TSLA Market Action: 2018 Investor Roundtable

[MarcusMaximus]

Hi, I don't have much experience in trading and hold only 15 shares.
About shorting, many are interested in the percentage shorted (of the float).
I understand that's important, but I never hear somebody speak about the relation between that percentage and the actual SP.
Seems that like 30% shorted at 290 will have more impact (for a short burn) then 30% at 355?

That depends. Consider the scenario: SP is at $500 and short interest is at 30%. The SP drops enormously to $10. Those shorts aren’t forced to buy back their shares(many would probably take profits at that point, but they don’t have to). So the short interest is still at 30%. Would a short squeeze affect them more than if it happened directly from $500?

The only thing that matters in terms of hurting a short is what price they shorted the stock at, not what the current price is.

 

[ruralectric]

I believe we can thank Fred Lambert for the pop in the last few moments.

Tesla production picks up in the past few days as end of record quarter approaches

 

[LoveTSLA]

Some aapl $$$&&&& move back to Tsla now?

 

[avoigt]

As most of you know I am not a big fan of Fred's I"I have a secret source in the factory whisper numbers in my ear approach". However the numbers he reports are now consistent with Viki's statement that they are producing on record level this week. She deleted that later but you can find it here in this thread.

"A week later, Model 3 production increased to about 4,400 units this week (Friday to Friday), according to a source familiar with Tesla’s production.

Tesla produced close to 6,700 vehicles over the last 7 days, which is close to its record.

But the most encouraging data point is that production increased significantly in the past few days as Tesla produced around 2,300 vehicles in the last two days."

Tesla production picks up in the past few days as end of record quarter approaches

I like consistent messages as they are an indication that helps to qualify. 2300 Model 3s produced in 2 days is 8050 in a week. If they manage somehow to squeeze another 2k model S/X through the paintshop than we are at above 10k vehicles/week.

New record.

 

[ZachF]

Stock is poppin'

Back to $300 soon?

 

[Artful Dodger]

Just broke thru $295

 

[Xpert]

Nice breakout! Hoping for $301 soon...weak shorts should be afraid of holding through the weekend.

 

[LoveTSLA]

Now the tide start to turn high. This what I expected for today.

With the “Hurrican”, the tide is really going to be many feet higher. Enjoy! Hardcore Longs.

 

[Artful Dodger]

And shortly followed by the beatdown.

Let's see if we can hold $295

 

[avoigt]

17m17 minutes ago
#Tesla registered 1,931 new #Model3 VINs. ~100% estimated to be dual motor. Highest VIN is 114246.

 

[defc0n]

So much for the annoying $292 resistance.

 

[lklundin]

As most of you know I am not a big fan of Fred's I"I have a secret source in the factory whisper numbers in my ear approach". However the numbers he reports are now consistent with Viki's statement that they are producing on record level this week. She deleted that later but you can find it here in this thread.

"A week later, Model 3 production increased to about 4,400 units this week (Friday to Friday), according to a source familiar with Tesla’s production.

Tesla produced close to 6,700 vehicles over the last 7 days, which is close to its record.

But the most encouraging data point is that production increased significantly in the past few days as Tesla produced around 2,300 vehicles in the last two days."

Tesla production picks up in the past few days as end of record quarter approaches

I like consistent messages as they are an indication that helps to qualify. 2300 Model 3s produced in 2 days is 8050 in a week. If they manage somehow to squeeze another 2k model S/X through the paintshop than we are at above 10k vehicles/week.

New record.

Additionally, I am happy to see Model3VINs tweet registration of 1,931 new VINs, all estimated to be AWD, for a highest number of 114246.

Definately better than last Friday...

 

[dandurston]

But the most encouraging data point is that production increased significantly in the past few days as Tesla produced around 2,300 vehicles in the last two days."

2300 Model 3s produced in 2 days is 8050 in a week. If they manage somehow to squeeze another 2k model S/X through the paintshop than we are at above 10k vehicles/week.

I think you're mis-interpreting this. Fred's report is that Tesla produced 2300 vehicles in the past two days, not Model 3 alone. Typically S/X production is 2K/wk (285/day) so assuming typical S/X production that's 865 Model 3 per day for the last two days, which extrapolates to 6055 per week. So it sounds like they are finally scaling to 6K/wk if they can hold that level.

 

[MarcusMaximus]

This kind of price movement scares me. What on earth is causing this? The line is practically vertical...

 

[Artful Dodger]

2300 Model 3s produced in 2 days is 8050 in a week. If they manage somehow to squeeze another 2k model S/X through the paintshop than we are at above 10k vehicles/week.

No, that's 2,300 cars of all types in 2 days. That's a rate of 8,050 cars per week. We know S/X productIon is steady near 2,000 per week, so that's about 6000 Model 3s in a week, or about 850 per day, which is OUTSTANDING progress on production, AND EXACTLY ON GUIDANCE! Now let's see how long that burst can be sustained.

No wonder Elon feels comfortable enough now with production to move on the next biggest problem, which is delivery and customer communications.

GO ELON!

 

[WentOffGrid]

Nice breakout! Hoping for $301 soon...weak shorts should be afraid of holding through the weekend.

Wow, what a big jump up in a small period of time. If it holds/goes higher, you will definitely see shaking in those shorties.

 

[Boomer19]

repeated $2 gaps around 12:05 and 12:06

crazy

but then good old donald arrives to leak on the parade with his diarrhea of the mouth

 

[bdy0627]

Tesla the first automaker to deliver cars to two Planets


Shotwell: “The first cars on Mars will be Teslas.”

Is that priced into the stock yet?

 

[tivoboy]

This kind of price movement scares me. What on earth is causing this? The line is practically vertical...

Brought to you by the orange idiot. In an effort to shift the narrative from the guilty plea deal (with cooperation with Mueller) the white house has chosen THIS moment to say they are moving forward with the tariffs on an additional 200B in imported Chinese goods.

Just another example that you have to model EVERYTHING in price action projections

in other news. I did manage to sell someone sept 292.5 calls at 11.6$ It's a gamble at this point, but I think the price decay will let me either buy them back under 7$ or have them expire worthless.

Which means with near certainty that we will be above 304.1$ by next Friday ;-0

 

[ggr]

repeated $2 gaps around 12:05 and 12:06

crazy

but then good old donald arrives to leak on the parade with his diarrhea of the mouth

Yeah, I've never seen a graph like this before.