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TSLA Market Action: 2018 Investor Roundtable

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i seriously dont get why people get all up in arms about his enthusiasm. If someone, a new investor, is THAT naive that they blindly follow his lead and bet their entire savings without ANY research, then, well...a fool and his money are soon parted.

Agreed. I do my own research, but for entertainment purposes and also for sheer power of positivity, I do appreciate his optimism. I've been monitoring and noticed he had huge losses as well.
 
i seriously dont get why people get all up in arms about his enthusiasm. If someone, a new investor, is THAT naive that they blindly follow his lead and bet their entire savings without ANY research, then, well...a fool and his money are soon parted.
It's pointless noise which should have no place on a rational discussion forum. Unfortunately some people early on were fooled and thought he knew something, and new people who don't know better may also be fooled. It needs to be pointed out every time it shows up, just as ridiculous short arguments are.
 
More 10Q highlights from the bears:
  • Model 3 achieved a gross profit only when "excluding non-cash items" like depreciation (8K, "Cash Flow and Liquidity")
  • Tesla is not ramping the solar roof production (page 32).
  • Tesla acknowledged inquiries by the SEC, the first time they've done so (page 30).
  • Tesla significantly added to the risk disclosure around service and logistics (page 48).
  • Tesla did NOT adjust prior year revenues with the automotive lease accounting change, which has the effect of making revenue growth look larger than it is (page 8).
  • Credit agreement now up 0.49B, from 1.1B to 1.598B in 2018. Total debt up 747M YTD (page 24).
  • Tesla expects tax credits in US, Canada, Denmark, Hong Kong and Germany to diminish over next 12 months (page 54).
Lastly, Tesla will need 1.8B in cash by 12/31. They have 2.2B now. Here are the major liability buckets:
  • 82.5mm - Related party notes (Aug)
  • 230mm - 2.75% converts (Nov)
  • 185mm - Solar City term loan (Dec)
  • 920mm - 0.25% converts (Mar 2019, but need cash by 12/31 under ABL)
  • 400mm - Required 12/31 cash cushion under ABL
 
July 2018 YTD U.S. Passenger Car Sales Rankings - Best-Selling Cars In America -

Zach called it first, but this is cool to see.

Not only is it striking to see Tesla Model 3 in the top seven, but major players ahead of it are suffering massive declines in sales. Civic and Altima are down 28%, Camry down 22%, Accord down 19%, and Corolla down 6%. Only Sentra saw a modest gain of 3.4%. Together these top six models saw a shortfall of 31,104 vehicles, -18.2% down to 139,680 in July, while the Model 3 picked up 14,250.

For reference the top 100 had a shortfall of 71,153, -15.7%, 452,193 in July 2017 down to 381,040 in July 2018. There are some serious headwinds for US car sales, but the Model 3 is one of the few models bucking that trend.
 
I think this is a key quote:

The PIF, which has more than $250bn in assets, initially approached Tesla and chief executive Elon Musk to express interest in purchasing newly issued shares in the company.

However, Tesla did not act on the interest, one person informed on the matter said. Instead, the Saudi state fund acquired the position in secondary markets with the help of JPMorgan. Mr Musk and Tesla are aware of the PIF shareholding, this person said.
[...]
Saudi Arabia’s investment appeared to confirm Mr Musk’s claim last week that “we certainly could raise money”. However, the Tesla boss also said it would be “better discipline” not to sell more shares. He is trying to prove to Wall Street that Tesla finally, after 15 years, has a financially sustainable business.
This obliterates the shorts' contention that Tesla didn't raise capital because they didn't have access to it.

Edit: Spiegel's explanation:

"It could be that image-wise Musk didn't want to be seen as taking oil money."
 
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More 10Q highlights from the bears:
  • Model 3 achieved a gross profit only when "excluding non-cash items" like depreciation (8K, "Cash Flow and Liquidity")
  • Tesla is not ramping the solar roof production (page 32).
  • Tesla acknowledged inquiries by the SEC, the first time they've done so (page 30).
  • Tesla significantly added to the risk disclosure around service and logistics (page 48).
  • Tesla did NOT adjust prior year revenues with the automotive lease accounting change, which has the effect of making revenue growth look larger than it is (page 8).
  • Credit agreement now up 0.49B, from 1.1B to 1.598B in 2018. Total debt up 747M YTD (page 24).
  • Tesla expects tax credits in US, Canada, Denmark, Hong Kong and Germany to diminish over next 12 months (page 54).
Lastly, Tesla will need 1.8B in cash by 12/31. They have 2.2B now. Here are the major liability buckets:
  • 82.5mm - Related party notes (Aug)
  • 230mm - 2.75% converts (Nov)
  • 185mm - Solar City term loan (Dec)
  • 920mm - 0.25% converts (Mar 2019, but need cash by 12/31 under ABL)
  • 400mm - Required 12/31 cash cushion under ABL
Thanks. This is helpful. It actually confirms my optimism. All this is quite manageable.
 
Screenshot 2018-08-07 at 18.27.11.png
 
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