TSLA Market Action: 2018 Investor Roundtable

[LoveTSLA]

Assume avg 80k each , 3500 RIF, so it is about $70 million a quarter. Is that simple a math?

 

[jhm]

Assume avg 80k each , 3500 RIF, so it is about $70 million a quarter. Is that simple a math?

Simple enough. But we are talking Silicon Valley payscale here plus fully loaded cost is about twice the salary. So we could be looking at 3 to 4 times the impact, $200M to $300M. Of course severance packages will come work against this for a couple of quarters.

Last year R&D and SG&A combined were $3855M. This would cover most of the salaried employees while hourly labor would could come under COGS. Last quarter R&D and SG&A $1053M. This could put some bound on impact of RIF.

Edit. Had to rework last paragraph when realized I had forst grabbed annual data rather than quarter data. I'm likely over stating the case in the first paragraph.

 

[HG Wells]

On a more serious note.

Option traders are predicting a large rise in Tesla stock.
Tesla Traders Bet Stock Will Rise 15% to Record

GEE most of my holdings are 330 LEAPS. Maybe I will make my goal before Labor Day.

 

[jeewee3000]

TSLA touched $350 premarket

 

[StapleGun]

Could be, that we are in for a bit of a downtrend. Maybe the change introducing new lines did not go as smooth as they hoped?

Model 3 Invites Spreadsheet Published Web Version

View attachment 309296

Delivery shaping to avoid hitting 200k. Nothing more. The delivery pipeline will be completely filled and ready to be turned on July 1, but until then the production rate will not correlate to delivery rate in the same way it normally does.

 

[Starno]

Wall Street love job cut in general.
This pre market doesn't surprise me.

 

[bambam4171]

Delivery shaping to avoid hitting 200k. Nothing more. The delivery pipeline will be completely filled and ready to be turned on July 1, but until then the production rate will not correlate to delivery rate in the same way it normally does.

But that would mean, that they indeed are producing less now, right? Which of course could send the stock tumbling.

 

[Dan Detweiler]

But that would mean, that they indeed are producing less now, right? Which of course could send the stock tumbling.

Not necessarily. Remember, they can produce as many cars as they want. The only cars that count toward the 200K number are those that are actually delivered to American customers.

Dan

 

[bambam4171]

I do understand that, but as we are lacking VIN assignments it seems they are not sending tons of cars to Cananda, they also have no place to store them out of sight so the only conclusion is they don't produce as much, no?

 

[Todd Burch]

But that would mean, that they indeed are producing less now, right? Which of course could send the stock tumbling.

I am positive they are PRODUCING as many cars as they possibly can. The 200,000 car limit does not get imposed on Tesla until the car is delivered. I'm confident they're DELIVERING every car they can to Canada, they will deliver as many US cars as they can to get right under the 200K limit, and stockpiling the rest for delivery at the beginning of Q3. That's just the obvious, logical thing to do. Occam's razor.

 

[mongo]

I do understand that, but as we are lacking VIN assignments it seems they are not sending tons of cars to Cananda, they also have no place to store them out of sight so the only conclusion is they don't produce as much, no?

Have you seen the Canadian threads? Hundreds per day from Hall 6 International Center.
https://teslamotorsclub.com/tmc/threads/international-centre-delivery-experiences.116547

Also reports of the Pilot? site in Michigan having car there...

 

[bambam4171]

I'm looking mostly at the tesla invites spreadsheet and new entries there seem far and few in between https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet...xGp6xUL5j8DqkMPY0K9TfOCDz83A_7HGcQCl/pubhtml#

 

[StapleGun]

I do understand that, but as we are lacking VIN assignments it seems they are not sending tons of cars to Cananda, they also have no place to store them out of sight so the only conclusion is they don't produce as much, no?

VINs aren't assigned until 7-days before delivery now so if they produce a car today for delivery July 1 then we wouldn't expect a VIN assignment yet. They don't have a to store them out of sight, and they have in the past rented large outdoor lots to stockpile.

Also reports of the Pilot? site in Michigan having car there...

Whats this about a site in Michigan? I'll go check it out if it is near.

 

[Todd Burch]

I'm looking mostly at the tesla invites spreadsheet and new entries there seem far and few in between Model 3 Invites Spreadsheet Published Web Version

Recent changes Tesla has made (not revealing VINS until 7 days before delivery), the database split due to the rift between Troy & Chojn, etc.) have made the database stuff a lot less useful, and I think many have abandoned it as a result.

 

[K_Dizzle]

VINs aren't assigned until 7-days before delivery now so if they produce a car today for delivery July 1 then we wouldn't expect a VIN assignment yet. They don't have a to store them out of sight, and they have in the past rented large outdoor lots to stockpile.



Whats this about a site in Michigan? I'll go check it out if it is near.

After my vin disappeared it didn’t appear agaian on mytesla until a day after I took delivery.

 

[Zhelko Dimic]

I'm looking mostly at the tesla invites spreadsheet and new entries there seem far and few in between https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet...xGp6xUL5j8DqkMPY0K9TfOCDz83A_7HGcQCl/pubhtml#

I didn't know about rift between Troy and Chojn. It's possible any one of them is getting half of data now.
But even if that is not the case, I attribute some fallout to the change in behavior. VIN assignment used to be meaningful, an indication how your car is progressing. If you are now getting VIN after you get a call from delivery specialist and you schedule delivery, who care ebough about VIN to enter it? Could've change behaviour dramatically.
Just a theory, I'm not a behavioural scientist If I'm wrong, and VINs are representative, production is doing really poorly. However, schedule of deliveries doesn't align with poor output

 

[mongo]

Whats this about a site in Michigan? I'll go check it out if it is near.

Original reference:

It's just where all the cars are being kept in Michigan before they are being further transported across the border. It's the Pilot Transport company facility in Brighton, Michigan. My car has been there since May 21st waiting to be shipped here. Presumable after all these cars clear out this coming week for delivery.

I thought I'd read it wasn't emptying as much as expected, but don't single source me on that...

 

[Irishjugg]

Sorry if this is the wrong place but after a bit of googling I was surprised I couldn't find a list of important dates. Thinking along the lines of timing options for keys dates like quarterly delivery numbers and then reports. Any other dates you guys are watching out for and where do you find them?

Thanks!

They tend to just be well known by people following it, even Google and yahoo finance pages don't do a good job.

Delivery numbers are 3ish days after reac quarter end.

Earnings and conference call are the first or second Wednesday, 1 month after quarter end (so April, July, October, Jan)

 

[mongo]

MMD to the tune of 100k shares per minute (average, first few minutes saw 1 million traded)...

 

[Curt Renz]

StreetInsider - this morning: Tesla (TSLA) Job Cuts Take Air Out of Bear Thesis - Baird