TSLA Market Action: 2018 Investor Roundtable

[Bet TSLA]

Today was my best TSLA day ever , up over 22%, even though I screwed up by closing an options position at $312.80 and opening a new larger one at $321.50 !

A most excellent day for all longs.

 

[sundaymorning]

Ivestopedia:

Tesla: Shorts' Bets Are Going From Bad to Worse

 

[AudubonB]

Two items:

1. We are hosting a Norwegian family. Unfortunately for the father, he works for the country’s gargantuan Permanent Fund (so-called. And it’s now over $1 trillion). So far, I’ve been easy on him (and I know just which segment is his responsibility). But he’s going to be getting a perhaps not hugely subtle earful over the rest of their time here...........
Anyway, after a bit of banter I told them that they might claim to have Norwegian passports and this job or that job BUT...I had the acid test to determine if they really were Norwegian. Knowing they were being set up, they still couldn’t but take the bait. So I asked them “Do you own a Tesla?”
That went over just great, but after they finished laughing they claimed they go one better: they don’t own a car of any kind. Wow.

2. And today’s Moderator Pick for Post of the Day goes to....

Thumper!

Wheee, Investing is fun!

I got a big guffaw out of that.

 

[⚡️ELECTROMAN⚡️]

Serious question, how many times do you need to see him throw a childish tantrum swearing never to come back before you realize he has some major issues?

It sounded like he was joking. I think you're stuck with him unless the mods ban him for being overly optimistic. Hmm maybe it's Elon's secret TMC account?

 

[dc_h]

longer than you can stay solvent, as the old saying goes. But I am a long-term investor, I cap downside, limit exposure and rarely day-trade.[/QUOTE]
So,,,if Tesla does make over 5000 3’s a week in July and increases through end of year, and margins go as Elon and team plan, what then is your short thesis.

 

[Yggdrasill]

1. We are hosting a Norwegian family. Unfortunately for the father, he works for the country’s gargantuan Permanent Fund (so-called. And it’s now over $1 trillion).

It's called the oil fund in shorthand. More properly it's called the Government Pension Fund Global. Home

 

[Tslynk67]

Exactly why I’ve been vegan for 6 months now. Not nearly as hard as everyone says it is and I’m in better shape than I’ve ever been! Now just need to get my Model 3 in order to reduce my impact as much as possible.

Going vegan can indeed give some short term benefits as it often means going from a processed "food" diet to better choices, as well as other beneficial changes in lifestyle, such as better sleep and more exercise.

However, longer term, vegan does not provide all the nutrition humans need - you'll get by for several years, but eventually become very sick unless you supplement. If you can bring yourselves to eat some fish a couple of times a week then that's a great choice, otherwise get the right pills to cover the gap: https://chriskresser.com/why-you-should-think-twice-about-vegetarian-and-vegan-diets/

Watch The Magic Pill, it's on Netflix.

 

[lklundin]

Has anyone looked to see what Mark Spiegel is tweeting today?

When this is over, he will be very active on Twitter.

And with other things in life that are free...

 

[Tslynk67]

Hey guys, @ggr set up a special thread to talk about veganism, leather, etc.

Here you go: Veganism/Leather etc. out of Market Action

Oops, missed this, OK, I'll stop with the stuff here

 

[dandurston]

View attachment 307368

Place your bets...

I think it's worth mentioning that this short interest vs share price chart can be easily misinterpreted - the old "correlation is not causation" problem. Commonly this chart is used to imply that high levels of shorting will result in future increases in the share price, since these variables appear to move in opposition and historically we have seen big swings.

However, a number of a possibilities exist besides the idea eventual short covering will boost the price. For one, the price could rise for other reasons and then shorts could decide to cut their losses and cover. So covering remains correlated with share price appreciation, but isn't causing (or fully causing) the appreciation.

Alternatively, the share price might never appreciate but rather trend to zero as the shorts hope. Thus shares shorted continues to climb and the price declines, so the correlation holds very well but not in the direction that bulls are hoping for.

Certainly it is well established that short covering does exaggerate upwards movement in the share price, but it alone isn't going to cause a huge increase in the share price. After all, the bears are quite convinced they are right and they aren't going to panic and cover for no reason. Major changes in the share price - good or bad - will start based on news and results, and then shorts will continue to amplify these moves in both directions. So a more valid take away from this chart is that if bulls do get the good results they are hoping for, then the upward movement could be quite exaggerated by covering. If we get bad news, shorts will continue to sell into that and exaggerate the decline (like they did in early April). So in other words, the stock will be volatile.

 

[Waiting4M3]

When this is over, he will be very active on Twitter.

And with other things in life that are free...

Internet isn't free, not in the US

 

[Waiting4M3]

I think it's worth mentioning that this short interest vs share price chart can be easily misinterpreted - the old "correlation is not causation" problem. Commonly this chart is used to imply that high levels of shorting will result in future increases in the share price, since these variables appear to move in opposition and historically we have seen big swings.

