Welcome to Tesla Motors Club
Discuss Tesla's Model S, Model 3, Model X, Model Y, Cybertruck, Roadster and More.
Register

TSLA Market Action: 2018 Investor Roundtable

This site may earn commission on affiliate links.
Status
Not open for further replies.
Thank you! That explains things.

I got repeated warnings about this from someone I consider very thoughtful, intelligent, and honest. Asked a Tesla rep about it but he was having some time off and seemed to indicate the production update on the CC would resolve any issue — or I read too much into his comment. We'll see soon enough.
If you want, you can dig through the endless Seeking Alpha archives for the original hit piece. I think it was in 2016? Or 2015? Or maybe 2012? The comments to it are *full* of critical responses saying "you overestimated VOC per car"
 
Well, AMZN was a really hard one to spot. You gotta remember that AMZN basically has no margin on almost all its businesses. To actually predict its recent profits you would have had to realize that the in-house software they created for their *barely breakeven* distribution network... was something they could rent to others for lots and lots of money. I'm talking Amazon Web Services, of course.

You might have guessed that after becoming a monopoly Amazon would be able to charge monopoly profits, but that would have been an incorrect business analysis. It seems that it's quite viable for competitors to leave Amazon and set up their own web shop, for nearly anything, so any attempt to raise gross margins above rock-bottom will get undercut. (Which is why Bezos rarely if ever attempts to raise gross margins on amazon.com.)

On top of that, most of Amazon is cloneable. Easily. The big exception turns out to be AWS... and there are several companies trying to clone it (including Alibaba), they just haven't been able to catch up.

Anyway, thanks for your comment, it gave me a lot to chew on. I generally agree. Not being an Apple-head, I just stayed on the sidelines of Apple.
In the beginning Amazon did have negligible margins on most books it sold and negative margins on quite a lot, since they actually went to physical bookstores to buy books that they then shipped and sold at a lower price. AWS is certainly the most obvious part but Amazon Prime produces massive sales that have excellent GM's. They no longer have the cheapest prices, but do have the most efficient distribution system and best availability. Because they are so diverse now it is hard to make a summary, but I ague that logistics is far and away the largest competitive advantage for them with AWS the other one. I enjoy going deep on this one but both AAPL and AMZN are really OT for this Forum.

Still we Bulls really do need useful analogues for TSLA so that we keep from drinking too much Kook-Aid ourselves.

In my view we lack sufficient examination of Tesla distribution logistics weaknesses, overall customer service support, fleet service, parts supply, demand forecasting. In short all those things that make AMZN so brilliant. Tesla cannot long continue with ad-hoc fleet support. Tesla will have difficulty long prospering without solving US distribution in TX, MI, NY, LA and so on, nor can they thrive without solving Noway-style excessive growth disasters.I am long but quite concerned about these issues as GF-1 reaches maturity, GF-3 and GF-4 enter in China and the EU while GF-2 actually begins to produce in volume. In this area Amazon is King and Tesla is thus far the Joker.

Tesla does have product like nobody else. From some time that will be enough but...
 
I'm looking for this friday's max pain.
Neither Max Pain | Maximum-Pain.com nor Strike Pegger for QQQ work anymore.
These are the two sites I used to work with.
I can't seem to find any calculator that's still working.
Does anyone know the background, why this is so? I guess, they might not have access to the open interest data from nasdaq anymore...?

Any tips where I might get accurate maximum pain data from?
 
I have just shorted 2 TSLA OCT 125 PUTs and shorted another TSLA OCT 130 PUT. Please pray for me, that the stock doesnt fall below 150, until October. Please.
If this level of risk requires a prayer from other TMC members, I think I may need to get the Pope involved for me, given the leverage I have going on.;)
 
I'm looking for this friday's max pain.
Neither Max Pain | Maximum-Pain.com nor Strike Pegger for QQQ work anymore.
These are the two sites I used to work with.
I can't seem to find any calculator that's still working.
Does anyone know the background, why this is so? I guess, they might not have access to the open interest data from nasdaq anymore...?

Any tips where I might get accurate maximum pain data from?
Why doesn't maximum-pain.com work anymore, seems to have just spit out results.

these guys seems to have some nice results.

Opricot Open Interest|Volume|Max Pain

I usually use a spreadsheet with a data load.
 
Last edited:
not buying any shares, but have two weeklies open, short put 257.5 for small $$ and short call 275$ for big $$$, hoping to roll the call down the road with a positive week but am preparing for a modest drop. But who really knows whats going to happen.:confused:
 
In the beginning Amazon did have negligible margins on most books it sold and negative margins on quite a lot, since they actually went to physical bookstores to buy books that they then shipped and sold at a lower price. AWS is certainly the most obvious part but Amazon Prime produces massive sales that have excellent GM's. They no longer have the cheapest prices, but do have the most efficient distribution system and best availability. Because they are so diverse now it is hard to make a summary, but I ague that logistics is far and away the largest competitive advantage for them with AWS the other one. I enjoy going deep on this one but both AAPL and AMZN are really OT for this Forum.

