TSLA Market Action: 2018 Investor Roundtable

[BrianZ]

Just speculating here.

I feel Elon's pedo tweet might be an intentional move on his part to make the market believe he is unhinged. This is a setup for this privatization plan to make Wall Street (and the shorts) think he's unhinged with this move, and all the FUD on he's going to jail for lying and everything.

By making shorts think he's unhinged and lying about privatization, he is able to get them to depress the stock price well below $420. It also lays a beautiful trap to get shorts to short some more, thinking he's bluffing and about to go to jail.

Elon is a genius. He is several steps ahead. I'm sure he has more cards yet to show that'll reveal the final checkmate to the shorts. I feel all his previous actions all stem towards this moment here. Not only superbly logical financial moves, but brilliantly manipulate the psychology of his enemies. Don't underestimate the large effects of taking advantage of human psychology in a war.

 

[Artful Dodger]

Explan to us why a share of common stock is worth more than $420 at this time.

The simplywall.st website calculates the intrinsic value of every stock on NASDAQ each night, based on estimated 5-year discounted cash flows. Their number on Aug 3rd, after the Q2 ER, but before Elon's tweet, was $443 per share. Unchanged today. It was $421 before the Q2 ER.

See attached graphic (which will also point you to the site)

 

[anticitizen13.7]

Just speculating here.

I feel Elon's pedo tweet might be an intentional move on his part to make the market believe he is unhinged. This is a setup for this privatization plan to make Wall Street (and the shorts) think he's unhinged with this move, and all the FUD on he's going to jail for lying and everything.

My belief is that Elon (1) isn't that manipulative, and (2) knows that stock prices can be difficult if not impossible to manage like this.

Elon usually appears to say crazy things, like wanting to start a tunneling company or sell flamethrowers, but it turns out later that what he said, was what he meant at face value. I really don't think he is trying to play some tricks here.

 

[Foghat]

I think he is just having fun with the defcon conference going on right now in Vegas, tweeting them in “hackerspeak”

He’s headhunting for the elusive purple squirrel.

 

[Thekiwi]

Explan to us why a share of common stock is worth more than $420 at this time. Certain many of this would like to believe it is so, but the market has never countenanced a price that high.

I am inclined to believe that a private share would be worth more than $500, but not a common share. These are two distinct vehicles for holding equity. So the point of the transaction is to transform common shares into higher value private shares.

So what actually makes a common share worth more than $420?

BTW, I'm not trying to be aggressive here. I'm not taking offense. Rather I am speaking from a place of frustration. I actually believe Tesla is substantially more valuable than what the market is willing to give it credit. I am tired of the endless FUD campaign misinforming the market for years. We live in a new social media world that has harnessed very powerful disinformation techniques to manufacture negative sentiment. This is why a common share is worth substantially less than a private share. In a information abundant world disinformation can become more powerful than true information. So I'm very frustrated that it has come to this. But I think that as a private company Tesla will be able execute better and continue to build a very strong rapport with consumers. And this is why a private share is worth more than a common share.

Thanks for the reply. Management has stated they expect ~1 million vehicles selling at 25% GM within several years generating well over $12 Billion in Margin (that doesn’t include Energy or services margin), implying EBIT in the mid to high single billions, with significant ongoing growth.

I think common sense would indicate fInancials like that would lead to a market valuation well north of $100 Billion.

In my relatively short decade of investment experience - my biggest wins have come from investing in companies that I believed were obviously worth more than either previous ATH or Analyst price targets indicated. The 3 biggest examples from my porltfolio are Apple, Yahoo & early Tesla. I would argue on all 3 occasions where I invested before big increases in the share prices, that management would not have accepted an offer that was barely above previous ATH and Analyst price targets - I would have thought they would have maintained there positive outlook on where the companies were heading and reccomended shareholders not sell for a relatively low price.