However, a number of a possibilities exist besides the idea eventual short covering will boost the price. For one, the price could rise for other reasons and then shorts could decide to cut their losses and cover. So covering remains correlated with share price appreciation, but isn't causing (or fully causing) the appreciation.

Alternatively, the share price might never appreciate but rather trend to zero as the shorts hope. Thus shares shorted continues to climb and the price declines, so the correlation holds very well but not in the direction that bulls are hoping for.

Certainly it is well established that short covering does exaggerate upwards movement in the share price, but it alone isn't going to cause a huge increase in the share price. After all, the bears are quite convinced they are right and they aren't going to panic and cover for no reason. Major changes in the share price - good or bad - will start based on news and results, and then shorts will continue to amplify these moves in both directions.

I think the stock price vs shorts interest chart is entertaining, but it fails due to the same fallacy of many Tesla bears, and to some degree, the whole value investing crowd. To them, every company can be viewed through some financial ratio, P/E, P/S, debt/asset, etc. Put those ratio on a time trend chart and they think they know everything there is to know about a company and a stock. To really know how to read these charts, one has to understand the reason behind it. In Tesla's case, the most important difference between bulls and bears is that bears keep moving the goal post backward, while the bulls keep advancing, so when the short interest peaks, shorts will inevitably pay.

 

[avoigt]

Good Article on Reddit. Quite some bolt predictions but worth a read. Gives some nice insight to a surging share price beyond imagination even for bulls like TT007

https://www.reddit.com/r/teslamotors/comments/8o381s/who_killed_the__car_and_when_will_the/

 

[bambam4171]

I'm waiting for the next tweet from @Model3VINs
Think that might be the good news showing ramping is progressing further after the shutdown

 

[lklundin]

I think the combined demand for Modes 3 & Y will likely be about 1 million.

You and others likely take this for granted, but for some it may be necessary to state that this number is annual...

 

[dw4ngg]

Good Article on Reddit. Quite some bolt predictions but worth a read. Gives some nice insight to a surging share price beyond imagination even for bulls like TT007

https://www.reddit.com/r/teslamotors/comments/8o381s/who_killed_the__car_and_when_will_the/

I bet Elon is the blog starter

 

[dw4ngg]

“The violence of the short squeeze is assured, but how it's going to play out intra-day is difficult to predict.

Just a couple of numbers to give a feeling for how violent the short squeeze is going to be: the TSLA daily average volume is 8 million shares, of which less than 1 million is the net buy or sell interest, even on a clear up or down day. (The remaining 90% are HFT intra-day bots, which don't provide any real liquidity.)

The short interest in Tesla is 39 million shares currently. Once it's clear that most of those are wrong, it would take more than a month of average volume, with real sell interest liquidity present, to close a majority of those short positions.”

Definitely an even more optimistic TSLA perspective here (its best case SP is $30k, which almost quintuples the existing auto INDUSTRY market cap - a lot ambitious even after adjusting for increased margins), but it seems a short squeeze-of-a-lifetime is on the brink of occurring, esp given today’s SP movement. I don’t expect a fair fight from shorts to protect that capital and prevent this occurrence (there’s already a lot of “fake news” or focused news).. but, their nemesis’ financial gains (EM) are directly linked to said SP, and I’ve chosen to side with him + my belief in an impending ICE manufacturing collapse in the next decade or less.

#TSLA
#TheLessBigShort
#ButABigShortNonetheless
#Squeeze

 

[Tslynk67]

So was yesterday's action due to short covering, anyone a view on this?

Then I'm wondering who is going to be prepared to sell to shorts, which long would bail-out at this point? Or do shorts need to buy from new shorts into a never-ending spiral of oblivion and loss?? But then the number of shares to short will run out.

And I guess you could get to the point where nobody wants to sell any more, so the stock price freezes?

This is giving me a headache thinking about it

 

[Dan Detweiler]

Good Article on Reddit. Quite some bolt predictions but worth a read. Gives some nice insight to a surging share price beyond imagination even for bulls like TT007

https://www.reddit.com/r/teslamotors/comments/8o381s/who_killed_the__car_and_when_will_the/

While on the surface this analysis seems ridiculous, what people continuously forget to mention (even in this article) is that Tesla is not just an auto manufacturer like all the others. They are creating a whole new infrastructure. A personal power company with the ability to go from the sun, to solar, to storage, to house, to car. That is something that has never before been seen. They are preparing to change the way we look at the trucking industry as well. They are also prepared to offer a whole new market of power grid stabilization. They have all the products in place. The cars are just one piece of the puzzle. They are positioned to disrupt, not just the auto industry, but the trucking industry and energy industry as a whole.

$30k stock prices may very well prove to be highly optimistic but when looking at the bigger picture it suddenly becomes much more plausible.

Dan

 

[WarpedOne]

$30k stock prices may very well prove to be highly optimistic but when looking at the bigger picture it suddenly becomes much more plausible.

I am NOT selling at mere 30k a share. Just a FYI ...