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TSLA Market Action: 2018 Investor Roundtable

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1. My daughter was driving her new M3D to work yesterday. She had a pickup truck pass her on a residential street and then roll coal.
(for those not familiar, this link:
)
As she described this juvenile and pointless behavior to me I realized this is the perfect visual metaphor for the type of attacks Tesla and Elon Musk are dealing with now.

2. The most significant data from Elon Musk for me this week was his terse and humorous dismissal of Steve "I'm ready for rehab" Bannon's provocation. I would love to see more of that.

3. I'm a creature of habit. Starting Tuesday I will limit my posting to "General Investor Discussion" to help reduce the Market Action clutter. I like to learn by following the Market Action thread.
 
There's just nothing left.

I don't know why you all trust Elon's guidance. In early May 2018, Elon said they'd be at 5k/week by the end of Q2. But in Q2, they still averaged below 2500/week, and even worse on deliveries. And Q3 guidance is below 5k/week.

.

You know, if you shorts can stop twisting math like this you'll gain mote recognition here. It might work on people with no education, but I am sure most of us here have university degrees and have passed statistical methods.

Elon said production rate will be 5k/week by end of quarter. So if the line is going at 5k / week on the final day, then he kept the promise, but it was achieve for a period of 7 days (hence by the end of the quarter) . If the ramp goes from 0 at the beginning of the quarter and goes to 5000 at the end, and if you divided the total number of cars by days of production, of course it's going to average down to 2500.

It is kind of insulting to our intelligence that you think we'll fall for these. Or could it be possible that you don't understand the meaning of averages.
 
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1. My daughter was driving her new M3D to work yesterday. She had a pickup truck pass her on a residential street and then roll coal.
(for those not familiar, this link:
)
As she described this juvenile and pointless behavior to me I realized this is the perfect visual metaphor for the type of attacks Tesla and Elon Musk are dealing with now.

2. The most significant data from Elon Musk for me this week was his terse and humorous dismissal of Steve "I'm ready for rehab" Bannon's provocation. I would love to see more of that.

3. I'm a creature of habit. Starting Tuesday I will limit my posting to "General Investor Discussion" to help reduce the Market Action clutter. I like to learn by following the Market Action thread.
If she got the plate, in some states it is a very illegal mod, and the state can force a refit back to original, talking a few $1,000+, a very expensive prank that can "backfire"
 
I think there's a clear quality problem with the Model 3. There are hundreds of reports across Tesla's forums, these forums, and Twitter of customers having problems getting their cars.

If you've been reading and posting at Macrumors as long as I have, you'd probably believe that iPhone has the worst build quality of any phone in the mobile industry, and that Apple has terrible logistics that can't get enough phones to Apple Stores in the Fall.

Just some of the iPhone complaints that happen every year:
  1. panel gaps (yes, this scrutinized to the nanometer on every model)
  2. display panel lighting unevenness
  3. backlight leakage
  4. anodization flaws in paint
  5. button rattles
  6. buttons not feeling right when pressed
  7. battery life ruined after updating iOS
  8. electric buzzing noises
  9. dust behind camera lens
  10. Apple store didn't have the model person wanted in stock
  11. iPhone wasn't delivered on release day. Lost by Apple's shipping vendor
  12. Mobile phone company didn't receive shipment from Apple on launch day
  13. Pre-order didn't go through and wait is now 2 months.
The bottom line is that one cannot necessarily discern mass or systemic problems from anecdotal complaints on Internet message boards. If anecdotes were a reliable way to detect problems, Apple should have died a long time ago based on the volume and vociferousness of complaints I read every year.
 
Shortsville Times: Model 3 Distribution Lots Are Actually Secret Car Graveyards
"Please don't multiply how many weeks we've been saying this by Model 3 production rates and compare that to how many cars the lots can actually hold" say experts

Related:
* Europe, Asia, Rest of World Do Not Exist
* February 27th Coming Up Tomorrow
* Model S and X Demand Collapsing - This Time, It's Actually True!
* Anecdotes Now Data, Say People Who Scour Net Looking For Anyone With Anything Bad To Say About A Model 3

HEADLINE: Shortsville Times

Shortsville Times finally hires copywriter.
 
