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TSLA Market Action: 2018 Investor Roundtable

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I'm so jealous with this whole end-of-quarter push and everyone who has their cars. I should've had my car by now! Oh well nothing to do but wait and keep checking with the DS.
Well, you're in Nebraska. :-( At least you have a delivery specialist!

But there are people in California who ordered at the end of June who haven't gotten their cars and haven't had a delivery specialist assigned at all, which is *crazy*. There is something *seriously wrong* with Tesla's computer system for tracking orders, and some group of people's orders has fallen through the cracks.
 
Why? It loses money on every car it sells. They're selling a dollar for 80 cents.

All this madness will just accelerate bankwuptcy. Any day now. The shorts must be ecstatic.

Now I have an idea for shorts: Buy a tesla! the more you buy, the more tsla loses, the quicker the bankwupcy, the faster you realize your capital gain.

Even better, sell it in two days in the second hand market to crush the tsla resale value. Then you have funds to buy another one. Rinse and repeat. Shorts can single handedly bankwupt tsla just by buying.
 
Boss Short:

Boss, Boss you won't believe the luck we are having this week.
Its unbelievable the gifts that we are getting.

Let me tell you the headlines I'm going to send out.

HEADLINE: Shortsville Times

Tesla can't pay employees, asks for volunteers.

7000 leftover unsold cars to be sold in mass sale.
Tesla running out of orders, offers free supercharging on model 3's.
Tesla offering discounts on demo cars, bankruptcy imminent!


I just can't believe our luck. It's like they want us to push the stock down!


Sincerely
Your Partner in Crime
Chief Editor
Shortsville Times
 
Counter FUD with FACT:

Dk-iKPTW0AAKBad.jpg


James Stephenson on Twitter
 
Another point to make is the apparent lack of priority for M3 reservation holders. Tesla is completely focused on pushing out cars to anyone they can immediately at the end of the quarter now and ignoring those with reservations. It is in their best interest to do so for quarterly numbers.

These sorts of debacles have unfortunately taught me to not put down a reservation for a Model Y once that time comes because it’s looking like I could get one easily and possibly with incentives without having to preorder.

Don’t get me wrong, I still want a Tesla, it’s just annoying to have to play these sorts of games.

Shouldn’t be an issue for Y as Tesla is aiming for profitability from here on out.
 
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So - let’s trust bloomberg and insideEVs at the same time.

InsideEVs claims ~16500 3s sold in US during Q2.

Tesla’s Q2 report states ~22000 3s sold in Q2.

That leaves ~5500 for Q2 Canada, which seems plausible to me.

Bloomberg believes ~90,500 3s have been manufactured.

Inside EVs believes 58,000 3s have been delivered total to US.

InsideEVs believes ~32,000 have been delivered in first 2 months of this quarter.

To target Q3 total deliveries, 26000 can be removed from Bloomberg’s total , 58000 US total less 32000 Q3. Also, Canada’s 5500 is removed from Bloomberg’s estimate.

Let’s put all this together:

90,500 total available (Bloomberg) less 26000 (EVSales US all quarters before Q3) less 5500 Canada (Inferred from Tesla Q2 and InsideEVs):

59,000 3s remaining.

Less 32000 already delivered leaves 27000 available for September.


Assuming 20% unsold is 48,000 remaining, and 22000 sold in September, which results in 54000 3 delivered in Q3.

Meets guidance seems reasonable. Exceeds guidance seems unlikely, but absolutely possible.

I’m guessing 56000 model 3 deliveries in Q3, combined with 26000 S/X = 82,000 deliveries total = Elon’s double delivery claim.

You lost me at ‘let’s trust Bloomberg and InsideEvs at the same time.’
 


FACT? Draw the same picture exluding GM finance it will look quite different and be an real comparson.

An interesting one could be debt vs produced cars or e mm ployee stock option per sold car.

I understand that are type of REAL comparisons are not of interest in this ecco chamber.
 
I was thinking of starting a "Tesla Death Watch" inspired in part by the Apple death watch. In a quick review to see if there already exists such a thing I stumbled on this golden nugget from 2008:

"I still believe Tesla doesn’t have a hope in Hell of staying in business. But it will take a while for that to play out. We’ll continue to cover Tesla as and when the situation merits. But TTAC won’t be hovering over Elon Musk’s minions vulture-like, waiting for the latest insult or injury. I made my point: they’re a company fuelled by tree-hugging hype rather than solid engineering or accountability."

A good thing for their dignity they stopped nine years ago....
Yeah, except they haven’t, specifically writer Steph Willms and Matt Posky. They both write significantly negatively slanted articles about Tesla. After the linked article, a commenter even says TTAC stands for Tesla Troubles, And Cars.

Let's Applaud These Affordable Cars for Their Tesla Model 3-like Crash Safety - The Truth About Cars
 
Well, you're in Nebraska. :-( At least you have a delivery specialist!

But there are people in California who ordered at the end of June who haven't gotten their cars and haven't had a delivery specialist assigned at all, which is *crazy*. There is something *seriously wrong* with Tesla's computer system for tracking orders, and some group of people's orders has fallen through the cracks.
In my case it is their payment system. But basically, yeah, they got lots of things to fix.
 
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In my case it is their payment system. But basically, yeah, they got lots of things to fix.
They lost your payment? Oy. Hope you have a record of it from your end. At least this is the sort of thing they *have* to prioritize (or get sued). Pretty straightforward error. They should be able to fix that within a day or two.

