TSLA Market Action: 2018 Investor Roundtable

[Fact Checking]

overworked, depressed, stressed and without a girlfriend...
He's probably in a tough spot, lashing out at how it feels.
And since most immediate production problems are solved, there are no emotional highs and sense of achievement that come with solving issues and getting tangible results.
Just a guess...

I think Elon's been through much worse personally (he has lost a child), but what is getting to him this time is the inherent injustice of the attacks against Tesla and him.

Elon was bullied viscously in school, and I don't think he ever expected to be bullied as a billionaire, often by being painted as a bully.

Success defines the American business press, and they are primarily measuring success through profits.

The likes of David Gelles of the New York Times probably feel genuine contempt towards Elon Musk for running a 40 billion dollars company that has not been sustainably profitable for a decade. They truly believe that he is a "fraud" for that reason, at least on a subconscious level.

If Tesla changes that in Q3/Q4 by becoming profitable then sentiment will flip over, violently.

Patience.

This will blow over, it's triggered by the existential threat many shorts are feeling, they redoubled their destructive efforts and they are mobilizing all the media and regulatory influence they have.

But they'll go bust while Tesla won't, and in a year Elon is going to be portrayed as the success he really is.

 

[Remus]

Not quitting Twitter, but there are so many things he can twit, Model 3, model Y, semi, roadster, China factory, solar panel, supercharging network and possible upgrade, automatic drive, Tesla energy, battery improvement..... Stay focused, stay on mission, yet having fun. That was what he did in the past, which thrilled a true believer like me and bring up the spirit of the general population.

This is what Elon said after the FH was launched "I like to do something that people can wake up in the morning and look up to and be proud of the humanity amid endless suffering and worry", which brought tears in my eye..

I like that Elon better, which is before his heart is hardened by the short sellers and seemingly the whole world running against him.

that is surely easier to do when no one is ask you to stick what to where. and 24/7 accusation of various kinds.

he has his weakness but his recent behavior clearly shows that he is taking people's advise and tackle his own weakness. We should support that effort, not abandon him on one setback.

 

[Causalien]

Don't even understand why elon wastes time on twitter. It's basically a cesspool.

If it's late and you feel like twitting, do what I do, get a deep tissue massage. Since elon has sore back, kills two bird with one stone. Oh ya, and it is super easy to fall asleep while getting a massage. 3 birds.

 

[Revhappy2]

Don't even understand why elon wastes time on twitter. It's basically a cesspool.

If it's late and you feel like twitting, do what I do, get a deep tissue massage. Since elon has sore back, kills two bird with one stone. Oh ya, and it is super easy to fall asleep while getting a massage. 3 birds.

With a happy ending for everyone, including shareholders

 

[Mike117]

I am honest... I feel Like Q2 might get a little disappointed with all that stormy weather...

I am really afraid but In hope that I am wrong.What dies Make you guys believe that Q2 will be better than expected after all this heat?

 

[Yggdrasill]

I am honest... I feel Like Q2 might get a little disappointed with all that stormy weather...

I am really afraid but In hope that I am wrong.What dies Make you guys believe that Q2 will be better than expected after all this heat?

Q2 is behind us. Q3 is what people are excited about.

Tesla has guided for a Model 3 production of 50-55k, and deliveries exceeding production. All data regarding production shows Tesla is more or less on track to hit that goal. Even the numbers provided by the short Skabooshka. Most analysis shows that 55k Model 3 deliveries most likely will mean that Q3 will be profitable. And Tesla also guides for profits.

Even if the market were to just shrug over a profitable Q3 - the expectation is that Q4, Q1, Q2, Q3, etc also will be profitable. The market will in all likelihood at some point readjust it's outlook on Tesla, given continued execution of the business plan.

The rest is just noise.

 

[Revhappy2]

Can someone tell me how is the TSLA stock valued right now? Is it I cheap expensive and on what basis? There is no EPS so that metric doesn't work. Then how do analysts come out with price targets and how do we know whether 300 is cheap, for example?

 

[Remus]

I didn't understand why people waste money on alcohol, weed, cigarettes either. Aflec just went to rehab, again. Only recently I started to understand why losing weight is so difficult. Apparently food reduces stress and it is a very safe way for that purpose

Don't even understand why elon wastes time on twitter. It's basically a cesspool.

If it's late and you feel like twitting, do what I do, get a deep tissue massage. Since elon has sore back, kills two bird with one stone. Oh ya, and it is super easy to fall asleep while getting a massage. 3 birds.

 

[SpaceCash]

Honestly everyone who is losing their sugar and literally selling shares over some twitter drama are making me shake my head.

Don't be stupid!

Everyone lamenting that Elon isn't more like Bezos or Zuck... Get real. Those guys are successful, and basically despicable people in their own ways. Certainly not morally upstanding people. Certainly not Elon. I reiterate; let Elon be Elon.

This stock is going to short squeeze HARD some time in the next 6 months. Remember that SP is lower than it was a YEAR AGO before the 3 was even out. The 3 is a raging success and Q3 is going to meet or exceed all our bullish expectations.

Keep calm and stay focussed. This is seriously about to pay off. I feel that this is obvious.

 

[LordAstinus]

Think of all the tweets you could have made instead of that post, plus the other ones just like it

You can still spend 19.25 minutes on Twitter today. If it makes it easier, you can start liking/retweeting what these familiar faces are tweeting:

Lycanthrope (@AskDrStupid) | Twitter
ValueAnalyst (@ValueAnalyst1) | Twitter
vincent (@vincent13031925) | Twitter
Reciprocity (@Rec1pr0city) | Twitter
David McLeod (@macrockets) | Twitter
MadPolak (@konrad_bilinski) | Twitter
...


