So not all trolls live under bridges? This is why I love this forum. I learn something new every day.Small cave I'd expect.
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So not all trolls live under bridges? This is why I love this forum. I learn something new every day.Small cave I'd expect.
Maybe you don’t need a battery factory since you can order battery cells from LG Chem, CATL etc.
That’s what all large car makers are doing. LG Chem just started building another 32 GWh EV battery factory in China...
Capital / funding is the bottleneck here:
Let me know how Tesla can finish the remaining ~70% of GF1, finish and ramp GF2 (solar) and then finance GF3 and GF4 in Asia/Europe. Another $20-25 billion or so needed in total (remember that GF3 and 4 are supposedly making cars and batteries in the same factory...).
Love it. No need to change it back until they all go away.@Mod, can you rename this thread "Arguing With Trolls Interspersed With Occasional Market Action Comments"?
Thank you.
Mod: Done! Too good a suggestion to ignore. But I'll put it back this evening. --ggr.
So in perpetuity?Love it. No need to change it back until they all go away.
Like Elon, even after 10+ years on this forum, I'm still an optimist.So in perpetuity?
Mostly just that EVs are generically better than ICEs.
But some extra details of my view:
-- Autonomy is actually harder to implement on ICEs, because of their screwy control systems and lag time.
-- I believe EV advantages will be more popular than partial-autonomy advantages.
-- For "full autonomy" robotaxis I think it will first happen in cities and will only be in big cities for a long time. (There are all kinds of reasons why it's very hard in rural areas.) Big cities are *really eager* to get rid of tailpipe pollution, and will really push EV autonomous cars over smoke-spewers, by regulation if necessary.
Actually, we should revisit what you wrote "a long time ago".
(1) Hyundai was forced to stop selling Ionics in Canada, because of a "global battery supply shortage": Battery shortage interrupts Hyundai Ioniq Electric sales
And then Honda introduced this as their future BEV: Honda’s Urban EV Concept is even more adorable in the flesh, a tiny 2-door urban.
And who is going to assemble those cells into usable packs?
That’s the gem you found? Honda USA may have delayed one EV in NA, but a new Honda EV is still coming to China in 2018 in CUV form:
Honda about to launch three EVs in China - electrive.com
The small Honda urban EV you mentioned is yet another model coming in 2019 (to Europe, likely not NA due to its small size. Just adding this before someone nitpicks again).
Hyundai / Kia also sell the Niro and the Kona now, both are EVs above 200 miles of range (large battery options). Same for Nissan for the 2019 LEAF.
2018-2021 is when long-range EVs arrive from most brands - 2020-2025 is when they arrive in massive numbers based on dedicated EV platforms (see once again VW with their MEB toolkit).
There’s a global market out there. Look beyond borders to value a company or see its sales numbers.
Too bad nobody wants to predict when Tesla catches up to Volvo (~ 600k units / year).
Volvo battery sizesToo bad nobody wants to predict when Tesla catches up to Volvo (~ 600k units / year).
It takes German engineers a few weeks to come up with a line that can do that for 2500 packs/week (don't quote me on that, it's Elon talking)
Hyundai / Kia also sell the Niro and the Kona now, both are EVs above 200 miles of range (large battery options). Same for Nissan for the 2019 LEAF.
Well, one particular German company that specialized in such things. Also, it's not clear to me that it only took them a few weeks to come up with it, given that they'd been working with Tesla for some years. Who knows how much lead time there was. Enigneering companies, like engineers themselves, are not just interchangeable. Anyway, time will tell.It takes German engineers a few weeks to come up with a line that can do that for 2500 packs/week (don't quote me on that, it's Elon talking)
That’s the gem you found? Honda USA may have delayed one EV in NA, but a new Honda EV is still coming to China in 2018 in CUV form:
Honda about to launch three EVs in China - electrive.com
The small Honda urban EV you mentioned is yet another model coming in 2019 (to Europe, likely not NA due to its small size. Just adding this before someone nitpicks again).
Hyundai / Kia also sell the Niro and the Kona now, both are EVs above 200 miles of range (large battery options). Same for Nissan for the 2019 LEAF.
2018-2021 is when long-range EVs arrive from most brands - 2020-2025 is when they arrive in massive numbers based on dedicated EV platforms (see once again VW with their MEB toolkit).
There’s a global market out there. Look beyond borders to value a company or see its sales numbers.
Too bad nobody wants to predict when Tesla catches up to Volvo (~ 600k units / year).
That 600k figure from Volvo doesn't include any BEVs. Nor does it take into account ASP or profit margin.
even at your 400,000, thats 34 gigawatt hours of batteries.So, simpler question. Forget about Volvo.
So since he predicted 1 M cars/year for 2020 the 600k should be doable easily (adjusted 400k units for his optimism)?
I wrote < 1%. That’s a niche.
Simple question: When will Tesla sell more cars than Volvo (rounded-up 2017 numbers at 600k) per year?
(Volvo is growing sales, but let’s freeze Volvo at 2017 numbers)
Volvo is a good benchmark example because it sells only into higher-end segments, is profitable and will soon electrify its entire car portfolio.
So, simple question:
When will Tesla sell more than 600k car units / year in your opinion (all readers invited)?
Then compare the market feedback to Volvo’s planned IPO with Tesla’s current market cap:
Volvo Cars IPO Draws Lower Valuations in Initial Feedback
PS: Volvo already has several factories in Asia (two more in China under construction), NA and Europe.
Remember it takes several years to get a car factory up and running (full ramp).