Does go to show the value of not handing them any money until you get the car.
 
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If you don't mind, I'll pick up your brains for a couple of minutes, to try to spot what's wrong with these number, guys:

1. According to Troy's spreadsheet (pretty reliable), Tesla Model 3 841 deliveries have been reported for US in September (including next week).
2. Tesla Model 3 376 US for Aug.
3. According to InsideEVs, 17,800 Tesla Model 3's were delivered in US.
4. If we extrapolate the proportion in the spreadsheet: 841/376 = 2.23 to InsideEVs number for August to estimate Sept, we get 2.23*17800 = 39,694!!!!!!!

That's completely crazy for September! And it wouldn't fit the current production estimate. My guess is that either the % of people reporting in the spreadsheet has increased, InsideEVs overestimated August or both a bit. Any other potential explanations?

Thanks!!!!





Teslike Model 3 Order Tracker (Published Web Version)

Screen Shot 2018-09-22 at 14.46.21.png



InsideEVs Plug-in Sales scorecard:
Monthly Plug-In Sales Scorecard


Screen Shot 2018-09-22 at 14.50.08.png
 
They lost your payment? Oy. Hope you have a record of it from your end. At least this is the sort of thing they *have* to prioritize (or get sued). Pretty straightforward error. They should be able to fix that within a day or two.

Does go to show the value of not handing them any money until you get the car.
Well the money is found now. It was put into someone else's account with the same name as me. The case is open to get it fixed but it sounds like the DS submitted it wrong a few times and/or they are really slow at fixing it. Supposedly he is going to get me on the truck anyway due to the overwhelming evidence that I've paid already but until it is in my driveway I'm going to be skeptical.
 
If you don't mind, I'll pick up your brains for a couple of minutes, to try to spot what's wrong with these number, guys:

1. According to Troy's spreadsheet (pretty reliable), Tesla Model 3 841 deliveries have been reported for US in September (including next week).
2. Tesla Model 3 376 US for Aug.
3. According to InsideEVs, 17,800 Tesla Model 3's were delivered in US.
4. If we extrapolate the proportion in the spreadsheet: 841/376 = 2.23 to InsideEVs number for August to estimate Sept, we get 2.23*17800 = 39,694!!!!!!!

That's completely crazy for September! And it wouldn't fit the current production estimate. My guess is that either the % of people reporting in the spreadsheet has increased, InsideEVs overestimated August or both a bit. Any other potential explanations?

Thanks!!!!





Teslike Model 3 Order Tracker (Published Web Version)

View attachment 337060


InsideEVs Plug-in Sales scorecard:
Monthly Plug-In Sales Scorecard


View attachment 337061
If you don't mind, I'll pick up your brains for a couple of minutes, to try to spot what's wrong with these number, guys:

1. According to Troy's spreadsheet (pretty reliable), Tesla Model 3 841 deliveries have been reported for US in September (including next week).
2. Tesla Model 3 376 US for Aug.
3. According to InsideEVs, 17,800 Tesla Model 3's were delivered in US.
4. If we extrapolate the proportion in the spreadsheet: 841/376 = 2.23 to InsideEVs number for August to estimate Sept, we get 2.23*17800 = 39,694!!!!!!!

That's completely crazy for September! And it wouldn't fit the current production estimate. My guess is that either the % of people reporting in the spreadsheet has increased, InsideEVs overestimated August or both a bit. Any other potential explanations?

Thanks!!!!





Teslike Model 3 Order Tracker (Published Web Version)

View attachment 337060


InsideEVs Plug-in Sales scorecard:
Monthly Plug-In Sales Scorecard


View attachment 337061
Well for starters what if you do the same math with the July numbers? Either way I'm thinking 60,000+ deliveries.
 
I know I'm not "lining up" to do this. I don't work for free, and I have my own stuff to do on my weekends you know?
So do I have my own stuff to do (mostly in the HoneyDo category!!). But I still volunteer every year to organize and/or participate in Drive Electric Week in my area. It’s that important to me that I *do* work for free sometimes.

Not calling you out or anything, just making a point. If I lived in Vancouver, I’d go do the orienting for new owners. It would be loads of fun. In a sense, the fun would be payment.
 
If you don't mind, I'll pick up your brains for a couple of minutes, to try to spot what's wrong with these number, guys:

1. According to Troy's spreadsheet (pretty reliable), Tesla Model 3 841 deliveries have been reported for US in September (including next week).
2. Tesla Model 3 376 US for Aug.
3. According to InsideEVs, 17,800 Tesla Model 3's were delivered in US.
4. If we extrapolate the proportion in the spreadsheet: 841/376 = 2.23 to InsideEVs number for August to estimate Sept, we get 2.23*17800 = 39,694!!!!!!!

That's completely crazy for September! And it wouldn't fit the current production estimate. My guess is that either the % of people reporting in the spreadsheet has increased, InsideEVs overestimated August or both a bit. Any other potential explanations?

Thanks!!!!





Teslike Model 3 Order Tracker (Published Web Version)

View attachment 337060


InsideEVs Plug-in Sales scorecard:
Monthly Plug-In Sales Scorecard


View attachment 337061
AWD make up a lot more of the deliveries in September compared to August. Troy says that the reporting sample rate for AWD is higher.
 
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