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Apple ecosystem across all their products work well. It’s the total package of Apple that consumers buy into, thus you don’t just buy the iPhone, you buy everything else, including the music service and storage service (and anything on iTunes). In addition, developers make more money with Apple App Store across all their products. It’s something like 90% of all Apple product users download new iOS updates, meaning most are running the latest software as soon as it is available. Where the Android is less then half that, and there is a majority running multiple older versions of their operating system.

Again, it’s the ecosystem keeps them very attractive to consumers. They introduce a new product, consumers have an expectation it will fit seemlessly into the ecosystem they know.

Thanks for the info -- I detest the entire Apple "ecosystem". For example, the music service and storage service are, to me, completley useless crap; they don't have my music and they don't handle it well when I try to add my music.

So I repeat, I don't get it. Fine for other people who get it to invest, but I really don't get it.
 
Thanks for the info -- I detest the entire Apple "ecosystem". For example, the music service and storage service are, to me, completley useless crap; they don't have my music and they don't handle it well when I try to add my music.

So I repeat, I don't get it. Fine for other people who get it to invest, but I really don't get it.

Since it is the weekend @neroden I had to just give you a 'funny'......Keep on posting, you are valuable to TMC.
 
Just checked and apparently iTunes still isn't handling playback of gapless albums correctly, after decades. Tesla has the same problem (and it's terrible), but iTunes is actually supposed to be a specialty music player, whereas Tesla is selling a car. First thing I'd have to do with Apple's craptastic music system is to download a third-party music player because Apple's system *does not work right*, and can you see why I use Android? I'm already having to download third-party software to do everything basic.

Basically it's all like this. If you like junk that consistently half-works, then yes, you'll love Apple's "everything half-works consistently". If you want things to *actually* work, it's much easier to get them working under a non-Apple system.

Apparently I underestimated the number of people who like junk which half-works out of the box, and who don't want to bother to find something which actually works. It's a lesson about the psychology of typical humans.

Oh, it gets worse. Apple's interfaces are wildly unergonomic and extremely unpleasant to use, but they're "cool looking" -- to some people, I guess. Form defeating function. This is anathema to me, but apparently extremely popular. Stuff like not having a headphone jack is another example of form (and cheapness) defeating function -- it just works worse, but oh, it's "cool looking".

When dealing with iCrap, I can't even get the gestures to work right, most of the time. Android isn't perfect, but it's managable.

I find it difficult to understand the psychology of people who like functionally inferior, but flashy products. However, such people seem very common. :shrug:

Anyway, this is off-topic. If you like Apple products, have fun with that. But it makes no sense for me to invest: I already think their products are intolerable, so if they suddenly became unpopular, I would have no idea that it was happening and no idea why, and the reason (maybe "the edges of the new iPhone aren't round enough") would seem like rampant lunacy to me. The principle of "invest in what you understand" is important.
 
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I don't know why you all trust Elon's guidance. In early May 2018, Elon said

It is a bad mistake on your part to say that we all "trust" Elon's guidance on his timelines.

I have been following Tesla for about 10 years now, and I observe 2 things:

(1) Elon Musk's guidance should almost always be disregarded on the matter of the timing of when something will happen. For example, when the Tesla revealed the Model S prototype in early 2009, the projection given to the press at the event was that the Model S would launch in 2011 (https://www.cars.com/articles/2009/03/tesla-model-s-electric-sedan-prototype-unveiled/), and be manufactured in volumes of 20,000 per year by 2012 (Tesla debuts electric car for the masses | CBC News). In fact, Tesla only delivered Model S in 2012, at a volume of 2600 units, or a year late and at 1/8th the projected volume.

(2) Tesla eventually meets and exceeds its goals. By 2016-2017, Tesla was delivering 50,000 units of Model S per year, far more than the original goal.

I don't trust that if Elon says X will happen on Y date, X will happen on Y date. I do believe that Elon can make X or 2X happen at some undetermined time after Y date. His track record on the Roadster, Model S, Model X, Falcon 1, Falcon 9, and Falcon Heavy are all the same: late or very late, but eventually exceeds expectations.

There are of course financial considerations, but both Tesla and SpaceX have dealt with this before. I read Tesla's financial statements every quarter, and I do not believe that they are in any immediate financial danger. Ars Technica, a fairly anti-Tesla tech website, did their own analysis recently and reached the same conclusion.

Most people here are also cognizant of the risks on a business like Tesla. I for one have a diverse portfolio. Sometimes bad, unforeseeable things happen, so it is only prudent to make sure there is no single point of failure in one's personal finances.
 
