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TSLA Market Action: 2018 Investor Roundtable

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Maybe you don’t need a battery factory since you can order battery cells from LG Chem, CATL etc.
That’s what all large car makers are doing. LG Chem just started building another 32 GWh EV battery factory in China...

And who is going to assemble those cells into usable packs? House Elves in the basement of Hogwarts? And this assumes that Chinese automakers, who are going all out in Electrics, won't consume those cells to begin with.

Starting on a factory now, means cells out the door in maybe 2 years, though its difficult to say for sure. Then pack manufacturing has to have the capacity to absorb those cells.


Capital / funding is the bottleneck here:

Let me know how Tesla can finish the remaining ~70% of GF1, finish and ramp GF2 (solar) and then finance GF3 and GF4 in Asia/Europe. Another $20-25 billion or so needed in total (remember that GF3 and 4 are supposedly making cars and batteries in the same factory...).

Tesla has done this before: demonstrate a great product and ability to deliver, and use that credibility to gain partnerships and raise capital through Secondary Offerings or Debt Offerings.

This is exactly what Tesla did with Model S, X, and 3. The Roadster was used as a marketing tool for IPO. Model S was used as a marketing tool to raise capital for more S production and the Model X. Model S and X in turn became marketing tools to raise capital for Model 3.

Model 3 may actually start to provide the cash for future expansion. I believe it was DaveT's analysis that above 5k units/week was when this would happen.

Model 3 production has steadily ramped: Terms of Service Violation.

The "conventional wisdom" I see on the street and on Reddit is that there's no capital. That's a dangerous bet to make.
 
Mostly just that EVs are generically better than ICEs.

But some extra details of my view:
-- Autonomy is actually harder to implement on ICEs, because of their screwy control systems and lag time.
-- I believe EV advantages will be more popular than partial-autonomy advantages.
-- For "full autonomy" robotaxis I think it will first happen in cities and will only be in big cities for a long time. (There are all kinds of reasons why it's very hard in rural areas.) Big cities are *really eager* to get rid of tailpipe pollution, and will really push EV autonomous cars over smoke-spewers, by regulation if necessary.

Based on your point 3, I think the big city mayors are not aggressive enough. There should be more incentives for EV at the city center areas. For example, NYC could say in 5 years, all taxi should be electric. No new taxi license for new ICE starting from 2019 etc. These residents deserve cleaner air and less noise.
 
Actually, we should revisit what you wrote "a long time ago".

(1) Hyundai was forced to stop selling Ionics in Canada, because of a "global battery supply shortage": Battery shortage interrupts Hyundai Ioniq Electric sales

And then Honda introduced this as their future BEV: Honda’s Urban EV Concept is even more adorable in the flesh, a tiny 2-door urban.

That’s the gem you found? Honda USA may have delayed one EV in NA, but a new Honda EV is still coming to China in 2018 in CUV form:

Honda about to launch three EVs in China - electrive.com

The small Honda urban EV you mentioned is yet another model coming in 2019 (to Europe, likely not NA due to its small size. Just adding this before someone nitpicks again).

Hyundai / Kia also sell the Niro and the Kona now, both are EVs above 200 miles of range (large battery options). Same for Nissan for the 2019 LEAF.

2018-2021 is when long-range EVs arrive from most brands - 2020-2025 is when they arrive in massive numbers based on dedicated EV platforms (see once again VW with their MEB toolkit).

There’s a global market out there. Look beyond borders to value a company or see its sales numbers.

Too bad nobody wants to predict when Tesla catches up to Volvo (~ 600k units / year).
 
That’s the gem you found? Honda USA may have delayed one EV in NA, but a new Honda EV is still coming to China in 2018 in CUV form:

Honda about to launch three EVs in China - electrive.com

The small Honda urban EV you mentioned is yet another model coming in 2019 (to Europe, likely not NA due to its small size. Just adding this before someone nitpicks again).

Hyundai / Kia also sell the Niro and the Kona now, both are EVs above 200 miles of range (large battery options). Same for Nissan for the 2019 LEAF.

2018-2021 is when long-range EVs arrive from most brands - 2020-2025 is when they arrive in massive numbers based on dedicated EV platforms (see once again VW with their MEB toolkit).

There’s a global market out there. Look beyond borders to value a company or see its sales numbers.

Too bad nobody wants to predict when Tesla catches up to Volvo (~ 600k units / year).

Doesn't matter. Honda and all their ICE ilks will all go bankrupt. I forsee them needing to raise 100s of billions to start battery manufacturing as well as ramp up EV production. That on top of rising interest rates. It's going to kill their already bloated debt.
Not to mention all their CEOs are just liars. You cannot trust what they say after dieselgate. Some even confirmed they have no cheating devices and later got caught. Shareholder lawsuit soon for lying directly in investor's face.

Their puny low volume EV will not gain enough volume. They lose money for every car they sell, so the more they sell, the faster they will go bankrupt.
 
Too bad nobody wants to predict when Tesla catches up to Volvo (~ 600k units / year).
Volvo battery sizes

Volvo S90 T8 10.4 kWh
Volvo XC60 T8 10.4 kWh
Volvo XC90 T8 9.2 kWh

Tesla battery sizes

Tesla Model S 75D 75 kWh
Tesla Model X 75D 75 kWh
Tesla Model 3 80.5 kWh
Tesla Model S 100D 100 kWh
Tesla Model X 100D 100 kWh

So divide the 600,000 Volvo units by a factor of 7 - 10 to get actual battery usage
or 60,000 to 85,000 equivalents in EV battery size
not quite as impressive as 600,000

or for 2017 Volvo, = ~30,000 kWh and Tesla = ~4,300,00 kWh
or for 2018 Volvo = ~ 19,000 kWh and Tesla = ~3,834,000kWh (so far as of 6/30/2018)
 
Hyundai / Kia also sell the Niro and the Kona now, both are EVs above 200 miles of range (large battery options). Same for Nissan for the 2019 LEAF.

