TSLA Market Action: 2018 Investor Roundtable

[winfield100]

I don't do it in any fancy way, probably a mathematician who can show something more elegant...

A1 = starting price
B1 = starting price * 1.01
A2 = B1
B2 = fill-down from B1
Fill down... A2 and B2 for as many days as you want.

I stand corrected on the terminology...

View attachment 311182

an easier way is use the x^y function on any calculator
0.1% = 1.001
Raise 1.001 to the 3,650 power (10 years) = 38.4
OR
raise 1.001 to the 2,500 power (10 years of trading days) = 12.167
multiply by stock price using either 38.4 or 12.167
38.4 * present stock price = ~$13,700 (YeeHaw!!)

 

[mickificki]

Curt, thank you for sharing that post.

On that same page, seems like member CapitalistOppressor had some good intuition. I wonder if he did actually sell or let it ride:

"I'd be impressed if it breaks $40 as well. All the same, the psychology break points I've been playing for the past few months have basically played out. I'm extremely happy with my gains in the past few months and the last time we were up here I felt it was overvalued and cashed out.

That worked for me then, but this time it feels more like the stock is testing a newer, higher equilibrium as opposed to just riding a bubble of exuberance. I think this time I'm going to just see where the stock feels like going instead of trying to lock in my gains.

The realist in me says that a fall back to $35 (or lower) seems more likely than not, but my gut is telling me to put some steaks on the grill, light a cigar and give the stock an opportunity to break out."

Below is a link to one of my earliest TMC posts on 2013 MAR 12, which was shortly after I first purchased TSLA shares. At that time some surrounding posters reported selling the stock in the high $30's with hopes of buying back after a significant dip. Many of them were never heard from again.

Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2013

Final paragraph from that post:

Perhaps longer term investors need not be too concerned. When a large number of traders feel it’s time to take profits in anticipation of repurchases at lower prices, yet are unable to depress prices much by their selling, those traders may eventually have to chase a stock that is running away on them.

 

[avoigt]

Curt, thank you for sharing that post.

On that same page, seems like member CapitalistOppressor had some good intuition. I wonder if he did actually sell or let it ride:

"I'd be impressed if it breaks $40 as well. All the same, the psychology break points I've been playing for the past few months have basically played out. I'm extremely happy with my gains in the past few months and the last time we were up here I felt it was overvalued and cashed out.

That worked for me then, but this time it feels more like the stock is testing a newer, higher equilibrium as opposed to just riding a bubble of exuberance. I think this time I'm going to just see where the stock feels like going instead of trying to lock in my gains.

The realist in me says that a fall back to $35 (or lower) seems more likely than not, but my gut is telling me to put some steaks on the grill, light a cigar and give the stock an opportunity to break out."

Stating the obvious, one of the biggest challenges in the stock market for the human mind is to do nothing and wait.

We just have not been constructed for that task but if you master it you will win.

 

[Tslynk67]

It's all a bit boring today. I suppose after yesterday we ought to be grateful...

 

[Tslynk67]

Stating the obvious, one of the biggest challenges in the stock market for the human mind is to do nothing and wait.

We just have not been constructed for that task but if you master it you will win.

Mostly agree - so far I've bought and held, but if we had a squeeze and the SP jumped to $1000 intraday, then back to $450, wouldn't it be nice to take profit of that? It's one of the few scenarios where I will sell before Elon gets his full compensation package. Of course I intend to buy back in again when it drops, hence I would increase my position dramatically with little risk.

 

[Waiting4M3]

It's all a bit boring today. I suppose after yesterday we ought to be grateful...

Nah, it's still green. Sure it's not a SpaceX day going straight up, but it's not a Boring day going underground either. Just an usual Tesla day, ground level maybe slightly up 1%.

 

[Bobbyducati]

Stating the obvious, one of the biggest challenges in the stock market for the human mind is to do nothing and wait.

We just have not been constructed for that task but if you master it you will win.

ive been trying to work on this recently. indeed, rather difficult.

 

[avoigt]

Mostly agree - so far I've bought and held, but if we had a squeeze and the SP jumped to $1000 intraday, then back to $450, wouldn't it be nice to take profit of that? It's one of the few scenarios where I will sell before Elon gets his full compensation package. Of course I intend to buy back in again when it drops, hence I would increase my position dramatically with little risk.

What you describe is the behavior we have been build for and that is either fight or run.

Both noting that is received well at the stock market and that includes in my eyes a short squeeze.

 

[Chickenlittle]

What you describe is the behavior we have been build for and that is either fight or run.

Both noting that is received well at the stock market and that includes in my eyes a short squeeze.