Still we Bulls really do need useful analogues for TSLA so that we keep from drinking too much Kook-Aid ourselves.

In my view we lack sufficient examination of Tesla distribution logistics weaknesses, overall customer service support, fleet service, parts supply, demand forecasting. In short all those things that make AMZN so brilliant. Tesla cannot long continue with ad-hoc fleet support. Tesla will have difficulty long prospering without solving US distribution in TX, MI, NY, LA and so on, nor can they thrive without solving Noway-style excessive growth disasters.I am long but quite concerned about these issues as GF-1 reaches maturity, GF-3 and GF-4 enter in China and the EU while GF-2 actually begins to produce in volume. In this area Amazon is King and Tesla is thus far the Joker.

Tesla does have product like nobody else. From some time that will be enough but...
I think you and @neroden are also underestimating Amazon Fulfillment, where they run ordering and warehouse and deliver for third parties. Part of that is AWS, but by no means all.
 
Wow, Tesla only needs to get Model 3 production above 5750/week to start beating Camry. So this could happen by September. The question is, how much will Camry sales fall off as Tesla approaches this?

Probably not much. I mean, the Camry really is in a lower price bracket.

I sort of suspect the Toyota Avalon is doomed, though.
 
Wow, Tesla only needs to get Model 3 production above 5750/week to start beating Camry. So this could happen by September. The question is, how much will Camry sales fall off as Tesla approaches this?

I doubt $50,000 M3 sales is biting into Camry much. Camry average selling price is something like $24,000.

When the $35,000 version starts shipping it is probably going to impact sales of Camry and Accord.
 
  • Like
Reactions: madodel
Why doesn't maximum-pain.com work anymore, seems to have just spit out results.

The numbers are obviously nonsense as you can see my attached screenshot. Max pain would be 220.
Below there is a table that shows the details of the graphs.
ALL puts that are taken into consideration are out of the money.
ALL calls that are taken into consideration are in the money.
That doesn't make sense at all.
For both puts and calls, some should be in, at and out of the money.
One concrete example. According to the table below the graph, the open interest for this weeks 280-puts is 0, for 280-calls 0 as well.
According to https://www.nasdaq.com/symbol/tsla/option-chain?dateindex=1
we have an open interest of 258 call-contracts and 1766 put-contracts for that strike for this week.

maximum-pain.com currently operates under the garbage-in-garbage-out-policy.

I wonder if nasdaq somehow limits them so they can't fetch the data anymore...?
 

Attachments

  • Bildschirmfoto 2018-08-01 um 20.34.17.jpg
    Bildschirmfoto 2018-08-01 um 20.34.17.jpg
    183 KB · Views: 45
  • Informative
Reactions: neroden
Here's a preliminary chart of Model 3 vs its class, using the InsideEVs estimate. It's prelim because aside from the obvious Tesla estimation, Mercedes does not seem to have reported yet (let me know if I'm wrong there) and I've only found a brand-wide July summary for BMW (down 0.3%). I've therefore got placeholders in for the 3-series and C-Class.

View attachment 322183
Apparently, Model 3 added 8k/month demand to this segment in July. Segment total jumps from around 21k to 29k in July. I would take this as evidence that the Model 3 is drawing customer from other segments, like the whole midsize sedan market competitors like Camry and Accord included.
 
I doubt $50,000 M3 sales is biting into Camry much. Camry average selling price is something like $24,000.

When the $35,000 version starts shipping it is probably going to impact sales of Camry and Accord.

Take out the tax rebate and gasoline savings, the $50,000 Model 3 is at the same price as the loaded Camry. But the car is MUCH better. Lots of people don't know this fact.
 
Apparently, Model 3 added 8k/month demand to this segment in July. Segment total jumps from around 21k to 29k in July. I would take this as evidence that the Model 3 is drawing customer from other segments, like the whole midsize sedan market competitors like Camry and Accord included.

It seems like the 3 reservations would have depressed vehicle sales prior to this point. Moving forward, new orders will indicate which segments lose sales to reduced lead time 3's...
 
Probably not much. I mean, the Camry really is in a lower price bracket.

I sort of suspect the Toyota Avalon is doomed, though.

I doubt $50,000 M3 sales is biting into Camry much. Camry average selling price is something like $24,000.

When the $35,000 version starts shipping it is probably going to impact sales of Camry and Accord.
Three years ago, I was a Camry driver who upgraded to a Model S. Had the Model 3 LR been available at the time, I would have upgraded a year earlier. In my view, Camry owners do not drive a $25k car because they can't afford more; they just don't see any other car worth paying more for. Then Tesla comes around. Camry drivers are value seekers, not swayed merely by sticker price. I also believe that for many the LR is a better value than the SR, well worth the price differential. So from my own personal experience, I think there is huge potential to convert Camry owners to Model 3, both LR and SR version.

Edit. Just spoke with a co-worker. He drives an Accord Coupe stick. He will be taking delivery of a M3P in Septemberish.
 
Last edited:
Status
Not open for further replies.