TSLA Market Action: 2018 Investor Roundtable

[Irishjugg]

Yes, price/kwh

I have various maturities of puts incl. 1/19 (which is the shortest).

I think the demand issue will become obvious earlier than the profitability. But that requires a bit more detailed explanation than I can do today - maybe over the weekend.

I think that, historically, every person who had used demand issues as a basis for shorting have gotten absolutely demolished. There haven't been any demand issues in the past, and with a 2 year backlog there aren't any coming soon either.

Do be careful.

 

[Johann Koeber]

If it goes to 30k$ soon, I better put in a sell order for 35 of my shares, hoping to buy them back cheaper later.

This will somewhat mitigate the short squeeze.

Or I could undercut the rest of you: my sell limit for 35 shares is 29,950$ per share.

Now if everyone does that, and we undercut each other (or is it one another?) there will be no short squeeze.

So - I don't really believe in this stuff. Strong growth: yes; squeeze in the 10s of thousands of $ within weeks: no.

 

[jeewee3000]

If it goes to 30k$ soon, I better put in a sell order for 35 of my shares, hoping to buy them back cheaper later.

This will somewhat mitigate the short squeeze.

Or I could undercut the rest of you: my sell limit for 35 shares is 29,950$ per share.

Now if everyone does that, and we undercut each other (or is it one another?) there will be no short squeeze.

So - I don't really believe in this stuff. Strong growth: yes; squeeze in the 10s of thousands of $ within weeks: no.

I agree with you.

My online broker platform, for one, does not accept a sell limit order of a stock price that deviates "too much" from the current range. The maximum selling price I can enter is around 10x the current price, I believe.

 

[wnorris]

I gotta wonder what is still causing him to doubt 5,000/week production for so long at this point. He is even now predicting it will not happen for another 12 months??? He clearly thinks Elon is fibbing at this point. Didn't he get a factory tour just a few months ago? Hmmm. I realize he has been all over the map with his predictions, but I find this quite puzzling.

Agree, the timing of this smells of a very shady call by Jonas. I cannot help but think this may be designed to prevent a continuation of yesterday's climb. I hate to be a conspiracy theorist, but his calls lately are all over the map.

 

[YasB]

My problem with that is, with a short you can at most gain the amount you invested, while the risk (if you get in at the wrong time) are _all_ your holdings (based on my understanding that during the squeeze your broker will automatically start liquidating your other holdings, to make sure you can honor your obligation to buy back the shorted stock).

Not necessarily. Most retail-shorts seem to be using options, knock-outs or other stuff, that limits the downside. My current position will be worth 0 as soon as Teslas rises to something like $430, if i don't take any further action. That would be a pitty, but have no effect on the rest of my portfolio. The limited safety on the upside comes with a leverage of about 3 currently. It's not time limited and value doesn't decay over time except ~2% interest rate per year i have to pay, so i'm not really in a hurry.

Tesla suddenly spiking to $1000 for a few days could actually be a very good thing, if (and that's a big if) brokers are able and willing to handle transactions and i could open a new position. Afaik, a lot of the retail traders couldn't trade during the VW squeeze. I think that also was the case after the Brexit decision, at least here in germany. One thing that would make me a bit nervous would be a slow and steady climb approaching and surpassing the all-time-high.

 

[winfield100]

Good Article on Reddit. Quite some bolt predictions but worth a read. Gives some nice insight to a surging share price beyond imagination even for bulls like TT007

r/teslamotors - Who killed the car, and when will the share price reach $, ... Wait, what⁉

the article is quite intriguing
there is in the comments a "thingy" about AAPL. investors with long memories (i weep when i remember i sold my AAPL 30 yrs ago) remmber AAPL did a 2:1 and a 2:1 and a 2:1 and a 7:1 split (= 56:1 split, times yesterdays close of ~$190/share or $190x56 = $10,640/share !!) SO, im accumulating TSLA again, and did so last week, YEHAWW!

