...and I actually did. I can use the pocket money. High volatility is my friend...
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now that the q2 delivery numbers are around the corner, and we expect floodgates open. are we assuming that only the floodgates opening is the catalyst for he next big move?
or if not, what are our best educated guess at what could be that catalyst?
i can’t see deliveries being it...unless a crazy amount of Canada ordered LR RWD.
production and invites this week and early july?
won’t it be hard to judge without considerable doubt, translating into market not moving much in the next couple weeks?
probaby dumb bullet points, but trying to entice those more in the know on certain subjects to divulge their thoughts as well
- truck reveal, not going to do it. you do the next trick, not the same one over again..while exciting, that prob won’t spark another rally, even if combined with clear volume on prod and invites/deliveries.
- partnership/investment type news, as in, teaming up with someone on the china GF (or europe). may also be great news depending on the terms, but would the market know enough to interpret that value, unless clearly apparent..preventing much movement on stk?
- someone said AP news. dunno, maybe. if it was a major leap but (aren’t they bound by regulation to allow any major FSD changes) that would be big enough to impact bottom line?
- hinted at battery cost /kwh being around 100 or sub 100 in the coming years. doubtful that’s the catalyst
- buffalo, what’s going on up there? all the hooplah is allowing everyone to ignore it.
- cash flow positive q2? doubtful (insert laughs) . and that doesn’t jive with (shorts explode 3 wks)
- another energy storage project. mkt seems to have been shrugging those off. maybe a big saudi deal?, or becoming profitable early on that? but he already recently stated most likely not bigger margins on that said until closer to end of year
ok i’ll let others jump in..
what else?
or if not, what are our best educated guess at what could be that catalyst?
i can’t see deliveries being it...unless a crazy amount of Canada ordered LR RWD.
production and invites this week and early july?
won’t it be hard to judge without considerable doubt, translating into market not moving much in the next couple weeks?
probaby dumb bullet points, but trying to entice those more in the know on certain subjects to divulge their thoughts as well
- truck reveal, not going to do it. you do the next trick, not the same one over again..while exciting, that prob won’t spark another rally, even if combined with clear volume on prod and invites/deliveries.
- partnership/investment type news, as in, teaming up with someone on the china GF (or europe). may also be great news depending on the terms, but would the market know enough to interpret that value, unless clearly apparent..preventing much movement on stk?
- someone said AP news. dunno, maybe. if it was a major leap but (aren’t they bound by regulation to allow any major FSD changes) that would be big enough to impact bottom line?
- hinted at battery cost /kwh being around 100 or sub 100 in the coming years. doubtful that’s the catalyst
- buffalo, what’s going on up there? all the hooplah is allowing everyone to ignore it.
- cash flow positive q2? doubtful (insert laughs) . and that doesn’t jive with (shorts explode 3 wks)
- another energy storage project. mkt seems to have been shrugging those off. maybe a big saudi deal?, or becoming profitable early on that? but he already recently stated most likely not bigger margins on that said until closer to end of year
ok i’ll let others jump in..
what else?
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sundaymorning
Active Member
On June 5th we traded around $290, after the shareholder meeting we were on a 2 week tear to $370s. If we can produce 4,500-5k Model 3s I believe it we will slowly move up as buyers return. If we hit 5k then it’ll obviously be a good thing and we move up, 5.5-6k will be fireworks. Then add in all the things you mentioned above and I think there is a case for a prolonged squeeze as bears wake up every morning in a bad mood until margin calls.