Here’s another way to look at the current situation - if it was another group (Not involving Musk) offering $420 for Telsa - does anyone seriously think Musk and the board would be advising shareholders to take the offer?

 

[mongo]

Here’s another way to look at the current situation - if it was another group (Not involving Musk) offering $420 for Telsa - does anyone seriously think Musk and the board would be advising shareholders to take the offer?

But that is not the current situation for those that can covert to TSLAP. Only those unable or unwilling to convert are impacted by the buy out price.

 

[Sudre]

If there’s anyone still interested in the underlying manufacturing business, Second Measure has some new data out.

Waitlist drives demand for Tesla's Model 3

None of that is new data. It is regurgitated data and a waste of a read. The links are to CNBC and their own other posts.

 

[wipster]

Seriously?

@elonmusk: Short shorts coming soon to Tesla merch

m.twitter.com/elonmusk

 

[ggies07]

Seriously?

@elonmusk: Short shorts coming soon to Tesla merch

m.twitter.com/elonmusk

Hahaha. Elon is a cheeky monkey.

Can you imagine a whole bunch of guys wearing short shorts just to make a statement about how long term investors are right?

 

[ZachShahan]

My accountant advised me to create a corp. Basically becoming an Institutional investor myself... It's a complicated tax structure.

Right now, I wish I am an EU citizen somewhere where capital gains tax is 0. Maybe I should cozy up to that Slovenial girl even more.

*Slovenian
(In case that helps your chances.)

 

[wipster]

Hahaha. Elon is a cheeky monkey.

Can you imagine a whole bunch of guys wearing short shorts just to make a statement about how long term investors are right?

I wonder if somebody hacked his account after the earlier cryptic tweet and now this...

 

[Thekiwi]

But that is not the current situation for those that can covert to TSLAP. Only those unable or unwilling to convert are impacted by the buy out price.

So then using that argument you are saying the price of the buyout is completely irrelevant? It could be $350, $400 or $450 - it makes no difference and the board should just approve any figure because it doesn’t matter?

I don’t think that is correct, the board must consider those unable to convert get the best price possible.

 

[mickificki]

 

[mickificki]

 

[dmckinstry]

So then using that argument you are saying the price of the buyout is completely irrelevant? It could be $350, $400 or $450 - it makes no difference and the board should just approve any figure because it doesn’t matter?

I don’t think that is correct, the board must consider those unable to convert get the best price possible.

OTOH. the smaller that number of shareholders (and shares) the larger the SP offered can be without adversely affecting the deal.

 

[oneday]

I think my previous predictions might be right. TSLA Market Action: 2018 Investor Roundtable

I’ve said this before and I think it bears repeating. The short burn cannot happen until all the not-a-flamethrowers are delivered. Coincidentally, I was just invited to a SF delivery event on 8/25. So this is indeed good news.

Off topic: I think I should really get on my business idea of selling Tesla branded shorts. The delivery event would be a perfect opportunity for some marketing. I just need a good business name. Who wears short shorts?

Only difference, Tesla is going to have the short shorts business.

 

[UnknownSoldier]

I wish Elon would send me free clothes

 

[Curt Renz]

Seriously?

@elonmusk: Short shorts coming soon to Tesla merch

m.twitter.com/elonmusk

 

[mongo]

So then using that argument you are saying the price of the buyout is completely irrelevant? It could be $350, $400 or $450 - it makes no difference and the board should just approve any figure because it doesn’t matter?

I don’t think that is correct, the board must consider those unable to convert get the best price possible.

I agree the price matters to those planning to hold TSLA long term and no longer can. However, your hypothetical of another group buying everyone out is not accurate, at least as written, since the board would not be telling people to take the 420. Elon's hope is that all shareholders can convert over.

 

[ZeApelido]

View attachment 324840

@FirebirdAlpha @mmd @Reality @YasB @MattEnth

This guy is unstable! Clearly you should quadruple your short position if you're seeking alpha.