TSLA Market Action: 2018 Investor Roundtable

[AlMc]

...for STEAKS!

I miss steak

 

[humbaba]

I finally got used to the FUD acronym and now I have to deal with the FSD acronym. I am assuming it means Full Self Drive. ENOUGH WITH THE ACRONYMS. EWTA EWTA EWTA EWTA EWTA. Have fun with that one. I believe the thinking goes that the more acronyms you use the smarter people will think you are. EWTA EWTA.

I like to get information from the horse's mouth so here goes:

FSD is short for "Full Self-Driving Capability". Tesla says that, "In the future, Model 3 will be capable of conducting trips with no action required by the person in the driver’s seat." [1]

But that really isn't very specific. I mean, what sort of trips are included? Cross country interstate? To my relatives that, despite being on a paved road, is not on anybody's mapping software? Is Tesla committing to successfully navigating a local marathon? If you really think about it, the statement says almost nothing.

Okay, let's see if we can plot it against SAE's autonomous driving levels. Depending on how you think answers to exploratory questions go, this could be anywhere from level 3 to level 5, but apart from some very hand-wavy divisions there isn't much more information. [2]

If we take a step back, EAP (Enhanced Autopilot) is supposed to provide:

• Auto Lane Change
• Autosteer
• Traffic-Aware Cruise Control
• Autopark
• Summon

so there is really quite a lot of improvement to do on those basic features that would go toward supporting the basic statement of "conducting trips with no action required".

Personally, I think it is smart of Tesla to not be specific about what FSD will entail as it gives them room to maneuver as they sort out which of the hard problems they can actually solve. All they really need to do is deliver something significantly beyond EAP without being committed to solving every problem.

Even if, unlike me, you think that SAE level 5 is around the corner it makes sense to be somewhat cagey about the product specifications when the product doesn't exist yet. Anyone involved in software projects knows its hell when management or sales commits to arbitrary features without consulting those who have to actually make it do it. Strong commitments can tie your hands in really awkward ways.

Just as a hint to how meaningless comparisons of autonomous driving are, consider that Waymo is geofenced while Tesla is free roaming. In a Waymo world you would be able to "take a trip with no human driver" -- provided it was within an area and along routes that they supported. However, Waymo is pushing strongly to eliminate the human (and the associated driver cost) while Tesla is not -- if you have an M3 with FSD there will *still* be the possibility of a human driving along with the "wasted space" of the driving controls.

Sorry for going off the market action topic.

1) https://3.tesla.com/model3/design?&redirect=no#autopilot
2) Autonomous car - Wikipedia

 

[Causalien]

You may well be right. I realize that I've fallen victim into thinking the Q3 results will have a big impact. I think what will definitively move the stock will be when more investment firms realize that Tesla is performing -- and that isn't likely to be Q3 or even Q4. Normal people like myself can't hold enough stock to make any impact on the overall stock price, that will come when there is large, long interest.

Which is fine by me: as a long I'm not that worried about results now or even next year. Actually, I'm thinking more about ten to twenty years from now. In the meantime we will have considerable volatility. It is what it is.

Judging from the current pattern and volume. We are still in a state that is caused by lack of buyers. Falling price with lower volume. I doubt us retail investors have enough to make up for that lost buy volume.

Elon probably really damaged some institution's holdings with the 17 days about face. I wonder if some of them have to wait till next quarter to re buy back due to tax and reporting issues.

I for one got caught with a few funds and shares in transfer while taking some tax hits as I was going along with establishing a corp to go private in case normal retail investors get kicked out. You can't really wait till actual shareholder vote confirmation to do these things. Now imaging the chaos at a bigger fund with bigger legal requirements.

I understand Elon's hatred for shorts and indifference for traders, but I hope he now understand that even those who are onboard with the mission have to move stuff around from time to time and broadcasting stock moving twits on a whim does nothing but damage his base.

 

[K_Dizzle]

Same goes for Lyft/Uber - why wait for self driving, once the 35k model 3 with longer durability and less maintenance (and less frequent total replacement) cost than their gas counterparts are out, there will be plenty of takers.

Neither Uber nor Lyft have an electric category, probably because they are financed in part by anti-electric money like KSA money through softbank and/or GM. Instead Lyft does 'gas discount' promotions etc.

I’ve tweeted this at Elon many times. I’d be happy to drive my car as a service for Tesla network. Never for Uber or lyft though.

 

[Boomer19]

Seriously this so called Elon Musk is getting to be a huge joke and I do really hope he pays for his *sugar*. Even if everything is true, Elon, my lovely liar, even then you should focus on your promises. One who is in the glass door does not throw stones at other people. Get your personal mess together and DELIVER instead of being a joke on weed like you were in the last 3 weeks. Your investors who believe in the future of Tesla have lost millions of dollars because of your stupidity and your unhealthy EGO. Stop now and DELIVER RESULTS. You are not anymore a child fighting for attention. Get your attention from SUCCESS. Do not make empty promises AND DELIVER.

are you in need of a timeout. you’ve gotten progressively worse. several members have tried to help you. you don’t respond to the help, but rather post more aggressive nonsense about EM...stop acting like a child.

 

[Boomer19]

Did you really just say that? And you are living in the States where there are the most killer attacks on high schools so you are probably also a killer?

People please, act smarter. Who can Elon in any sense have any clue that this guy is a pedo? It just came out of his mouth and if it's true or not doesn't even matter - Elon is destroying Tesla brand value. However I do believe that Elon is in huge stress and does therefore write these unintelligent statements. This does not mean that Tesla is doing bad - it just means that Elon needs some.vacation and the last weeks were too much for him. He can't handle it anymore and therefore acts with agression.

i can’t believe it’s 7:10pm andyou still haven’t been banned

 

[X Fan]

A damming headline: https://jalopnik.com/the-2020-mercedes-benz-eqcs-200-mile-range-is-a-disappo-1828812912

 

[humbaba]

Are you considering the value add from Rideshare Tesla as people may use this as a way to partially finance a Tesla which could open up new markets even below the Honda Civic or Accord current market? Yes, I do see this eventually happening, but agree it will be many years out, maybe 2025.

When it comes to details like this I have no opinion on their value add. I can see how someone could do a quantitative evaluation of $TSLA by going through and attempting to enumerate all of the sources of value and quantifying the contribution of each. If someone did that I would be very interested to read it.

But I'm not doing quantitative analysis -- I'm doing qualitative analysis which is *far* easier. My reason for investment is simply that I can readily see that $TSLA is undervalued despite which, at this point, it is in a strong position. I have a sense (right or wrong) that the increase is inevitable within a fairly short horizon (remember, I'm not quantifying anything, so let's just say "no more than a few years"). So, I invest.

In the future the stock will rise (at least, that is my thesis ) but inevitably there will be downturns. Because $TSLA does not (and official guidance is that they never will) pay dividends the only way to make money off of $TSLA is to sell it. So the question then becomes, when do you sell?

For me that is relatively simple: as late as possible. There are two reasons for this:

1) as a general rule, stocks appreciate in value. So the longer you wait the greater your return (in absolute dollars). Yes, they go down, but /in the long run/ they will go up again.

2) I'm hoping that despite the guidance eventually they will reward investors with dividends. It makes no sense to even talk about that now when they are just approaching profitability and will likely be less profitable once more from capex for Y, semi, etc.

This is a very lazy way to invest and not particularly profitable. I would make better money by investing at the bottom of steep increases in stock price and selling when it starts to level out, re-investing in the next steep increase. Naturally, doing so requires a lot more effort and there is always risk. I'm too lazy and ulcer-adverse to do that sort of investment.

 

[anticitizen13.7]

The cave diver situation is a lose-lose for Musk and Tesla. At this point I don't think it is about whether Elon is right or wrong, it is the perception of bad judgement and a CEO who erratic. Elon needs to see he cant win here and being proven right is no benefit to himself or his company. The best move for him is to simply drop it, right or wrong there is nothing good that can come from proving this guys is/isn't a pedo.

There is something that people here should know, as to WHY Elon Musk could be reacting in a very emotional manner to the diver:

Inside the Complicated Relationship Between Elon Musk and His Estranged Father, Errol Musk

“Elon Musk—the billionaire co-founder of highly-influential companies such as Tesla and SpaceX—has rarely opened up about his relationship with his estranged father, Errol Musk, who recently made headlines when he announced he had a baby with his stepdaughter—who is 40 years his junior.”

Elon Musk told biographer Ashlee Vance that Errol was evil, but didn’t go into specifics.

It’s not a stretch to see why Elon would be triggered, if the allegations against the cave diver have a reasonable basis in reality.

 

[ZsoZso]

That's 30 more responses than the survey linked that I quoted...

If 193 responses is sufficient for @KarenRei , then 223 should be even better, no?

So let me do the math for you: 223 x 62% = 138 Model-3 had some problem, out of ~50K sold so far, so the real percentage of failure is under 0.3% Yup that sounds about right and it is not alarming at all!

 

[Boomer19]

You may well be right. I realize that I've fallen victim into thinking the Q3 results will have a big impact. I think what will definitively move the stock will be when more investment firms realize that Tesla is performing -- and that isn't likely to be Q3 or even Q4. Normal people like myself can't hold enough stock to make any impact on the overall stock price, that will come when there is large, long interest.

Which is fine by me: as a long I'm not that worried about results now or even next year. Actually, I'm thinking more about ten to twenty years from now. In the meantime we will have considerable volatility. It is what it is.

i think @Causalien meant q3 del/prod numbers not making a big ark price impact.

i don’t think he meant q3 earnings release in that context.

correct me if i’m wrong..that’s how i took his point, which i thought was a good one.

 

[humbaba]

i think @Causalien meant q3 del/prod numbers not making a big ark price impact.

i don’t think he meant q3 earnings release in that context.

correct me if i’m wrong..that’s how i took his point, which i thought was a good one.

I agree that it is a good point, whether meant just for these numbers or for the q3 earnings release. I don't know which he meant, but:

One of the things about this forum being so bullish is that people can lose sight of the rest of the world which lacks the same enthusiasm. Its not that anyone is wrong to be a bull, but if you consider the level of FUD being constantly leveled at Tesla I don't think it is a stretch to think the market response may be muted.

I mean, after Q2 I thought, "well, that's it, I got interested in $TSLA too late." Sure the stock went up to ~$380 and Musk's going private tweet is largely blamed for it going down. But all of that is really just speculation. While it is *expected* for a stock to go up on a good earnings report the *amount* by which it climbs is pretty arbitrary.

And, despite very clear indications of good performance during the second quarter the stock is down even farther. I'm just taking the point more generally that we should not assume too much for the Q3 report in terms of stock movement.

 

[EVNow]

I read it as "Goldman Sachs didn't receive any material information."

One outcome of 2008 settlements between FIs and Justice was that FIs will install a firewall between their analysis and consulting departments. Don't know how strictly these things are followed, but there shouldn't be any info flowing between the consultants Tesla hired and the analysts.

 

[FirebirdAlpha]

Leaving this here because it's going to hurt the stock price tomorrow:

https://www.buzzfeednews.com/article/ryanmac/elon-musk-thai-cave-rescuer-accusations-buzzfeed-email

BuzzFeed obviously doing real reporting:

• Musk quadrupling down on the Pedo claims. Called Vern a "child rapist" despite offering no evidence.
• Multiple rescue ops and divers confirmed that Vern was a major help
• They also say Musk's sub wasn't viable
• Vern has had a girlfriend for 7 years who's 40 years old
• None of the Unsworths are commenting on the allegations, something a component lawyer would insist upon ("leave all the talking to me").
• Vern's lawyer proved he sent the letter to Musk's team in early August.
• Musk's only evidence is the area that Vern had been living in?

 

[Boomer19]

I agree that it is a good point, whether meant just for these numbers or for the q3 earnings release. I don't know which he meant, but:

One of the things about this forum being so bullish is that people can lose sight of the rest of the world which lacks the same enthusiasm. Its not that anyone is wrong to be a bull, but if you consider the level of FUD being constantly leveled at Tesla I don't think it is a stretch to think the market response may be muted.

I mean, after Q2 I thought, "well, that's it, I got interested in $TSLA too late." Sure the stock went up to ~$380 and Musk's going private tweet is largely blamed for it going down. But all of that is really just speculation. While it is *expected* for a stock to go up on a good earnings report the *amount* by which it climbs is pretty arbitrary.

And, despite very clear indications of good performance during the second quarter the stock is down even farther. I'm just taking the point more generally that we should not assume too much for the Q3 report in terms of stock movement.

another good point. can’t assume anything with this. the big boys are tooling this stock to make it do whatever they want, and steamroll us little fish in the process. best to just own it.

 

[beachbum77]

Hey ValueAnalyst... Instead of just disagreeing with comments how about adding something to the discussion? If you have time to read you must have a few minutes to write too. Or are you too busy writing something for your paying SA subscribers?

 

[anticitizen13.7]

Leaving this here because it's going to hurt the stock price tomorrow:

A recurring theme I see from bears recently is unwarranted certainty: "X happened so Y is going to result".

I caution everyone, regardless of bullish or bearish outlook, not to expect specific short term stock price moves based on certain events. Over the past 5-6 years, I've seen a lot of people get burned on these sorts of predictions, whether positive or negative.

 

[EVNow]

Elon probably really damaged some institution's holdings with the 17 days about face. I wonder if some of them have to wait till next quarter to re buy back due to tax and reporting issues.

I should say - in hindsight - that Musk was very unprofessional. He not only not understand the implications of what he was tweeting - but hadn't done the homework.

I've nothing against the mode of communication as such - but that he decided to take Tesla private without thinking through the process and consulting professionals on viability.

 

[JRP3]

Leaving this here because it's going to hurt the stock price tomorrow:

It was already posted, so you're behind, as usual. Your wishful thinking that it's going to affect the stock price is not a certainty.

 

[Zhelko Dimic]

Tesla Semi comes first anyways, that is a key strategic item that will bring a lot of powerpack and solar business along with it. Tesla Semi = Trojan Horse uitility vehicle. "Here are the demonstrated svaings of your megachargers with peak shaving advantage via solar and powerpacks. Imagine having that same cost advantage for all of your your industrial power needs"

I think a tesla version of the F150 would sell in the millions too, as would the Model Y. May overall be a less crowded segment.

It's only USA and to some degree Canada that care about trucks. No one else in the world. They don't even get it.
That's less than 20% of world market and about 50% of current Tesla sales.
SUVs are popular everywhere.