TSLA Market Action: 2018 Investor Roundtable

[theschnell]

To change the subject from Einhorn to Eisman, this most recent bottom (yes I'm risking calling a bottom before earnings. I think all bad news is already priced in) will from now on be known as the Eisman bottom.

It is very, very similar to the Spiegel bottom at around $180 when the Model X was already ramping in late 2016 and the market was giving them no credit for it whatsoever.

Prepare for liftoff.

Guys, you just don't understand how rare it is that I correctly predict short term price movements. It's why I no longer trade options. Just hold long and strong. So the above post from Tuesday night was pure luck, but I've hardly ever been this prescient, nor will I be again any time soon. Just had to gloat one last time on this...

 

[jelloslug]

Didn't read the whole thing, but amazing. Not sure how anyone who does a little research can come to all these conclusions. I stopped reading after it said they don't have anything proprietary. Feel bad for the people in that fund.

It got much worse from there. It was literally a list of every short thesis, conspiracy theory, disgruntled employee rant, and unsubstantiated lawsuit all rolled into one sad little letter on why he is hemorrhaging other people money.

 

[Dan Detweiler]

I think his position is currently fourth in line at the liquor store...

Bent over grabbing his ankles maybe? With a REALLY worried expression on his face. LOL!

Dan

 

[ZachShahan]

My thoughts are that M3 will have much higher demand in Europe than it will in the US - we prefer smaller cars here, my Model X is so gib that there's some streets I just won't drive down.

Model S is sort of hell to drive in Europe. I sometimes hated driving it there. The Model 3 is actually still a fairly big/wide car. But at least it's not the size of a Model S.

Well they do operate as a kickstarter,/startup CleanTechnica had an article a several weeks back that talked about this I can find it, maybe @ZachShahan can point me in the right direction?

Hmm, I can't think of the post. Can try scrolling through Tesla archives, but there are a lot. Tesla Archives | CleanTechnica

Or perhaps it was in Tesla Financials or Tesla Sales archives.

Tesla financials Archives | CleanTechnica

Tesla sales Archives | CleanTechnica

Regarding the stock, what's the explanation for this weird drop to $300 and then straight back up?

I don't follow much on Twitter — mostly just Elon & CleanTechnica But I'm curious what the shorts/critics are like there now. Any summary reports on that?

 

[Unpilot]

Yeah I bet he doesn't have that smug smirk on his face anymore like in his Twitter pic.

 

[T-Will]

https://www.valuewalk.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/06/Stanphyl-Capital-Letter-June-2018.pdf

Around this time he claimed that he "rolled" his short position to put leaps, plus some Aug puts (if I remember correctly).

Sorry, I just LOL'd (at that report).

 

[Opus BC fan]

TSLA been very very good to me today...

Let's do it again tomorrow and shoot for North of $400.

 

[jelloslug]

Sorry, I just LOL'd (at that report).

16 out of 18 pages were devoted to trying to explain on why he continues to lose money on shorting TSLA.

 

[neroden]

I suspect they did recently get a more acute understanding of the constraints on growth other than capital, but they haven’t yet come up against those constraints.

Actually, I think they're slamming headlong into organizational and training constraints. Based on the hour I spent on the phone this morning trying to get to the right person to get my car's service set up. The first contact point referred me to the wrong department even though I told them exactly who I needed to talk to. And worse, I'd called the right people and been shunted to the call center who sent me to the wrong people. The "service" call center is the WORST. Throwing money at it isn't going to train the people better.

Also Musk mentioned that Powerwall deployments are limited because it takes two years to train licensed electricians and there's a USA-wide shortage. So. Constraints.

I'm very curious about tomorrow's trading... but I'll miss it. I'm on vacation for a three-day weekend. I'll find out what happens on Monday.

 

[keydiver]

Regarding the stock, what's the explanation for this weird drop to $300 and then straight back up?

I think that was bad data. It showed up on my chart earlier, but it is gone now, so I think they fixed it.

