TSLA Market Action: 2018 Investor Roundtable

[Toolsmack]

This last tweet is going to be very easy to spin as Elon saying if he doesn’t work like this Tesla could go bankrupt, because when I read it that is the gut reaction I had. I’m expecting another hit down unless something else comes out before market open that is more newsworthy

 

[gringotuanis]

Why is that?

...Because he mentioned bankruptcy and the market is already spooked by the NYT article. One should not assume the market is as calm as those with knowledge/on this forum. Who knows if it will rise or drop tomorrow (it did correct alot already on Friday)..but it's good to acknowledge the possible effect of Musk forcing himself to stay up late and using that choice of words.

 

[defc0n]

- model 3 production is high
- the product has rave reviews
- short interest has decreased
- a potential offer for $420 is on the table
- stock price has decreased

Strange times we live in. I’m now of the opinion that a lot of people don’t want to own shares in a private company (more than what many here tend to believe), and any negativity or downward movement of the stock price caused those people to go ahead and bail. Chart technicals didn’t help when it looked like another peak around it’s all time high.

I last got out if my positions around 345 and got back in at 313, I’ll be worried if it gets below 297 or so. Still very hopeful for the medium term.

 

[gringotuanis]

This last tweet is going to be very easy to spin as Elon saying if he doesn’t work like this Tesla could go bankrupt, because when I read it that is the gut reaction I had. I’m expecting another hit down unless something else comes out before market open that is more newsworthy

Very well said. This is how most ppl will read it unless in denial. I don't like that he seems to think Tesla will go bankrupt if he doesn't work long hours, but Musk does tend to exaggerate (posture as another post said). My own side business is profitable because it's profitable, and I don't work until midnight. Making cars is tough.

 

[elasalle]

...Because he mentioned bankruptcy and the market is already spooked by the NYT article. One should not assume the market is as calm as those with knowledge/on this forum. Who knows if it will rise or drop tomorrow (it did correct alot already on Friday)..but it's good to acknowledge the possible effect of Musk forcing himself to stay up late and using that choice of words.

Let's not forget that on CC he mentioned that TSLA will be cash flow positive in Q3/Q4.

Also mentioned in the past is that he doesn't like to live in an ivory tower, so him putting long hours is to lead by example.
.... Yes it is true, TSLA needs to be running 24/7 to try to hit the 6K/wk target.

 

[gringotuanis]

- model 3 production is high
- the product has rave reviews
- short interest has decreased
- a potential offer for $420 is on the table
- stock price has decreased

Strange times we live in. I’m now of the opinion that a lot of people don’t want to own shares in a private company (more than what many here tend to believe), and any negativity or downward movement of the stock price caused those people to go ahead and bail. Chart technicals didn’t help when it looked like another peak around it’s all time high.

I last got out if my positions around 345 and got back in at 313, I’ll be worried if it gets below 297 or so. Still very hopeful for the medium term.

My question is why would anyone want to hold private? It limits what you can do with your accounts. And what hasn't been mentioned near enough is why do companies have to disclose so much? It's because in the 1920s and 1930s and prior, companies were not transparent and lied to investors all the time until the SEC came into the world. Heck, companies still lie. The onky downside I can see is the extra accounting work and focus on short term goals for quarter to quarter. It was good to hear Trump say yesterday they're looking at every 6 month required reporting. This would be better for companies. I just don't see a great reason to go private, it will be much harder for us.to get info, and harder to trade. The shorts will naturally flush out if Tesla becomes hugely successful. I guess you'd avoid the media FUD and short attacks...but that's about it.

 

[dc_h]

This cat and I are just feeling upside down about the current state of affairs. Will be my avatar until Tesla goes private and the world rights itself.

Arianna Huffington is right.

if Ariana write to a single mother to optimize her work hours, instead of working 2 or 3 jobs to put a child through college, I think people would be outraged. If she tells a billionaire who’s saving his baby, it’s right or well intentioned?
Long term he needs to normalize his hours, but that will always be different to him than normal people. The average CEO probably works at least 60 hours and many do more. I think he needs the challenges, but hope Tesla smooths out going forward and his passionate problem solving moves to SpaceX. But I do hope he stays engaged at Tesla, but more focused on longer term design and reinventing the manufacturing processes.

 

[Ratanpara]

Market could do whatever it’s want with stock in short run, but amount of hard work at Tesla by not Just Elon but entire Tesla team is mind boggling ,it will pay off bigly in long run.

 

[loky]

I really like Еlon`s tweets.
Мy translation to my mother language and back:

Ford & Tesla are the only 2 American car companies to avoid bankruptcy (Wonder way?). I just got home from the factory (I know it`s really late). You think this is an option (We really must keep to our schedule). It is not (For the next six weeks).

 

[hellnoICE]

Even UBS doesn't know. I think you are taking these reports seriously. These are not meant to be seriously researched accurate reports. No one outside of Tesla are in a good position to do accurate tear down cost analysis. That goes to UBS or Munro or the German's analysis.

Read these reports for entertainment value and move on.

I'm looking at the UBS analyst report b/c I think it is BS and trying to take apart their argument.

 

[bdy0627]

9,000 VINs registered in the last 24 hours:

Yes! I know this has been mentioned before, but can we say it again now - it's happening! Tesla IS actually sustainably mass producing the model 3. All the speculation we are hearing from the media is a circus sideshow.