And then, one day, before you notice, you'll be writing tweets by yourself... It happened to me...

 

[lklundin]

Someone as impatient as myself asked on Twitter about the pause in VIN registrations and Model3VINs repeated their reply:
"Negative. They’ve got plenty of buffer after last weeks VINs."

So as of today (and the past 8 days) Model3VINs has reported VIN registrations up to 108729.

As of today the past 31 days of Model3VINs' tweets have increased the VINs by 31669, still a very respectable monthly buffer of VINs.

PS. Apologies for replying (twice) to my own posts on this topic...

 

[Artful Dodger]

Can someone tell me how is the TSLA stock valued right now? Is it I cheap expensive and on what basis? There is no EPS so that metric doesn't work. Then how do analysts come out with price targets and how do we know whether 300 is cheap, for example?

Its cheap. Anytime a stock is below its 200 day moving average that stock is cheap. But also for TSLA, it's far below its "intrinsic value", which is the PV of projected 5 years of cash flow.

SimplyWall.St (free Reg req) does this calculation every night for every equity on NASDAQ. As of Aug 29, 2018 TSLA intrisic value is $534 per share, or 43% below the current SP of $305

 

[Revhappy2]

Its cheap. Anytime a stock is below its 200 day moving average that stock is cheap. But also for TSLA, it's far below its "intrinsic value", which is the PV of projected 5 years of cash flow.

SimplyWall.St (free Reg req) does this calculation every night for every equity on NASDAQ. As of Aug 29, 2018 TSLA intrisic value is $534 per share, or 43% below the current SP of $305View attachment 330269

Thanks, this really helps in making a case for buying.

 

[Matias]

With a happy ending for everyone, including shareholders

 

[avoigt]

Reading the posts here in the last 24 hours I sense a lot of nervousness and searching for explanations and I ask myself why. I try to understand that sentiment and believe people are way too much focussed on the daily/weekly stock movement versus the instinct value of the stock and long term outlook.

A higher stock price say we would be today in the higher 300s does not protect your investment nor does it express the real value of Tesla. The stock price means nothing but the value does. Only exception: you don't have time or you are unable to deal with your own emotions. In both cases I recommend not to invest.

I can understand if you are deep in options or a swing trader that the daily chard does matter to you but the vast majority of people here are more focussed on the long term I believe.

All analytics I look at and assess is telling me exactly the same story. Thats a very unique situation I have not seen before.

This I believe is true for negative and positive reports, analysts, youtubers and you name it. I hardly remember and believe have not had before any investment where I did feel so strongly that the real value of the company is not at all realized by the market or priced in. Thats an awesome situation to be in which we will all remember as a great moment in retrospect.

Having said that I feel very relaxed with my investment as its always only a question of time until the real value is finally priced in until its overblown. Thats at least my experience with the stock market.

You can fool the public for a while and press the price down with shorts and biased information maybe even for years or have a CEO Twitter not helpful messages but at the end the real value and more will appear to the public and be priced in. Its like the truth that you cannot hide forever one day it will appear.

All what you need to bring is time and patience.

If you do not have time and patience - do not invest in Tesla.

 

[aubreymcfato]

Probably *the* best thing Tesla Owners can do for fighting FUD is to give rides to strangers/acquaintances, either with Uber or Lyft of however is best for you.

Twitter is important but it's also a very big bubble: much of the shorts have few followers and talk directly in $TSLA and $TSLAQ threads that nobody reads. Sometime they popup in other timelines but that's it. Media FUD won't stop overnight if we twitter users with few followers just start tweeting. I just go and like and retweet, but I bet my impact is minimal.

What's definitely important is to have average people drive a Tesla,be in one, understand what's like. You conquer them for life, and they won't believe more FUD headlines in the future. I think you just win them over without much arguments. They will see with their own eyes what's like.So just organize BBQ weekends and let your friends stay in a Tesla. Go to your daughter's friend birthday party and let other parents check your car. Be the driver car-pooling some co-workers. I mean, if you organize a bit you can change the mind of 30-40 people in few weeks...

I bet a Model 3 owner who does Uber/Lyft has a greater and profound impact than 100 new twitter users.

 

[heltok]

There is some interesting feedback catch 22 with startup companies. A lot of customers don't want to buy a car if they feat that the company will go bankrupt and service might become tricky. And people fear betting on the losing team. With all these negative headlines, a lot of people will start to feel doubt. This might translate into fewer sales and less profit. Tesla are very very lucky to have the enormous backlog of orders and customers willing to take risks. If they didn't have this the decision to invest even more heavily to higher capacity would have been even more dangerous.

I think Tesla are safe. They will ride this one out and post two solid quarterly profits, even if they have to game the first one slightly. And once they do, expect a lot of new orders from people on the side line waiting to see which team to bet on.

 

[WentOffGrid]

... and it gives a chance for some more committed longs to grab some more stock.

Sing to me, baby!!!

 

[dondy]

As of today the past 31 days of Model3VINs' tweets have increased the VINs by 31669, still a very respectable monthly buffer of VINs.

PS. Apologies for replying (twice) to my own posts on this topic...

If I would do VIN scrambling in dynamic manner, I would procure VINs in sufficiently big chunks and draw VINs randomly from them, adding smaller VIN bits as necessary "noise" in the process.
just saying.

 

[WentOffGrid]

Unfortunately, I am also thinking about lighting up on the stock.

Fortunately, I am done thinking about heavying up on the stock. Going on a buying binge today!!