 

[oneday]

It's worth posting again. Here's the chart showing what I believe was the previous largest climb in 1 day at 15.8% on January 14, 2014. Note that on that day, the stock also started below the 50 MA, just like today. It shot right up through it, like today. Very heavy volume, just like today. Note that the next day, it stayed above the upper BB and then ran along it for 5 more days, climbing another 12%. It then consolidated for a couple of weeks between the middle and the upper BB before REALLY climbing. Total gain by February 26 was 82%. I did trim some calls today because....well, we just had a 16% climb. Moving forward, I probably won't trim again until the shorts make me by demonstrating the stock has run out of steam. $365? Maybe higher? Keep in mind we have a 50/200 golden cross and MACD cross. We'll see.

Here's the chart from January 2014:

View attachment 322527

And here's our chart from today:

View attachment 322528

Not a chartist by any means. Looking at the picture the main difference I see is the shape of the B.B. not sure what it means but maybe someone here does?

 

[neroden]

No, usually after hours, TT07 being the exception apparently.

How fast your broker margin-calls you is basically based on how worried they are that they're going to lose money. They do NOT want to lose money. So gigantic massively-leveraged highly-concentrated accounts get called first, and they get around to all the only-slightly-overleveraged / we-can-sell-your-S&P-fund-to-cover-it guys after hours.

 

[bdy0627]

@bdy0627 May 9th, 2013 I think was the biggest one day gain at like 24%.

Thanks - I missed that one!

 

[neroden]

Fair enough. Not a terrible idea to start Semi production, @Bobfitz1. I just think starting something so major in drips and drabs - not ready to fulfill orders on demand - will do more to hurt their reputation and frustrate clients that want to ramp up. I agree with you that Tesla has done this on the past, and in doing so, has overcommited, missed deadlines.

The first Semis are explicitly for internal use. So that makes the dynamic different. If the dribs and drabs are *all* used internally, they show up as cost-cutting on Tesla's P&L statement. And the outside buyers aren't particularly frustrated, because *none* of them are getting Semis.

 

[neroden]

“We are not seeing a large amount of buy to covers yet, with such a large price move on the open most short sellers that are looking to cover are waiting for a retracement before placing buy-to-cover orders,” said Ihor Dusaniwsky, managing director, predictive analytics at S3. “They’ve already been bloodied on the open without the ability to get out of their positions at anywhere near yesterday’s market close so they are waiting to see if they can make back a few bucks before realizing their losses.”

Ohhh, if he's right... that's the most classic way to turn losses into larger losses in the stock market They're gonna get *burned*.

 

[neroden]

I still think >350 today, it keeps pushing towards it, dropping back, then running up again.

OK, remember two things: one, $350 is a psychological resistance level, two, around $360 (which is near the conversion price of the two largest blocks of convertible bonds) I believe there is weird arbitrage / rehedging stuff going on related to the convertibles (which I do not understand), so it should act as resistance too.

 

[ZachShahan]

... which I do not understand...

Holy cow — if neroden doesn't understand it, WHO DOES?

 

[neroden]

Holy cow — if neroden doesn't understand it, WHO DOES?

The people at "convertible bond desks", I suppose. It's considered a highly esoteric area of trading, and I probably could figure it out, but I haven't.

 

[kbM3]

I


I disagree. To fanboys like us, the engineering is cool. But to the financial sceptics, it's all about how many you produce, and the profit (you make zero money during downtime). Those people don't care how - use a million hamsters to build them, who cares, or even assembly manually instead of dreadnaught - just ramp production. This isn't me making this up: Elon himself is saying they are focused on profit for the immediate future.

‘The best way to profits is to hit the 6k target very quickly. Not a steady state 5k.

[

 

[anticitizen13.7]

Dang it, I hate the fact that schadenfreude makes me feel good Makes me feel like a bad person. But reading that thread .... yeah















On the other hand:

The r/wallstreetbets crowd (mostly retail investors) had a lot of advance notice, so I do not feel too bad for them.

Elon warned on June 17th: "They have about three weeks before their short position explodes" - Elon Musk on Twitter

He's about 3 weeks late on that prediction, but this is par for the course for anyone researching Tesla with any sort of diligence. If the retail shorts haven't been covering today, they may be in for a lot of hurt over the next few trading sessions.