 

[bdy0627]

The simple answer to all this in my opinion is that if the deal appears to be real/going thru, through stock will rise toward the set price of the deal. So, the reason it's so low is the market doesn't believe it's imminent or even close to happening. All the rest is too unknown to discuss. Any positive news of a deal going thru will increase the stock price. Long tsla via stock and options.

I would add, not only does the market not believe a buyout is close to happening, but due to the media speculation, it appears to actually believe that Elon and Tesla are in a very serious crisis right now.

 

[bdy0627]

If the model 3 ramp quickly and quietly proceeds to sustaining 6,000+ per week, and there are some indications it is doing just that, Q3 ER is going to be quite interesting, especially if the stock somehow stays down leading up to it. Deliveries announcement in early October would spill the beans.

 

[bdy0627]

...Because he mentioned bankruptcy and the market is already spooked by the NYT article. One should not assume the market is as calm as those with knowledge/on this forum. Who knows if it will rise or drop tomorrow (it did correct alot already on Friday)..but it's good to acknowledge the possible effect of Musk forcing himself to stay up late and using that choice of words.

If that is something that causes the stock to slide, which is possible, then it presents a very compelling opportunity for others.

 

[Opus BC fan]

This cat and I are just feeling upside down about the current state of affairs. Will be my avatar until Tesla goes private and the world rights itself.

I've always liked this...Especially when the trolls appear.

 

[mongo]

This last tweet is going to be very easy to spin as Elon saying if he doesn’t work like this Tesla could go bankrupt, because when I read it that is the gut reaction I had. I’m expecting another hit down unless something else comes out before market open that is more newsworthy

It very well might. Consider how Tesla got to 5k 3s per week. Doug Field went on leave, GA4 built in a month, 5k achieved.
Elon gets things done that others don't. Either they hire others willing to work that hard, or he'll have to keep being the one working that hard.
(Not that I think help would stop him, he likely can't rest while there are things to get done.)

 

[Ihateshorts]

My thoughts- different

Did you ever think about that Elon Musk deliberately gave a bad interview
to follow specific plan? HIS MASTERPLAN!?

Perhaps he would like to see short-term falling prices to allow the Saudi Arabian fund and other anchor shareholders once again cheap prices before the privatization takes place.

Sorry, but we all know that Elon Musk is not a fool, right? I've never heard him say before in public that the shorts can destroy his Tesla. You do not tell something like that in public, without having an exact plan in mind!

 

[wipster]

If the model 3 ramp quickly and quietly proceeds to sustaining 6,000+ per week, and there are some indications it is doing just that, Q3 ER is going to be quite interesting, especially if the stock somehow stays down leading up to it. Deliveries announcement in early October would spill the beans.

And there bty you hit the nail on the head: now that production is hitting it's stride, Tesla needs to demonstrate that sales are driving that production and deliveries are following suit. For S and X, I've always understood that they were made to order not to inventory, unlike every other major auto manufacturer. Tesla needs to show that the same is true for the M3. There's a lot of FUD going around purporting that's not the case, that there's a glut of unsold RWD cars sitting on lots and it needs to be shown that is not the case! Additionally, they need to make sure that orders for the M3 stay at record levels during the worst time I've seen for FUD and dissing Elon. The holidays are going to help plus the excellent reviews and test drives, but the electric rubber needs to be hitting the road beneath new drivers and Tesla enthusiasts, each one a virtual advertisement for Tesla.

It has to shown that for Teslas, sales drive production, not the other way around. That's the way to demonstrate to the public in general and WS that the Tesla model is the way of not only the future but also the present.

 

[aubreymcfato]

In the last days, I spoke with several friends about Tesla: 2 of them directly approached me to ask me how to buy stock, and another one (already a small shareholder), wanted to buy more.
This is the tiniest of data points, but I think the TSLAP discussion in really "pushing" a lot of people (who maybe have never bought any stock in their life, as my 2 friends) to buy Tesla.
FOMO is a powerful force (did you see the Bitcoin rise last year?), and we may be see some of that in the future. If Musk really delivers, allowing normal and foreign retail investors to be in, I think we'll see many new Tesla shareholders:
I just can't say if they will be able to move the needle, as I think many of them will buy just "symbolic" amounts of shares.

 

[anticitizen13.7]

if Ariana write to a single mother to optimize her work hours, instead of working 2 or 3 jobs to put a child through college, I think people would be outraged. If she tells a billionaire who’s saving his baby, it’s right or well intentioned?
Long term he needs to normalize his hours, but that will always be different to him than normal people. The average CEO probably works at least 60 hours and many do more. I think he needs the challenges, but hope Tesla smooths out going forward and his passionate problem solving moves to SpaceX. But I do hope he stays engaged at Tesla, but more focused on longer term design and reinventing the manufacturing processes.

It’s my observation that the average person has no idea how much a CEO of a corporation or a small business owner works.

Indra Nooyi, who recently retired from a successful tenure as CEO of PepsiCo, was very open about the personal toll the job took on her life:

Why PepsiCo CEO Indra K. Nooyi Can't Have It All - The Atlantic

“Being a CEO for a company is three full time jobs rolled into one. How can you do justice to all? You can't.”

She said that her family relationships suffered from the long work days and constant travel. Her children felt neglected. Her husband said he was at the bottom of the priorities list. Her traditional mother frowned on her perceived lack of attention to home duties.

If Mrs. Nooyi had it that difficult, running an established company like PepsiCo, how much harder has it been for Elon, who has been building a mass manufacturing operation of an extremely complicated product, from scratch?