in Segment A revenue.

Retail investors and small-time institutional investors, who do not have intermediate accounting education and related professional experience, will not understand why this happened, as both groups only look at the red ink at the bottom-line, and reason up from there on everything related to Tesla - i.e. the "Tesla is structurally unprofitable" rhetoric, which could not be further from the truth.

Elon last night said energy storage profitability will soon get to 20% to 30%, surprising many, and I believe the above is a key reason.

This development is not yet priced in the stock, but soon it will be.

 

[Tslynk67]

Some above we talked about the voting buttons. I think the "like" button is redundant and should be replaced with "agree" to match the "disagree", the "love" button serves the function of "like". "Informative" and "helpful" are also rather similar, maybe replace one with "FUD"

 

[Tslynk67]

Elon last night said energy storage profitability will soon get to 20% to 30%, surprising many, and I believe the above is a key reason.

This development is not yet priced in the stock price, but it will be.

And exponential growth two, doubling every year from here-on, supply-constrained based on GF1 output capacity.

Seriously, shorts need to leave the building... An advice.

 

[LoveTSLA]

Today might be the last day to get TSLA under $300. Wondering what those shorts below that would do ?

 

[winfield100]

For @AudubonB and all others,
This reddit post does an excellent job of summarizing important points of the Annual Meeting:
https://www.reddit.com/r/teslamotor..._shareholder_meeting_official_thread/e06ag1d/

these 3 comments to me are most salient

• Tesla's energy sector will grow so much that each year the production will be more than all previous years combined. [Edit: That means production will double each year]
• Virtual grid in Puerto Rico could be possible instead of building new power plants.
• Tesla energy storage gross margin target is the same as automotive which is 20-30%. We might reach this by the end of this year or early next year.

 

[dc_h]

Tesla's energy sector will grow so much that each year the production will be more than all previous years combined. [Edit: That means production will double each year]

I think it has to double every eight months. Double per year would equal prior year, not all years. First 8 months would equal prior year and last four would equal all prior years.

 

[AlMc]

Today might be the last day to get TSLA under $300. Wondering what those shorts below that would do ?

.

I hope you are right but having been around here for a couple years I have lost count how many times I have seen people post this.

 

[ruralectric]

Judge orders EPA to disclose any science backing up Pruitt’s climate claims

I think I'm gonna have a good day.

Edit: Sorry, wrong thread.

 

[LoveTSLA]

.

I hope you are right but having been around here for a couple years I have lost count how many times I have seen people post this.

It is about confidence about Elon and long Tesla. I won’t do the stupid thing like I sold Nflx and AMZN too early when they were in the simular situation like Tsla now...

 

[MacRocket]

You do understand that most preorders did not come from US, right? There is a whole world outside of the US that did preorders.

Yes me included plus quite a few friends and relatives

 

[jeewee3000]

Today might be the last day to get TSLA under $300. Wondering what those shorts below that would do ?

Pre-market already up to $299+. Looking good.

EDIT: $300 breached.

 

[Dan Detweiler]

Wow, just broke $300 in pre market. I have to admit I am a bit surprised. Didn't think there would be this much movement before the end of the quarter. Let's hope it keeps rising.

Dan