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TSLA Market Action: 2018 Investor Roundtable

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@tftf
tesla GF is making more GWh of batteries in 2nd half of 2018 than all other battery MF combined globally.
listen to the shrholder meeting, unless you think EM is lying...
so buying off of catl, lg, etc etc is still not going to satisfy ev demand in short term. year(s) will be needed to ramp to the volume tesla is doing

(...)

tesla vs volvo isn’t valid comparison, especially on the valuation premise, cmon.
on the production premise, well we are also told that fremont is ~500k capacity so unless we think he’s lying again...
so the answer is, either a breakthrough in capacity, or china factory online

I like to talk about numbers.

- Solar. Tesla or Tesla execs mentioned annual output at either 10GW, 1 GW and 1-2 GW of solar output (at full ramp). All these estimates were given within a few months in 2016-2017. There’s obviously a huge gap between making 1GW or 10GW per year. So which number is it now?

Source for 10GW:

SolarCity’s solar Gigafactory will produce up to 10 GW/year under Tesla, says Elon Musk

- Batteries. To know if GF1 does more batteries in H2 2018 than all other battery makers worldwide combined I need to know numbers. Did Elon / Tesla give a hard number recently? Is that number for cells or packs?

Let’s use 35 GWh for cells (or 17.5 for half a year, doesn’t matter), the original full ramp plan before further expansions.

I doubt his statement is true based on CATL and BYD (without counting Korean companies) data alone for 2018.

But do let me know a recent number for Fremont with a link etc.

- Fremont capacity (/year). Elon claimed in 2016 that Tesla can easily do up to 1 M cars / year there, now it’s back to 500k again? Which one is it?

Source:

Tesla’s Fremont factory could manufacture up to 1 million vehicles per year, says Musk

So thanks to clarify Tesla’s numbers. As you cna see there are many wide range estimates. Hard numbers would help for comparisons and valuation.

PS: I linked to Electek as a source twice on purpose. Their editor just recently confirmed to me that they have the best reporters covering Tesla.
 
  • Informative
Reactions: Snerruc
First of all I love the temporary title. FWIW I vote it stays this way until the majority decides otherwise.
I like to talk about numbers.

- Solar. Tesla or Tesla execs mentioned annual output at either 10GW, 1 GW and 1-2 GW of solar output (at full ramp). All these estimates were given within a few months in 2016-2017. There’s obviously a huge gap between making 1GW or 10GW per year. So which number is it now?

Source for 10GW:

SolarCity’s solar Gigafactory will produce up to 10 GW/year under Tesla, says Elon Musk

- Batteries. To know if GF1 does more batteries in H2 2018 than all other battery makers worldwide combined I need to know numbers. Did Elon / Tesla give a hard number recently? Is that number for cells or packs?

Let’s use 35 GWh for cells (or 17.5 for half a year, doesn’t matter), the original full ramp plan before further expansions.

I doubt his statement is true based on CATL and BYD (without counting Korean companies) data alone for 2018.

But do let me know a recent number for Fremont with a link etc.

- Fremont capacity (/year). Elon claimed in 2016 that Tesla can easily do up to 1 M cars / year there, now it’s back to 500k again? Which one is it?

Source:

Tesla’s Fremont factory could manufacture up to 1 million vehicles per year, says Musk

So thanks to clarify Tesla’s numbers. As you cna see there are many wide range estimates. Hard numbers would help for comparisons and valuation.

PS: I linked to Electek as a source twice on purpose. Their editor just recently confirmed to me that they have the best reporters covering Tesla.
I remember Elon saying theoretically they could hit 1 million per year. Not that they Would.

Edit: tftf is back so that means Tesla is going up very soon. This is the most bullish sign I’ve seen for TSLA in a long time. Perhaps this needs to be cross posted to the TA thread.
 
I don't know if this explanation is true, but at least I understand what you meant by "the formal filing of Martin Tripp with the SEC."

YasB said:
Are you aware that there are two cases? That fund you linked is to hire attorneys for the lawsuit that Teslas filed against Martin Tripp. That Stuart Meissner guy is not involved in that case.

If you have no clue what Meissner meant by his claim that "a forceful Answer is coming" then why do you say Meissner is not involved in the Tesla v. Tripp case? What is the basis for your statement?

It's based on the fact that Martin Tripp hired some other guys for the Tesla vs. Martin Tripp case, where he got sued ...