Inside EV's Monthly Plug-In Sales Scorecard counts US sales, this recent data actually comes from EV Sales: Global Top 20 - July 2018 and is global sales.
Note that Model 3 is now 10% of the EV market. All three models combined, Tesla sports a 14% market share.

My longterm hope is that Tesla grabs 20% share of EV market and holds onto this as EVs approach 100% of the auto market. In that way, Tesla gains 20% of the whole auto market.
 
There's just nothing left.

They're not going to deliver 50k Model 3s this quarter. They probably won't deliver 45k. I wouldn't be surprised to see it come under 40k.

I think there's a clear quality problem with the Model 3. There are hundreds of reports across Tesla's forums, these forums, and Twitter of customers having problems getting their cars.

Other anecdotes: Canada S/X sales were way down in August, and Model 3 registrations are way down in New York State.

I don't know why you all trust Elon's guidance. In early May 2018, Elon said they'd be at 5k/week by the end of Q2. But in Q2, they still averaged below 2500/week, and even worse on deliveries. And Q3 guidance is below 5k/week.

Look back at when Elon promised profitability: a tweet in April. He's been doubling down ever since. I think it was a mistake, a hole he has dug too deep. Another random, impulsive tweet.

With all that in mind, they won't be profitable, and they absolutely won't be cash flow positive.

At this point, there are 4 weeks left in the quarter.

Shorts are feeling pretty good given that we're still seeing cars on lots in Lathrop, Burbank, and Service Centers sitting idle for weeks. Hitting their target would require much more turnover than what we're seeing.

If Tesla comes under 45k deliveries, the stock will be hammered.

No one cares about production anymore. With debts coming due, the only thing that matters is deliveries.

- theyll be able to pay the 920mm and interest.
- and if it gets hammered temporarily, they’ll be plenty of buyers waiting
 
AirPods alone prove this false. I’m using mine right now and after a year I still consider them the best Apple product since iPad. It may not be obvious unless you try them yourself.
Agree. Off track but see lots of opportunities for Apple. Better security than std Android devices, unless you like Facebook capturing all your text messages. Secure enough to be trusted as a part of a digital medical services platform. I think that could double the value of the brand.

On track, hoping production picks up as they nail down the paint line. If malware was an issue, hope that is resolved and back towards 6000 per week this month. Release v9 and see the next level in autopilot and jump past everyone in the field. Next up the Tesla Tesla chip and hopefully coast to coast FSD trip by March, against the backdrop of positive cash flow and earnings.
 
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Thanks for the info -- I detest the entire Apple "ecosystem". For example, the music service and storage service are, to me, completley useless crap; they don't have my music and they don't handle it well when I try to add my music.

So I repeat, I don't get it. Fine for other people who get it to invest, but I really don't get it.

well, on one hand i’ve made nice returns on aapl stk and options over the years. i use their products. i’m not in love with them though. i wish the software was better...

hmm, where have i heard that complaint before :)
the difference is that apple should be way better at than tesla at this point. they have no excuse. it tesla has to get on the ball as well.

as far innovation at apple, what have they done? given they’re a cash machine, which is why i still own it. but whatever happened to the ibm partnership? where’s the breakthrough home products? health? nothing overly beneficial that others aren’t doing...to me that’s disappointing.

and anyone wishing for apple to buy tesla? well, they clearly don’t give a sh!t about tesla! that would be the end. i’d take the apple payout and run for the hills.
 
Agree. Off track but see lots of opportunities for Apple. Better security than std Android devices, unless you like Facebook capturing all your text messages. Secure enough to be trusted as a part of a digital medical services platform. I think that could double the value of the brand.
Apple has been slowly developing a solid security reputation, I'll give them that.
 
The shorts have been successful at holding the share price around the $300's which is below whatever number is required to make the convertible bonds actually convert. So there does need to be a real sustainable share price appreciation following Q3 and Q4 results.
Those bonds are (probably) getting paid off. Paying down the debt is arguably going to slow down the possible rate of growth for Tesla. But if I take luvb2b's estimates, I would expect 3.47 billion in cash at the end of 2018. After paying off 920 million. and having positive cash flow of another 500 million or so, they'll probably end the first quarter with about 3 billion in cash; enough for everyday needs; somewhat reliant on continuing to have decent financing terms from most suppliers, but basically fine.
 
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