 

[winfield100]

Well, a lot of shorts got in or accumulated when the SP was in the 350's. So a lot of them are still in the green.
I think the SP need to go >360 to see a real amount of fear among the shorts.

Rapid increase to >350, and then a rapid increase to 380, and you could see some real panicking.

_NOT All of them

 

[MTL_HABS1909]

Going vegan can indeed give some short term benefits as it often means going from a processed "food" diet to better choices, as well as other beneficial changes in lifestyle, such as better sleep and more exercise.

However, longer term, vegan does not provide all the nutrition humans need - you'll get by for several years, but eventually become very sick unless you supplement. If you can bring yourselves to eat some fish a couple of times a week then that's a great choice, otherwise get the right pills to cover the gap: https://chriskresser.com/why-you-should-think-twice-about-vegetarian-and-vegan-diets/

Watch The Magic Pill, it's on Netflix.

I’m not going to ramble on about this in the market thread. But trust me, I do a Vega One shake every morning and I’m willing to bet I get more nutrients than 95% of “omnivores”....

 

[bobinfla]

Serious question, how many times do you need to see him throw a childish tantrum swearing never to come back before you realize he has some major issues?

In the immortal words of Frank the Budweiser Lizard, "Let it go, Louie!".

At this point, I would have to say that it is at least equally childish to engage in playground taunting and bullying every time TT007 dares to show up in your playground. Also childish to set oneself up as the great protector of the poor ignorant masses who are unable to think correctly for themselves without benefit of your special wisdom.

Can we get back to civil discourse and leave the personal attacks elsewhere.

 

[JRP3]

Also childish to set oneself up as the great protector of the poor ignorant masses who are unable to think correctly for themselves without benefit of your special wisdom.

I won't ignore over the top bullishness any more than over the top fear mongering from the shorts. Both degrade the quality of the forum. At least most people seem to be able to see through the nonsense from the short sector. I may be the most vocal critic but am far from the only one.

 

[JRP3]

Back on topic, I see we are down in Germany and premarket a bit.

 

[Yonki]

My online broker platform, for one, does not accept a sell limit order of a stock price that deviates "too much" from the current range. The maximum selling price I can enter is around 10x the current price, I believe.

I was very surprised to find that Fidelity caps the limit sale price at ~150% of the current price. Seems unnecessarily low.

 

[Chartered321]

So this is clearly a short covering made by those people who believed in Tesla's failure to reach profitabilty. It should be reaching ATH level until profitability is proven (3Q18A results). Then, to break the USD 400 level, we will need confirmation of that.
That would be the point in time when the already richand therefore risk averse allegedly very smart banker / analyst / fund manager will safely initiate positions in the clients portfolios so he can tell how smart and clever was Elon Musk at the christmas parties dinner and everybody will want to have Tesla shares...

 

[TheTalkingMule]

There simply have to be tons of large institutional investors waiting for this moment to buy in. Now that production hell has passed, shorts need to cover and the hesitant need to get in......both before we pass $400 for good. Should be fun.

 

[bambam4171]

Funny that, I would have bet it goes down 2-3% at least today but no it goes up? Shorts covering?

 

[TheTalkingMule]

Quickly up $3.....lol

 

[Mkorpal]

Back on topic, I see we are down in Germany and premarket a bit.

Already moving up.

 

[JRP3]

Already moving up.

Nicely

 

[TheTalkingMule]

Funny that, I would have bet it goes down 2-3% at least today but no it goes up? Shorts covering?

$9B+ worth of stock is borrowed as a short position, when the stock jumps this much they are forced to cover their borrowed shares to close the position. Tons of other folks are taking this as the last cheap chance to buy in. No existing long is looking to sell. That creates a problem.

 

[WarpedOne]

Back on topic, I see we are down in Germany and premarket a bit.

324,19 USD +4,69 (1,47 %)