It’s hard to see a squeeze happening without the 5k confirmation, but once it’s confirmed then things will make a lot more sense.
agreed, i still think there’s something up his sleeve. the angry behavior and confidence over the last few months really show he’s had a hair across his *ss and he’s looking to put an end to the BS. he knows clearing production hurdles are the clear path, but i wouldn’t be surprised if something else was going on too. i’m dying in suspense
Tesla A.I. chip. Possibly every car made since end of 1Q has it already?agreed, i still think there’s something up his sleeve. the angry behavior and confidence over the last few months really show he’s had a hair across his *ss and he’s looking to put an end to the BS. he knows clearing production hurdles are the clear path, but i wouldn’t be surprised if something else was going on too. i’m dying in suspense
sundaymorning
Active Member
agreed, i still think there’s something up his sleeve. the angry behavior and confidence over the last few months really show he’s had a hair across his *ss and he’s looking to put an end to the BS. he knows clearing production hurdles are the clear path, but i wouldn’t be surprised if something else was going on too. i’m dying in suspense
Not my words but Cramer’s:
“Elon is a master in dealing with shorts.”
jhm
Well-Known Member
The best catalyst is no news. The stock rises for no good reason when the press is quiet. But when there is positive news, the stock will most likely decline.
The search for positive catalysts is futile. Just wait for a quiet day, and this stock will soar.
Bet TSLA
Active Member
Gosh, is that how he attracts so many of them?
Seriously, it's pretty clear that having these people around doesn't make Elon happy. If he were really a master at dealing with shorts, there wouldn't be any. I think he's just reactive. And so far he hasn't been effective in getting rid of them. Perhaps they've lost money, but I don't see any indication that anybody on either side cares much about that.
agreed, i still think there’s something up his sleeve. the angry behavior and confidence over the last few months really show he’s had a hair across his *ss and he’s looking to put an end to the BS. he knows clearing production hurdles are the clear path, but i wouldn’t be surprised if something else was going on too. i’m dying in suspense
I agree, the 5k/week wouldn't trigger a squeeze IMHO. There must be something else up his sleeve to be so confident.
But it could also be Elon's wishful thinking that good delivery numbers + production rate + Chinese GF announcement (with some financial support/investment for it eg from Tencent) would trigger the squeeze.
My gut feeling is that there will not be a real VW-style squeeze, just some moderate short-BBQ this time (which could still break new ATH). Then after Q3 ER (if it really provides CF+ and profits), there could be another round of short burning, but still not clearing all the die-hard shorts. The final nail in their coffin will be 2019 Feb-Mar with Q4 ER showing more profits + model Y unveil resulting in huge number of reservations (in the millions). If the number of short at that point is still significant, that could be a real squeeze, but I think the numbers will be reduced enough by that time to avoid that, nevertheless a new spike and new ATH should result from the remaining shorts covering.
Yes, it's increasingly clear that the big shorts are in it to destroy Tesla, they don't care how much they lose while they try to achieve their goal. The only way to stop shorts like that is to force steep enough losses that their banks and brokers refuse to continue dealing with them because it could actually cause the banks and brokers significant financial harm to keep being exposed to that activity.
I don't know what the catalyst was to finally make Chanos give up on destroying Fairfax Financial but Tesla probably needs to reach that threshold. In the end Fairfax actually sued Chanos and I wonder if Tesla will also go that route at some point.
- I still don't know what Elon was talking about when he tweeted about a month ago : ''those are really big numbers'' strangely I can't find the original twit. Maybe it was a response to something else that I didn't get... so if anybody recall something about it, please tell me because since I read it, I just can't get it out of my head, lol.
- Production numbers : Maybe I am overlooking production numbers, we are all waiting for that 5k/week to be confirmed and have been for a little while. And maybe the market will understand rapidly that 5k/week = breakeven point on production and 5k/week is only the beginning ; we might or might not see 10k/week in 2018, but we will certainly exit 2018 with something in between 5k and 10k a week. Now, with the last tune up that happened in the last week on the M3 production (like a GA line in a tent) maybe the breakeven point just got lower than 5k/week, especially with AWD and P versions now available.
- Deliveries number : I checked about three times in the quarter for CPO available in Canada, As of now, there is ONE model X and FOUR model S available... for the whole Canadian market. CPO availability kind of disappeared in may and, to my (limited) knowledge, never came back.