Depends on what you mean by "sell" and "now". Very limited numbers, and their plans are only for 40k per year combined. 769 per week, combined. Well less at present. The first Konas are only just now arriving in Norway. Most markets will have long wait times. It's the Ioniq story all over again.

Hyundai makes decent econobox-EVs, but they produce them in such small numbers that it just screams "compliance cars".
 
It takes German engineers a few weeks to come up with a line that can do that for 2500 packs/week (don't quote me on that, it's Elon talking)
Well, one particular German company that specialized in such things. Also, it's not clear to me that it only took them a few weeks to come up with it, given that they'd been working with Tesla for some years. Who knows how much lead time there was. Enigneering companies, like engineers themselves, are not just interchangeable. Anyway, time will tell.
 
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That’s the gem you found? Honda USA may have delayed one EV in NA, but a new Honda EV is still coming to China in 2018 in CUV form:

Honda about to launch three EVs in China - electrive.com

The small Honda urban EV you mentioned is yet another model coming in 2019 (to Europe, likely not NA due to its small size. Just adding this before someone nitpicks again).

Do you even bother to read these articles?

The author says that Honda wants to bring an electric HR-V to the Chinese market. She then says the 2nd car is an electric XR-V. That is the stupidest thing I've read in the past month. Anyone who knows crap about Honda, knows that the XR-V is the Chinese market version of the JDM Vezel, which is sold in the USDM as the Honda HR-V. They are the same frickin' car.

The fact that you believe this crap says a lot about how much you actually don't have a clue.


Hyundai / Kia also sell the Niro and the Kona now, both are EVs above 200 miles of range (large battery options). Same for Nissan for the 2019 LEAF.

2018-2021 is when long-range EVs arrive from most brands - 2020-2025 is when they arrive in massive numbers based on dedicated EV platforms (see once again VW with their MEB toolkit).

There’s a global market out there. Look beyond borders to value a company or see its sales numbers.

The Kona is a subcompact crossover that competes with vehicles like the Honda HR-V and Chevy Trax. Even in EV form, it still has the same budget-class interior.

Do you seriously believe this competes with a Tesla Model 3? That's as stupid as saying a BMW 3-series buyer is likely to be cross-shopping a Honda HR-V.

It's actually irrelevant whether "massive numbers" of BEVs arrive between 2020-2025. The correct question to be asking is: which car manufacturers pick up the most BEV market share in the most profitable segments with the high value customers.



Too bad nobody wants to predict when Tesla catches up to Volvo (~ 600k units / year).

Again, this is a garbage argument. That 600k figure from Volvo doesn't include any BEVs. Nor does it take into account ASP or profit margin.
 
@tftf
tesla GF is making more GWh of batteries in 2nd half of 2018 than all other battery MF combined globally.
listen to the shrholder meeting, unless you think EM is lying...

so buying off of catl, lg, etc etc is still not going to satisfy ev demand in short term. year(s) will be needed to ramp to the volume tesla is doing

catl just did a 50bb ipo...so in that premise. tesla is undervalued, by, id say a lot. indeed markets are funny.

tesla vs volvo isn’t valid comparison, especially on the valuation premise, cmon.
on the production premise, well we are also told that fremont is ~500k capacity so unless we think he’s lying again...
so the answer is, either a breakthrough in capacity, or china factory online

financing point you made, ok that’s def a challenge. we’ll see how it plays out. deriv hedging seem to be driving tesla sp heading into conv participation (starting dec) and exp in march

JPMorgan Recommends Tesla ‘Crash Puts’ With Tail Risk Rising
 
That 600k figure from Volvo doesn't include any BEVs. Nor does it take into account ASP or profit margin.

So, a simpler question. Forget about Volvo.

When will Tesla cross 600k car units / year?

Model S and X are (combined) at ~ 100k units per year with no major growth projected:

Horace Dediu on Twitter

Here are Elon’s estimates up to 2020:

Horace Dediu on Twitter

So since he predicted 1M cars/year for 2020 the 600k should be doable easily (adjusted for 400k units for his optimism)?

Tesla investors invested for the long term can surely provide a rough estimate, no?
 
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I wrote < 1%. That’s a niche.

Simple question: When will Tesla sell more cars than Volvo (rounded-up 2017 numbers at 600k) per year?

(Volvo is growing sales, but let’s freeze Volvo at 2017 numbers)

Volvo is a good benchmark example because it sells only into higher-end segments, is profitable and will soon electrify its entire car portfolio.

So, simple question:

When will Tesla sell more than 600k car units / year in your opinion (all readers invited)?

Then compare the market feedback to Volvo’s planned IPO with Tesla’s current market cap:

Volvo Cars IPO Draws Lower Valuations in Initial Feedback

PS: Volvo already has several factories in Asia (two more in China under construction), NA and Europe.
Remember it takes several years to get a car factory up and running (full ramp).

I would bet Tesla will sell more than 600k BEV car units / year before any other car manufacturer, including Volvo, BMW, VW, Nissan, Honda or Toyota. And since BEVs are the future of cars, that's the only category that matters when talking about future growth of sales.
 
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