Tesla Whistleblower Retains Robert Mitchell and Will Fischbach

... and Meissners Twitter feed stating repeatedly he won't get money from that fund. For example here
Stuart D. Meissner on Twitter
or here
Stuart D. Meissner on Twitter

After reading that, i still have no clue what Meissner was refering to with his tweets about a forceful answer and i'm asking myself "An answer to what?!" I'm not sure about his lawyer skills, but he's pretty good at teasing things to come. Still the cases seem to be separated. As a reminder, this discussion started with someone stating "I guess this is the quality of lawyer one can get for $15,000.", which seemed to be wrong.
 
  • Helpful
Reactions: Lessmog
Do you even bother to read these articles?

The author says that Honda wants to bring an electric HR-V to the Chinese market. She then says the 2nd car is an electric XR-V. That is the stupidest thing I've read in the past month. Anyone who knows crap about Honda, knows that the XR-V is the Chinese market version of the JDM Vezel, which is sold in the USDM as the Honda HR-V. They are the same frickin' car.

The fact that you believe this crap says a lot about how much you actually don't have a clue..

Let’s not get lost in details, but Honda has two JVs in China:
  • Dongfeng-Honda. That Honda XR-V comes with a completely different front end and backend design to differ from the Honda Vezel sold by Guangqi Honda
(See Wikipedia). So these will likely be the two different EVs as well.

Funnily enough Dongfeng-Honda alone made over 700k cars in 2017 (with no tents afaik).

When will Tesla make over 700k cars / year?

Since around 80-100 million passenger cars are sold per year no Tesla competitor can go bankrupt as long as Tesla has a market share below 1 %, no?

Who will make the 99% of other cars? Or will everybody else stop buying all those cars?
 
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I like to talk about numbers.

-- Batteries. To know if GF1 does more batteries in H2 2018 than all other battery makers worldwide combined I need to know numbers. Did Elon / Tesla give a hard number recently? Is that number for cells or packs?

Let’s use 35 GWh for cells (or 17.5 for half a year, doesn’t matter), the original full ramp plan before further expansions.

I doubt his statement is true based on CATL and BYD (without counting Korean companies) data alone for 2018.

But do let me know a recent number for Fremont with a link etc.
.
Actual sales as of 6/30/2018 for 2018
Monthly Plug-In Sales Scorecard
TOTAL kWh kWh total
Tesla Model 3* 24,367 80.5 1,961,544 kWh
Tesla Model S* 10,820 85 919,700 kWh
Tesla Model X* 9,525 100 952,500 kWh

grand total kWh 3,833,744 kWh or 3.833 gigawatt hours

based on estimates I have read, the grand total should be closer to 5.5 gigawatt hours when July is added in
note: this does not include powerwalls or power packs, etc
 
Actual sales as of 6/30/2018 for 2018
Monthly Plug-In Sales Scorecard
TOTAL kWh kWh total
Tesla Model 3* 24,367 80.5 1,961,544 kWh
Tesla Model S* 10,820 85 919,700 kWh
Tesla Model X* 9,525 100 952,500 kWh

grand total kWh 3,833,744 kWh or 3.833 gigawatt hours

based on estimates I have read, the grand total should be closer to 5.5 gigawatt hours when July is added in
note: this does not include powerwalls or power packs, etc

Ok, so Model3 should be mostly correct (since sold in US only plus a few in Canada), but did you use US numbers only for S and X unit sales?

Even adjusting S and X for international sales (and generously adding storage batteries) the numbers don’t add up with Elon’s claims.

Here’s CATL alone:

83D7666B-205B-489D-B1B1-03527A06D550.png


Tesla May Be Trampled by CATL in China

Note these numbers were for 2017 and CATL is growing quickly.

How can Tesla then make more GWh of batteries than the rest of the world combined?

Just looking at CATL’s numbers above (from their IPO prospectus) shows that this isn’t the case.

PS: I find it amusing that quoting output numbers from an IPO prospectus is considered trolling now.
 
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It's based on the fact that Martin Tripp hired some other guys for the Tesla vs. Martin Tripp case, where he got sued ...

Tesla Whistleblower Retains Robert Mitchell and Will Fischbach

... and Meissners Twitter feed stating repeatedly he won't get money from that fund. For example here
Stuart D. Meissner on Twitter
or here
Stuart D. Meissner on Twitter

After reading that, i still have no clue what Meissner was refering to with his tweets about a forceful answer and i'm asking myself "An answer to what?!" I'm not sure about his lawyer skills, but he's pretty good at teasing things to come. Still the cases seem to be separated. As a reminder, this discussion started with someone stating "I guess this is the quality of lawyer one can get for $15,000.", which seemed to be wrong.
Thank you for the link regarding Mitchell and Fischbach. That answers my question. I suspect that Meissner in his tweets is simply relaying what Tripp is telling him Mitchell and Fischbach will be doing, i.e. filing a forceful Answer (on July 31).
 