So Tamberrino is birching for a 22 000 model 3 and some articles like this one are stating that there is a consensus of 28 000
Elon Musk: Doubters of Model 3 delivery number are in for a 'rude awakening'
What will happen to the stock if we are at about 35 000 model 3 AND we break another record in Model S and X sales/production/deliveries ?
- Next gigafactory and partnership with China : I guess this will really boost the stock but I don't expect a deal to be released WITH the production numbers. Although a said deal might be tied to some condition where Tesla has to demonstrate that they can ramp mass production and/or achieve a certain profitability. So MAYBE (yes, this is a big maybe) potential partners are on top of the fence just waiting quarterly numbers to sign a deal.
- TE : I'm still eager to see the famous 1 GW/h deal and the terms of it, but just like the China deal I don't expect such a deal to be announced with quarterly numbers.
- TE part 2 : was there a revenue recognition for Puerto Rico installs in the past quarters?
- TE part 3 : (insert another big MAYBE here) while cranking battery pack production at GF for model 3, Tesla have accelerated production for Powerwall/Powerpack. So if production accelerated first at GF and M3 lines where not ready to take those cells, Tesla used (maybe not the M3 cells themselves but at least the production capacity for those cells) to output a bunch of so awaited/demand off the hook Powerwalls...
So that is it for me, who is next
also good point. squeezes don’t always happen in a short period of time. it can be a sustained string of accomplishments, milestones, piggy-backed by good earnings, product developments. it would take that to get to some of the astronomical prices people are talking about in the forums.
however, short positions exploding, would make one think that it’s a big announcement.
personally, i’d be quite impressed just going back to 370-375 over the next two weeks. i don’t think it’s going to be a slam dunk...markets usually don’t follow what’s seemingly choreographed. although this is so polarizing, it’s tough to tell what’s baked in and what’s going give.
I think it's just Elon's wishful thinking. He *is* a notorious optimist.
- I still don't know what Elon was talking about when he tweeted about a month ago : ''those are really big numbers'' strangely I can't find the original twit. Maybe it was a response to something else that I didn't get... so if anybody recall something about it, please tell me because since I read it, I just can't get it out of my head, lol.
- Production numbers : Maybe I am overlooking production numbers, we are all waiting for that 5k/week to be confirmed and have been for a little while. And maybe the market will understand rapidly that 5k/week = breakeven point on production and 5k/week is only the beginning ; we might or might not see 10k/week in 2018, but we will certainly exit 2018 with something in between 5k and 10k a week. Now, with the last tune up that happened in the last week on the M3 production (like a GA line in a tent) maybe the breakeven point just got lower than 5k/week, especially with AWD and P versions now available.
- Deliveries number : I checked about three times in the quarter for CPO available in Canada, As of now, there is ONE model X and FOUR model S available... for the whole Canadian market. CPO availability kind of disappeared in may and, to my (limited) knowledge, never came back.
So Tamberrino is birching for a 22 000 model 3 and some articles like this one are stating that there is a consensus of 28 000
Elon Musk: Doubters of Model 3 delivery number are in for a 'rude awakening'
What will happen to the stock if we are at about 35 000 model 3 AND we break another record in Model S and X sales/production/deliveries ?
- Next gigafactory and partnership with China : I guess this will really boost the stock but I don't expect a deal to be released WITH the production numbers. Although a said deal might be tied to some condition where Tesla has to demonstrate that they can ramp mass production and/or achieve a certain profitability. So MAYBE (yes, this is a big maybe) potential partners are on top of the fence just waiting quarterly numbers to sign a deal.
- TE : I'm still eager to see the famous 1 GW/h deal and the terms of it, but just like the China deal I don't expect such a deal to be announced with quarterly numbers.
- TE part 2 : was there a revenue recognition for Puerto Rico installs in the past quarters?
