TSLA Market Action: 2018 Investor Roundtable

[Nate the Great]

Max Pain = 305

09/21/2018

Not always accurate.

Max Pain | Maximum-Pain.com

 

[TradingInvest]

Technical indicators still saying higher level is coming, maybe in 4 weeks, mid October. Spread seems better than pure Calls.

 

[lklundin]

Ganfeng, the world’s largest producer of lithium, signs strategic cooperation agreement with Tesla, the world’s largest maker of lithium-ion batteries. Not many details in the article, but looks like one more thing falling into place for the massive growth ahead:

BRIEF-Ganfeng Lithium Signs Strategic Cooperation Agreement With Tesla

The press release doesn't say that much, but links to the PDF in Chinese:
http://disclosure.szse.cn/finalpage/2018-09-21/1205461124.PDF

A google translate of that seems to mostly make sense, so people can get some idea of the details that way.

It is roughly a contract under which Tesla annually can buy 20% of the company's battery grade Li-hydroxide,
until and incl. 2020, extend-able for 3 years.

I speculate that the contract is there in order to secure supply for GF3.

Now, if someone knows the annual production, it would give an idea of the absolute amount.

Then one could start guessing at the planned Tesla production at GF3 - with the uncertainty
that some of the material could be shipped (with tariffs) to GF1.

Btw, has anyone seen similar contracts for the German car makers, e.g. for VW that has announced
their intention of building 1M cars annually?

 

[Ellec]

Seriously?? It is in the print paper. Get a grip.

Here is my top secret insider link:

Opinion | Tesla’s Biggest Problem Isn’t Elon Musk

Thought you said out today, it was out yesterday. Old news now.

 

[Todd Burch]

Their thesis is all wet.

Wet in terms of water, right?

 

[Todd Burch]

There's that big straight slide again, trying to keep price below $300. Something's happening in this stock that I've never seen before. (And I've owned it since just after the IPO).

Agree this stock is really coiling up for a blast upward.

 

[oneday]

The Bloomberg tracker has 94,600 M3s made so far with 41,000 at Q2, that's 53,600 made so far in Q3 with one week left to go. I think production of 57,000 is likely which is a solid beat of their 50-55k guidance. I think Tesla finally lowballed their guidance to make an easy beat (usually the opposite of what Elon does)

I wouldn't be surprised if Q3 M3 sales hit over 60k. (sales are supposed to be higer than production this quarter)

I think October will be when the reality of Tesla's turnaround starts to hit the market.

Soon we will get Q3 sales, where I think guidance has been purposely lowballed.
In a couple weeks we will get the 100,000th M3 built.
I also think Q3 will be a big surprise to the upside.

All this will be occurring when sentiment on the stock is low. Right now it's like a spring getting compressed harder and harder.

I think most people following production data closely are all saying Bloomberg tracker is over optimistic. For example Troy is predicting somewhere around 52k produced.

 

[tivoboy]

Max Pain = 305

09/21/2018

Not always accurate.

Max Pain | Maximum-Pain.com

But frequently especially when there is so much money at stake. Within 1% would be a confirmation.

 

[Lessmog]

There's that big straight slide again, trying to keep price below $300. Something's happening in this stock that I've never seen before. (And I've owned it since just after the IPO).

Agree this stock is really coiling up for a blast upward.

I suspected as soon as I saw the massive (~300k) deal in the first minute, that someone bought low in order to sell off during the morning and depess SP. May have been right, for once?

 

[BenPrice]

I think most people following production data closely are all saying Bloomberg tracker is over optimistic. For example Troy is predicting somewhere around 52k produced.

That’s 4K wk average. Works for me - I’m much more interested in deliveries, and there were at least 16000 unsold Tesla’s at the start of Q3.

 

[SpaceCash]

I think most people following production data closely are all saying Bloomberg tracker is over optimistic. For example Troy is predicting somewhere around 52k produced.

I find it HIGHLY unlikely they do anything other than beat 55. You saw Elon's brother, right? People don't just gloat like that unless they're killing it

 

[Opus BC fan]

and the MMD battle has begun...

 

[kbM3]

Several people have guessed 53 + 27.

Troy predicts 56.5k Model 3 deliveries.

 

[traxila]

Thought you said out today, it was out yesterday. Old news now.

Yeah a lot of old people don’t wait with baited breath for the internet edition to post the night before. They read their morning paper. They tend to have money.

 

[tivoboy]

Looking to buy back the 292.5 calls if under 4$
Won’t be surprised if we close under 300$ today.

 

[ggr]

Shortsville Times: U.S. government agency keeps crashing their Tesla Model 3's, Autopilot malfunction?

According to two anonymous whistleblowers, one of the largest U.S. federal agencies has suffered crashes with at least three separate Model 3's, which is a damning indictment of the safety of Tesla's Model 3. We could not independently confirm whether Autopilot was engaged. We are not disclosing the name of the affected agency, to protect the identity of our sources.

In a letter to investors, Tesla investors Jim Chanos, Mark Spiegel and Andrew Left have requested Tesla to immediately recall all Tesla Model 3, S, X and Roadster vehicles, and called for Tesla to immediately GAAP account the expected large expenses of hundreds of millions of dollars before the end of Q3. They also reiterated their call for the immediate resignation of Elon Musk as the CEO of Tesla.

Industry experts Dana Hull and David Gelles called the images of the crashed Model 3's "deeply troubling", and estimated that potential costs and long term liabilities could go into the billions of dollars.

Copyright (c) 2018, The Shortsville Times, Chief Editor @HG Wells.

You forgot to mention that none of the drivers escaped alive.

 

[M|S|W]

in the grand scheme of things this dip looks funny

 

[JoaoD]

Yahoo linking to a Class Action against Tesla as well as the VP of global management reportedly resigning. Looks like (at this time) this will be the FUD that they will use today to try to keep it under 300$.

"SHAREHOLDER ALERT - Bronstein, Gewirtz & Grossman, LLC Reminds Investors With Losses Exceeding $2M of Class Action Against Tesla, Inc. (TSLA) and Lead Plaintiff Deadline- October 9, 2018"

 

[mrdoubleb]

Yahoo linking to a Class Action against Tesla as well as the VP of global management reportedly resigning. Looks like (at this time) this will be the FUD that they will use today to try to keep it under 300$.

"SHAREHOLDER ALERT - Bronstein, Gewirtz & Grossman, LLC Reminds Investors With Losses Exceeding $2M of Class Action Against Tesla, Inc. (TSLA) and Lead Plaintiff Deadline- October 9, 2018"

The news section of my stock app has been full of these ambulance chaser "alerts" for the past month now. It appears there are several companies, but most of them only prompt people with several hundreds of thousands of dollars of damages. While i believe these have a high chance of being thrown out of court anyway, the fact that they seem to be desperately fishing for investors to join in for weeks now shows they don`t have a high take rate on this thing.

 

[Todd Burch]

The FUD is just comical now, it's so obvious. It used to bug me. Now I'm starting to just laugh it all off since redemption is coming.

I'm not particularly religious, but: