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TSLA Market Action: 2018 Investor Roundtable

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thought this was a good and balanced piece about likely outcome: Terms of Service Violation

Also I've been outspoken in thinking that Musk should settle and as many group thinkers are won't to do hav been attacked as a short. For the record TSLA is literally the only stock I've ever owned, and I've never decreased my position, only increased over time. That being said this has been a year of "own goals" if you will by Elon.

Also would really appreciate @DaveT take.
 
I don't like it when journalists act as if they can divine the will of the market and act as its interpreter. We simply don't know if Musk settling would push the stock price back up to $315 (in short order) or not. We don't know if the market would give Tesla a higher valuation if Musk were to step down as Chair. We don't know if the drop last night was because Musk refused to setter, or if it was just a reaction to SEC action apart from Musk's response to that action. All these interpretation involve counterfactual theories that simply are not observed. Yes, the price dropped, but that does not mean a journalist is doing any more than inventing their own narrative to give it meaning. It is not reporting, just opining.
 
The SEC doesn't have to prove "intent" in the normal layperson sense. So arguing against that is a strawman.

The SEC here, and the private plaintiffs in the class action litigations, have to prove "scienter".
"In the Second Circuit, “[t]he requisite scienter can be established by alleging facts to show either (1) that defendants had the motive and opportunity to commit fraud, or (2) strong circumstantial evidence of conscious misbehavior or recklessness.”

"Recklessness is defined as conduct that, at the least, is “highly unreasonable” and constitutes “an extreme departure from the standards of ordinary care to the extent that the danger was either known to the defendant or so obvious that the defendant must have been aware of it.” S. Cherry St., LLC v. Hennessee Grp. LLC, 573 F.3d 98, 109 (2d Cir. 2009) (emphasis in original) (quoting In re Carter-Wallace, Inc. Securities Litigation, 220 F.3d 36, 39 (2d Cir. 2000)); see also Chill v. Gen. Elec. Co., 101 F.3d 263, 269 (2d Cir. 1996) (“An egregious refusal to see the obvious, or to investigate the doubtful” can give rise to an inference of recklessness.”)."
To prove recklessness, evidence of recklessness must be presented. There was no change in the normal historical stock action, the daily swing was within historic norms of the stock movement. In the time being, Tesla has become the #1 grossing car in America and fastest growing automotive company unlikes we’ve seen since the days of Henry Ford. That’s completely opposite of reckless .

The entire case is a shakedown and a hostile take over attempt. It will fail.
 
The entire premise is false and misleading on behalf of the SEC.

Elon did state clearly he was considering going private. This was not a prediction of any sorts nor was it a statement of fact that he had any deal what so ever at $420.

The SEC has no grounds that Elon mislead anyone in saying he was considering going private at $420 given the funding secured at that price. He was considering is the key term of the entire thought, idea, expression to shareholders — not short traders betting on the company stock to go down, which is evidence is clearly showing they are the supporting force behind this SEC action.

Elon’s tweet was simultaneously available to *all* Tesla investors big and small, board members, employers and the like. All received the consideration at the same time, which prevented leaks and/or insider trading while putting out there for shareholder discussion as a consideration.

Then, as further development happened as all shareholders went down the road together in exploring the consideration further, more information as it came available was further pushed forward to shareholders.

This was a transparent *process* for shareholders to partake in. Shareholder feedback did happen and as a result the deal did not progress due to conditions not being met — such as small common share holders being able to maintain equity stake if they wanted and not just being bought out.

Retail shareholders love Tesla. They are the beating heart cheerleaders, the 12th person fan if you will of the company. It is more then just a piece of paper. It’s the future of a better country and of the world.

If a trial happens, the government will see that in spades and will quickly understand the direct relationship Elon has through his platforms of communication to them, the fellow investors and the how his extreme efforts he takes to create shareholder value every day.
And, pray tell, is that the sort of custodian we are left with here? (Referring to the first, bolded, sentence.)
FSM help us
 
thought this was a good and balanced piece about likely outcome: Terms of Service Violation

Also I've been outspoken in thinking that Musk should settle and as many group thinkers are won't to do hav been attacked as a short. For the record TSLA is literally the only stock I've ever owned, and I've never decreased my position, only increased over time. That being said this has been a year of "own goals" if you will by Elon.

Also would really appreciate @DaveT take.

There's a blatant lie in the second sentence....

and that he had a structure that would allow all of Tesla’s public shareholders to keep their shares in a private Tesla if they wanted to.

Musk never said that. He said he hoped to set up a structure that would allow public shareholders to do so, not that he already had one.
 
This isn't some sort of uncertainty - the SEC suit is unambiguous vis:

"This case involves a series of false and misleading statements made by Elon Musk, the Chief Executive Officer of Tesla, Inc. (“Tesla”), on August 7, 2018, regarding taking Tesla, a publicly traded company, private."
This reminds me of the old adage -- "The trouble with management is they're often wrong but never in doubt"

Note: this post is mostly for humour and does not point towards the management of any particular company. There is often a grain of truth in it, though, and that grain certainly applies to the SEC in this case.
 
I would love any of the following on the BoD

Eric Schmidt
Reid Hoffman
Bill Gates (don't laugh)
Sheryl Sandberg
Jeff Bezos (long shot)
Bob Iger

Thoughts anyone?
Iger is an interesting choice. I like Disney quite a lot. A media and service focus could be helpful to Tesla. I have a fantasy that someday there will be an Elon Musk theme park! I'd love to see some collaboration between Musk and Disney.
 
Don't forget today is also the last trading day of Q3.... If you wanted to time a release to help short's quarterly reports it would be hard to pick a better day than yesterday.
The timing was driven by Musk's legal team, not by the SEC. If they had held off on the settlement rejection until Monday, the SEC would have filed on Monday.
 
I don't like it when journalists act as if they can divine the will of the market and act as its interpreter. We simply don't know if Musk settling would push the stock price back up to $315 (in short order) or not. We don't know if the market would give Tesla a higher valuation if Musk were to step down as Chair. We don't know if the drop last night was because Musk refused to setter, or if it was just a reaction to SEC action apart from Musk's response to that action. All these interpretation involve counterfactual theories that simply are not observed. Yes, the price dropped, but that does not mean a journalist is doing any more than inventing their own narrative to give it meaning. It is not reporting, just opining.
Yes, they long to be playing The Narrator. However, in my Nordic tongue Narr means Jester, The One Who Fools, and hence the verb "narra", to pull the wool over, to pull a fast one, to sell a Pork-Pie.
 
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