TSLA Market Action: 2018 Investor Roundtable

[neroden]

I agree, I’m getting fatigued from all the attention going towards the NYT, which is irrelevant to Tesla’s production ramp. It appears Tesla is firing on all cylinders

Warning, ICE metaphor. Don't use it. Tesla is... fully charged? Spinning at top RPM? Delivering full power?

and Inside EV #s will likely surpass everything Tesla has ever produced in September. I think Inside EV numbers will come out within 10-12 days.

 

[winfield100]

got 10 @ $288.87
08/20/2018 Buy Trade Details TSLA
TESLA INC
10 $288.87
i need for TSLA to become TSLAP so my grandkids can inherit and use the shares to pay for rides on the BFR to become colonists

 

[Fact Checking]

New No, no, down dang you! Come on, hit $288, you can do it!

Yeah, intraday low so far was $288.20.

BTW., you didn't specify order size when you asked our opinion - maybe your 10 million shares BUY LIMIT order at $288.00 scared them off?

BTW., there was a big drop on NASDAQ, which might eventually put some more drag on TSLA as well.

 

[EVNow]

Just imagine - how many analysts there are and how many of them can downgrade. Until Musk submits the plan there is no real support price now.

 

[neroden]

Times is at it again with a “Timeline”

https://www.nytimes.com/2018/08/18/business/elon-musk-tesla-timeline.html

They include everything sensational and leave out Q2 results and other great recent news.

Is this the NYT Business section or TMZ?

What's the difference?

 

[neroden]

Public transportation isn't sustainable. It currently requires fossil fuels, which will run out.

OK, if you've ever taken an electric train or subway train (and you probably have! You're in Norway!) you wouldn't say that.

 

[Matias]

I have to say, unless TSLA recovers to 320-340 region soon (as in the next few weeks) I'll be mostly wiped out (already lost 20% last Friday with options spreads expiring fully ITM that previously were OTM). Will still have some call spreads going forward, but I'd be demolished as I didn't imagine we could see such carnage in share price following a plan to go private.

I’m sorry to hear that. But I want to say, that I have several times warned people taking too much risks. Of course anything can still turn out fine.

 

[Dan Detweiler]

And this is only reported in Teslarati or Electrek. The other MSM completely ignores this development

Of course, that is my point and why we need to drop this bomb everywhere we can.

Dan

 

[Fact Checking]

I think we're going to have 50-55K deliveries in Q3 exactly as predicted.

Tesla's Q3 guidance was the following in the Q2 report:

"Expecting to produce 50 - 55k Model 3s in Q3; deliveries should exceed that"​

Also, 'Q3 deliveries higher than Q3 production' suggests that the last week of Q3 will have to have a lower production rate than the ~5,000/week going into Q3.

So something's still off - they are clearly better right now.

My theory is: either they are setting up for a positive surprise in Q3, or are expecting a shutdown near end of Q3.

 

[Drax7]

These are the facts I am working with as I see them.

Elon is hyper paranoid and wants q3 to be perfect, hence working at full plaid.
On aug 15 his mental state appears totally normal and calm.
Production approaching 6000 per week and advancing.
Reiterates no regrets about going private.

All that against a vicious press looking to exploit any
Vulnerability and pushing a false narrative.

In light of the above I bought some, would not be surprised
If we close higher on the day.

 

[aubreymcfato]

Unless of course they are prohibited/hindered from buying on the open market due to being in negotions about part-taking in the go private deal.

Enjoy Tuscany!

@Lycanthrope were you near Florence (via Bolognese) on the 16th? I might have seen you on a Model S ;-)

 

[neroden]

Transportation based on cars leads to sprawling and space inefficient cities, all of which leads to an inefficient use of resources with poor effects on the local and global environment.

But surely you understand that public transportation -- mass transportation -- is not feasible in rural areas. I happen to live in a rural area. Electric cars are needed to get around the countryside and from the countryside to the city. Surely you agree?

 

[EVNow]

Public transportation isn't sustainable. It currently requires fossil fuels, which will run out. To even entertain the notion of sustainability, we first need to kick our addiciton to oil. And globally, Tesla is the company that's doing the most to make that a reality.

Public transportation doesn’t require fossil fuels. Just as cars don’t. A lot more of public transport is already electric compared to cars globally, BTW.

 

[neroden]

I am surprised Elon still needs to maintain 120 hour week schedule given that
Operational situation is under control and production is approaching
6000 model 3s per week.

It could also imply he wants to improve production further and moreover
That he wants to achieve profitability in the quarter beyond any reasonable
Doubt. He is in the Only the paranoid survive mode.

If you go over to the Model 3 Delivery forum,... I think Musk is troubleshooting the paint quality and delivery logistics problems right now.

 

[Ratanpara]

Day is still young, but If Tesla is able to close above opening price of 291.70, it would be a first sign of technical stability, I have seen this film over last 5 years of holding Tesla many time, this is the first time I have seen Tesla so disconnected from fundamentals.

 

[neroden]

What has me worried is could this be a perfect storm created by Big Oil to kill Tesla more effectively than anything else?

Saudis court Elon for a while, he refuses, they then gobble up shares running up the stock price somewhat as well. Then they manage to convince Elon enough that Elon goes public with a go private announcement, soon after Saudis start dumping their purchased shares running the shareprice down and instead go for Lucid and leave Elon hanging destroying his credibility and as Elon = Tesla pretty much they get what they wanted.

Sounds nuts, but hell, same way it sounds nuts to have TSLA at 360-390 and drop to 280 in 1.5 weeks...

I have to say, unless TSLA recovers to 320-340 region soon (as in the next few weeks) I'll be mostly wiped out (already lost 20% last Friday with options spreads expiring fully ITM that previously were OTM). Will still have some call spreads going forward, but I'd be demolished as I didn't imagine we could see such carnage in share price following a plan to go private.

That's too bad. I'm still set up so I can survive pretty much any stock price move (though I might have to shuffle some shares between accounts to maintain my margin capacity supporting my short puts).

 

[sundaymorning]

I am surprised Elon still needs to maintain 120 hour week schedule given that
Operational situation is under control and production is approaching
6000 model 3s per week.

It could also imply he wants to improve production further and moreover
That he wants to achieve profitability in the quarter beyond any reasonable
Doubt. He is in the Only the paranoid survive mode.

My guess is that he made his long hours comment public so that the Tesla Team can see that he is with them all the way. This is a motivation for the team to hit the 6k target in the coming week(s). It’s a message that imo will prove to be more prudent than any email he could have sent to his employees commending their hard work. It gives a sense of urgency that all hands need to be on deck. 6k here we come!

 

[WentOffGrid]

Bang-BOOM! Took a big-caliber shot at 293 with all the powder I had.

"Hope is not a strategy, but it is the only thing that made sense to me this morning" -Bob

 

[KarenRei]

Yeah, intraday low so far was $288.20.

BTW., you didn't specify order size when you asked our opinion - maybe your 10 million shares BUY LIMIT order at $288.00 scared them off?

BTW., there was a big drop on NASDAQ, which might eventually put some more drag on TSLA as well.

Lol, wish I was that much of a big fish

Just missed it. Oh well. Barring something like Elon going into work and shooting up the Gigafactory, that powder will remain dry.

 

[dondy]

Any ideas on where the bottom might be?

april.