TSLA Market Action: 2018 Investor Roundtable

[MarcusMaximus]

I think that's probably right but it depends on who else decides to join the party ("last chance to buy TSLA before it goes private") and also depends on timing. Shorts seem not to be very concerned yet and that could come back to bite them if they all try to head for the exits at the same time.

Also, the 50% number for institutional investors selling could turn out to be too high. Existing investors could decide to buy more shares before it goes private (I did ). Or option holders could decide to convert to shares so they could own TSLA as a private company.

All sorts of awkward, uncomfortable scenarios for our short-selling "friends."

There’s also the fact that shares have to actually be held in order to be voted with. Even for the institutional investors that would need to exit such a deal, presumably they’d want to have a say in what the deal is(including possibly voting against it). If a vote is announced and everyone suddenly recalls their shares to vote with, that could make problems for shorts immediately.

 

[mongo]

Well, this can't be a good sign. Reuters is reporting that Musk still has not divulged to his own Board of Directors who is providing the 'secured' funding:

"While Tesla’s board has held multiple discussions about the proposal, it has not yet received a detailed financing plan from Musk, nor specific information on who will provide the funding, one of the sources said."

I can't think of an innocent explanation for this, unless Reuters' source is just wrong.

Exclusive: Tesla's board seeking more information on Musk's...

For sure Reuters isn't perfect, but I would be cautious about dismissing their work as simple FUD.

Ummm... from this article I'm gonna go FUD or bad...

While Tesla’s board has held multiple discussions about the proposal, it has not yet received a detailed financing plan from Musk, nor specific information on who will provide the funding, one of the sources said.

A paragraph later (plus an ad)

In a statement on Wednesday, Tesla’s board said its discussion with Musk “addressed the funding” for the deal, without offering more details.

The exact information that Musk communicated to the board about his plan could not be learned.

 

[Sudre]

If 20+M shares needs to be covered and they only have a couple of days to do it, how high do you think the price will get?

A few months ago I mathed that out to around $1253 give or take...lol
Yes that was crazy math with a bit of wibble-wobble thrown in. Hopefully it turns out to have a bit more wibble than wobble.

 

[phil0909]

Oh it’s fud all right. No difference between them/ media or spiegel.

Really? You think they lie or recklessly source bad information, in the normal course of their business?

I'm quite skeptical of news media myself, but I guess I give the major news organizations a little more credit than you do.

 

[Krugerrand]

TSLA was the first foreign "Car Mfg" that secured Chinese approval to own 100% of their own "car factory" in China.

Something people claimed couldn’t be done. And yet...

Bad idea for anyone thinking Elon/Tesla can’t do this or that. No need to name names, you’ve already posted it on the Internet for forever.

 

[Ratanpara]

Few months ago short sellers FUD was saying Tesla will not be able raise few billions and go bankrupt, there you have it now they in process of raising about 30 billions.

 

[Menifeer]

Amazing!

Dozens of pages with nary a mention of the M3 ramp...

 

[EinSV]

@ggr can you elaborate on why you think the funds that want out will wait until they get $420 (or more)? If that's the case, who do you think is selling on days like today?

 

[bobinfla]

Amazing!

Dozens of pages with nary a mention of the M3 ramp...

Oh that's right, they're still making cars. I forgot about that

 

[PaulusdB]

Well stated. And that's how actor Christopher Walken is often described as he essentially plays himself in his movies.

Chazz Palminteri as Outspoken Tesla Short Seller
Christopher Walken as Elon Musk

Warning: Some Crude Language
...

You forgot the German subtitles, C.

 

[Sudre]

Well, this can't be a good sign. Reuters is reporting that Musk still has not divulged to his own Board of Directors who is providing the 'secured' funding:

"While Tesla’s board has held multiple discussions about the proposal, it has not yet received a detailed financing plan from Musk, nor specific information on who will provide the funding, one of the sources said."

I can't think of an innocent explanation for this, unless Reuters' source is just wrong.

Exclusive: Tesla's board seeking more information on Musk's...

The source is either a board member and their arn't many of those and Elon now knows who to get rid of as soon as all this dust clears OR the source is Tripp.

How many people do you think are in the room when Elon and the board discus his financials?
300 or maybe less than 10.

 

[Curt Renz]

Amazing!

Dozens of pages with nary a mention of the M3 ramp...

Those mentions should be found in the general thread, not the market action thread.

 

[ggr]

Really? You think they lie or recklessly source bad information, in the normal course of their business?

I'm quite skeptical of news media myself, but I guess I give the major news organizations a little more credit than you do.

The reporters don't go to jail when they lie... in fact in some organizations they get promoted. And yet they accuse Elon of lying all the time.

 

[Mycroft]

One huge positive out of all this. We may soon never have to hear the phrase "short squeeze" again!

 

[Ratanpara]

With Tesla what Elon says must be implemented, board members are there because public companies required to have them.

 

[phil0909]

The reporters don't go to jail when they lie... in fact in some organizations they get promoted. And yet they accuse Elon of lying all the time.

Really? When did that ever happen? Was it a Reuters reporter? New York Times?

 

[phil0909]

The source is either a board member and their arn't many of those and Elon now knows who to get rid of as soon as all this dust clears OR the source is Tripp.

How many people do you think are in the room when Elon and the board discus his financials?
300 or maybe less than 10.

I'm not sure why the number of likely sources is important. Isn't the main issue here whether the source's information as reported is true or false?

 

[PaulusdB]

One huge positive out of all this. We may soon never have to hear the phrase "short squeeze" again!

It’ll come up in your grand children’s speech when they graduate from University.

 

[ggr]

@ggr can you elaborate on why you think the funds that want out will wait until they get $420 (or more)? If that's the case, who do you think is selling on days like today?

There is a sense in which I really don't understand your question. They already hold Tesla stock, for reasons they believed at the time. Why would they sell it other than in the normal course of rebalancing? (By that I mean that particular funds might have guidelines like "No more than 5% in any one stock", and Tesla might have appreciated by 15% after the Q2 conference call, and might now be at 5.5% of the dollars in the fund, so sometime between now and the end of the quarter they have to sell that 0.5%.) Now, nothing about what's happened in the last couple of days implies that Tesla's actual production/profit/market has changed in any negative way (unless you believe the crap about Elon going to jail for lying, which I don't). And with an offer to sell it for $420 in a month or three, it would be very irresponsible for them to sell for $352.45 today. Who is selling? Shorts and panicking weak longs. IMHO.

 

[ZachShahan]

Mmm I'd rather people stop telling shorts to get out now. I have a 4 digit sell order to fulfill and I feel a short squeeze would be more likely and higher if they all got out in as little a time frame as possible.

In all honesty, any guesses on how high the price could go on an epic squeeze?

I'm planning to keep most of my money in private Tesla, but if it jacks up to $2000 or even $1000, I might be tempted to sell.