- TE part 3 : (insert another big MAYBE here) while cranking battery pack production at GF for model 3, Tesla have accelerated production for Powerwall/Powerpack. So if production accelerated first at GF and M3 lines where not ready to take those cells, Tesla used (maybe not the M3 cells themselves but at least the production capacity for those cells) to output a bunch of so awaited/demand off the hook Powerwalls...
So that is it for me, who is next
1) big #s tweet, i vaguely remember this, but not the context or reason. hopefully someone can throw an assist for us
2) sounds like canada is in a supply shortage
3) i think PR is one of the reasons for little to no margin on tesla energy
- would they have been aggressively trying to maximize profit responding to a natural disaster?
- also a logistical nightmare post storm
4) stationary and EV batteries are different right? even so, that doesn’t mean that TE isn’t making progress on that front.
interesting stuff, thanks
sorry, unrelated to tesla stock price (hopefully) ...meanwhile, twitter is a wreck over the unicorn drawing. what nonsense. everyone just trying to cash in and/or gain followers and get recognition. the benefits of “new” social media are increasingly being outweighed by the aggravation of dealing with the foolish masses. i have twitter to follow elon, that’s the only account i follow. i wish there were an easier way, but he prefers it that way. it’s a powerful tool for him, but at times a potential quagmire
Agreed. In addition to the production rates on 3 (and X and S numbers), this is my pick for what will start surprising to the upside during Q3. However, note that we mean not 1 gigawatt per hour (the rate of change of power output), but rather 1 gigawatt-hour ( a unit of measure of energy storage)
jhm
Well-Known Member
I can't tell you how many times we've waited for positive catalysts, then when the come, the stock ranks. This pattern is so pronounced that I proposed a law explaining it.
Law of News Nullification
Whenever Tesla makes positive news, it is necessary for shorts to attack the stock price so as to nullify a positive appraisal of that new.
This is a propaganda technique that works reliably because stock price movement are always construed as how the market reacts to the news. So no matter how positive the news may objectively be, if the stock price tank, it will be understood that the market did not think that the news was good at all.
It is a form of gas lighting. Tesla could report that it sustained 6k/week Model 3 production in the last two weeks of June. The stock price falls 10% the following day. From that point on the actual production success is rendered irrelevant or suspicious, as the narrative turns to try to explain why the market reacted to badly too it.
The cognitive error here is to assume that the stock movement was reflective of how investors in the market appraised the news. The point of the news nullification law is to clarify that shorts have a perverse motive to force the price down so as not to lose narrative control of the stock. In other words, they are willing to lose money so as to create an illusion.
Once you recognize that certain powerful forces are essentially waging a propaganda war against Tesla, it becomes clear how to trade against that.
- Never buy in anticipation of positive news.
- Buy after positive news has come out and the stock price has been punished to nullify it.
Of course, the tricky thing is that shorts are not always successful in driving down prices after good news has come out. As a law, they are always compelled to try to nullify the news, but they are not always successful. Trying to anticipate these failed attempts is probably riskier than simply accepting that they sometimes happen. This goes back to rule one. If you think you can anticipate a failed news nullification event, you are likely participating in momentary pre-news hype. The bigger the pre-news hype is the more likely and severe the nullification will be.
So keep this in mind as we anticipate quarterly numbers coming out. The better those numbers are, the more severely the stock will be punished.
I have recently made a last call on sub $330 prices. That was the price we should have bought at in preparation for the coming news. If the price goes much above $350 pre-news, watch out. If the news is good, they will beat it back, but there is no need for it to go below $330 ever again, unless longs lose the fortitude to buy at a really good price. You'll also notice that I often encourage longs to buy when the stock is beaten up. The fortitude to do so collectively puts a floor on the price and is the smartest way to make money off of the bullying tactics of shorts.
We'll see how this next round goes. If we keep the price between $330 and $350 until the good news comes out, then we are in a good position to weather the news nullification that will follow. For example the stock gets knocked back about $10, pauses the next day, and roars back up the day after that. Then we're in position to see $430 or something like that in a month or so.
So all this is the ravings of a madman. Invest at your own discretion.
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