  • Funny
Reactions: madodel
First of all I love the temporary title. FWIW I vote it stays this way until the majority decides otherwise.
I remember Elon saying theoretically they could hit 1 million per year. Not that they Would.

Edit: tftf is back so that means Tesla is going up very soon. This is the most bullish sign I’ve seen for TSLA in a long time. Perhaps this needs to be cross posted to the TA thread.
just curious what tftf means , asking for a friend lol
 
  • Like
Reactions: dhrivnak
Nobody interested in giving me an answer on Tesla‘s solar output and battery output?

Especially the 10 GW solar output/year and the claim that Tesla/Panasonic make more batteries (GWh) than all competitors combined don‘t make sense to me...

I posted quite a few numbers (with sources, see posts above) to back up my skepticism.

Aren‘t such numbers important when investing in a company?

Not to me since I am looking decades out rather that days out.
 
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Reactions: Lhan and madodel
Despite short sellers’ predictions for years that competition is coming “any day now” and will destroy Tesla, insideEVs estimates that Tesla now owns about 78% of the US BEV market.

And that is almost certain to increase over the next few quarters as Tesla ramps up production of the Model 3 and the “competition” starts introducing their overpriced, underperforming EVs that will only sell in small numbers.

Tesla Now Accounts For 45% Of Plug-In Electric Cars Sales In U.S.
 
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Honda has two JVs in China:
  • Dongfeng-Honda. That Honda XR-V comes with a completely different front end and backend design to differ from the Honda Vezel sold by Guangqi Honda
(See Wikipedia). So these will likely be the two different EVs as well.

In other words, you are completely clueless.

The 2 vehicles are built on the same platform, have the same basic frame, both use L and R series VTEC motors and differ mostly in front and rear styling. They are essentially no different than minor mid-model changes (for example the 2015 USDM Honda Accord to the 2016 USDM Honda Accord. Edit: better examples are the 2005 to 2006 USDM Accord, which had panel stamping changes, and 2013 to 2014 USDM Civic Coupe, which underwent a pretty substantial change to the front fenders — and not for the better in looks).

Nobody should believe anything you say. Your knowledge of the auto industry is extremely poor, and it shows throughout your years of posting here.
 
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It's based on the fact that Martin Tripp hired some other guys for the Tesla vs. Martin Tripp case, where he got sued ...

Tesla Whistleblower Retains Robert Mitchell and Will Fischbach

... and Meissners Twitter feed stating repeatedly he won't get money from that fund. For example here
Stuart D. Meissner on Twitter
or here
Stuart D. Meissner on Twitter

After reading that, i still have no clue what Meissner was refering to with his tweets about a forceful answer and i'm asking myself "An answer to what?!" I'm not sure about his lawyer skills, but he's pretty good at teasing things to come. Still the cases seem to be separated. As a reminder, this discussion started with someone stating "I guess this is the quality of lawyer one can get for $15,000.", which seemed to be wrong.

He sucks at teasing about what might be coming up but he’s real good a making himself look like a dick.
 
And who is going to assemble those cells into usable packs? House Elves in the basement of Hogwarts? And this assumes that Chinese automakers, who are going all out in Electrics, won't consume those cells to begin with..

The auto makers will, no elves (or tents) involved.

Take for example Daimler. They will have 8 battery factories globally:

With the retooling of its domestic plants, Mercedes-Benz will have eight battery factories. Daimler already builds batteries in Kamenz, Germany, and is building further plants in Beijing, Bangkok and Tuscaloosa, Alabama.

Daimler to build battery factories in Sindelfingen, Untertuerkheim

Some already completed in Germany, more coming for a total of eight. And that‘s just Daimler (relatively small in terms of unit output among car makers).

As for cell supply: Just two news items from recent weeks...

CATL just announced building another 14 GWh cell factory in Germany for local clients:

China's CATL to build its first European EV battery factory in Germany

LG Chem is adding a 32 GWh factory (that‘s battery factory number five for them globally) in China:

LG Chem to Build Its Second Electric Car Battery Plant in China

And yet Elon Musk keeps claiming that he (via Panasonic) makes more EV batteries than all others combined?
 
Mod official:
Well, we've all had our little bit of fun today. But I'm changing the thread title back. That's because once the market is open, this thread becomes about MARKET ACTION again, and whatever that is, it isn't about repetitive questions about what might happen two years in the future. So posts on that subject will be treated like trolling, surprise!
--ggr.

Edited to add: ignore or respond (your choice) but don't insult.
 
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