Of course most investors would buy you don't know the peak until too late. It could go to 950 and your waiting for 1000 or go to 1200 and you sold at 1000. Better strategy in my opinion is to sell alloquots on the way up. Buffet is right don't aim for the absolute top or aim for the absolute bottom

 

[Zythryn]

Stating the obvious, one of the biggest challenges in the stock market for the human mind is to do nothing and wait.

We just have not been constructed for that task but if you master it you will win.

It makes it much easier to master if you are already a master at procrastination and being lazy in general, like me

 

[Greenback]

Tesla suing employee for stealing GB's worth of information. Filed today in Nevada.

 

[LordAstinus]

Tesla suing employee for stealing GB worth of information. Filed today in Nevada.

Tesla sues former employee for allegedly stealing gigabytes of data, making false claims to media

 

[Henchman]

I'm still looking longterm.
Not looking to get filthy rich from the stock, I'm too late at the game for that.
But I'll be adding at least a single share every month for at least the next 5 years.

Short term I will gamble on calls.
Right now, I've got $10 calls for Auhust 17th at $425.

 

[Henchman]

Tesla sues former employee for allegedly stealing gigabytes of data, making false claims to media

The shorts can't pretend it's made up, now someone has been named.

 

[avoigt]

The shorts can't pretend it's made up, now someone has been named.

Its a required and necessary step. Beside the stolen data and coding the more interesting one is that they also sue for making false claims to media. Finally fighting back!

Also its about time that they put measures into place that keeps them under control of the information that leaves the ground. As much as I like all the videos and pictures we have seen lately its rather a hassle than helpful for the mission of Tesla.

 

[mongo]

Tesla sues former employee for allegedly stealing gigabytes of data, making false claims to media

Sorry for triple post, but briefly...
GF Employee.

Tripp also made false claims to the media about the information he stole. For example, Tripp claimed that punctured battery cells had been used in certain Model 3 vehicles even though no punctured cells were ever used in vehicles, batteries or otherwise. Tripp also vastly exaggerated the true amount and value of “scrap” material that Tesla generated during the manufacturing process, and falsely claimed that Tesla was delayed in bringing new manufacturing equipment online.

Tesla requests that the Court take affirmative action to protect its trade secrets, as set forth in 18 U.S.C. § 1836(b)(3)(A)(ii), including by ordering the inspection of Tripp’s computers, personal USB and electronic storage devices, email accounts, “cloud”-based storage accounts, and mobile phone call and message history to determine the extent to which Tesla trade secrets were wrongfully taken and/or disseminated to others.

Edit: As title states, also took GB of data and also left programs on other people's machines to send data after he was terminated. Filing is at https://sc.cnbcfm.com/applications/cnbc.com/resources/editorialfiles/2018/06/20/Tripp.pdf

 

[neroden]

The lawsuit is a first step, and allows Tesla to collect damages from the saboteur (up to the point where he declares bankruptcy); I assume Tesla's also filing a police report, since the activity was criminal.

 

[EinSV]

The lawsuit is a first step, and allows Tesla to collect damages from the saboteur (up to the point where he declares bankruptcy); I assume Tesla's also filing a police report, since the activity was criminal.

More importantly, they will get to conduct discovery, including into his phone and electronic records, to find out who else was involved.

And probably on a very short time-frame since trade secrets are involved.

 

[EnzoXYZ]

Below is a link to one of my earliest TMC posts on 2013 MAR 12, which was shortly after I first purchased TSLA shares. At that time some surrounding posters reported selling the stock in the high $30's with hopes of buying back after a significant dip. Many of them were never heard from again.

Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2013

Final paragraph from that post:

Perhaps longer term investors need not be too concerned. When a large number of traders feel it’s time to take profits in anticipation of repurchases at lower prices, yet are unable to depress prices much by their selling, those traders may eventually have to chase a stock that is running away on them.

Curt thanks for sharing again. This and the video of Jim Cramer explaining how the hedge fund industry works never gets old. It’s a great reminder for all of us time to time.

That said, I’m an advocate of using small position for trading to keep your interest. I have no more than 15% allocated to short term trades of all type of tech stocks. I’m long Tesla and will be for many years to come until the narrative changes if ever.

 

[Remus]

I used to see from this forum some bulls making outlandish predictions, thinking if the price is based on those predictions I'd better sell. But recently this twitter thing is a real eye opener. Man those bears are plain $%u0i@. They grabbed on the fact that Tesla did not call the police like their last straw. Are they really all that stupid or are they trying to fool some plain dumb people? do they really think people would sell the stock based on that?