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TSLA Market Action: 2018 Investor Roundtable

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Are we sure about this? Can someone confirm that there was NO short selling on Friday? (I'm surprised it dropped that much without short selling).

The uptick rule does the following, in my understanding:
  • It prohibits market makers from executing 'short sales' that mark down the price actively,
  • 'short sales' are sell orders by traders who have a short position in TSLA,
  • 'mark down actively' are orders that consume active liquidity on the bid: market/stop/vwap sell orders and sell limit orders with a low bid price.
  • Iceberg and other dark liquidity orders and secondary markets are affected too.
  • In practice it's all automated: shorts, when they try to execute such orders, get an order rejection from the exchange.
  • Short sellers are still allowed to sell short, by putting their SELL LIMIT order at least $0.01 higher than the current bid price. They are also allowed to buy to cover, of course.
I.e. shorts can "slow down" the rise of the price, like regular bearish investors selling some of their shares would, but they are not allowed to use the aggressive price manipulation tools they normally have: market, stop and limit orders that actively reduce the current price. (Which few bearish investors who sell would use, as it would mark down the price.)

That shorts are actively using these tools to create spikes down is all too evident from the price action, on almost every TSLA trading day: on bullish days they stop rallies and hunt stops on the way down, on bearish days they break through key resistance levels, on panic selling days they significantly magnify waves of selling. I've made several posts about the "spike seller" who was particularly aggressive about marking down TSLA on certain trading days.

Note how on Friday most of the drop was in the opening tick - the downside volatility was much lower during the day, largely due to the uptick rule preventing most short-seller shenanigans, IMO. There was still a lot of bearish selling because the SEC lawsuit was genuinely concerning news to many investors, but there were no artificial panic breakdowns in the price, manufactured by shorts.

We saw something very similar after the recent NYT drop as well, which activated the uptick rule for two days as well.

Maybe @Papafox could chime in as well?

Monday could demonstrate how price rallies in a world without short price manipulation would look like.
 
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Are we sure about this? Can someone confirm that there was NO short selling on Friday? (I'm surprised it dropped that much without short selling).

P.S. - I LOVE your posts Fact Checking. You have become one of the most informative members on this forum! I just want to be sure you're right on this one....

Someone checked and confirmed with a print screen from the SEC that the rule was applied Friday. The sharp drop was before the rule was enforced. If you look at the chard you will recognize it went more or less flat after the drop for the rest of they.

Given the crazy activity here over the weekend don't ask me for that post.... Its in this thread though.

Shorts would have know how to press it further down otherwise.

Given that the rule is always for 2 days implemented we know now that they will be limited in their manipulation efforts Monday. Going in with a short if the Q3 numbers are not out is risky for them unless they expect a big miss. That would be dump. More likely they wait for the letter and the market reaction. Once the first wave of excitement is over they will start spinning their nonsense.

At that point in time I expect the SP to be much higher and first shorts to jump in again.

Caution, I may be wrong with this assumptions. This stock has a tendency to act irrational and given I am a long term bull don't care that much what happens in a day or week....
 
Been off the boards most of the morning and I'm too lazy to go look, any reports on sales at the various locations where owners are helping out?

Inquiring minds are curious!
I helped out in San Diego and there appeared to be about 7 or 8 deliveries per hour. Some of the staff said that was busier than yesterday. They are also delivering some cars to people's homes, but I don't know how many. We were supposed to be on that list, for delivery of our M3p this evening, but "there was a problem with the truck", and someone told me it's now going to be next wednesday because our car has to be repaired. But our delivery guy has heard nothing about that. Definitely a lot of cluster going on. But I only saw one unhappy customer* out of about 40... and it was because she couldn't figure out how to pay for the car.

* If you don't count me after returning home to take delivery, that is.
 
Are you aware that Tesla sued Buffet's Nevada Energy for anti-competetive trade practices re: rooftop consumer solar? And Tesla won. Buffet's company is being forced to buy Tesla powerpacks as part of the settlement.

And Musk had a mini-feud with Buffet on Twitter earlier this year over moats and candy.

So, no. Buffet doesn't understand tech. Oh, and he Buffet owns a railroad, which Tesla Semi will compete with via platooning/FSD.

Sheesh. Could not easily find a worse choice.

You make some valid points.
However having Buffett as a close senior advisor is priceless.
He in his own right is a genius . Nobody under the sun
Has ever achieved the equivalent in investing.
 
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I helped out in San Diego and there appeared to be about 7 or 8 deliveries per hour. Some of the staff said that was busier than yesterday. They are also delivering some cars to people's homes, but I don't know how many. We were supposed to be on that list, for delivery of our M3p this evening, but "there was a problem with the truck", and someone told me it's now going to be next wednesday because our car has to be repaired. But our delivery guy has heard nothing about that. Definitely a lot of cluster going on. But I only saw one unhappy customer* out of about 40... and it was because she couldn't figure out how to pay for the car.

* If you don't count me after returning home to take delivery, that is.
Thanks for the info! Sorry about your m3p but at least it is coming... wish you could have driven it home today however!
 
You make some valid points.
However having Buffett as a close senior advisor is priceless.
He in his own right is a genius . Nobody under the sun
Has ever achieved the equivalent in investing.

Buffett has never been about changing the world. He has always been about reading the status quo and maximizing his profits from it.
 
This is actually a positive piece; no FUD, no spin.

Completely unlike the one I just read on Axios, culled from Google News, in which Tesla “is still burning through $1 billion a quarter”.

Yes. Reasonably balanced other than plugging it's own BB M3 tracker. :rolleyes:

I've had an extra feeling of pride driving around all weekend. Usually I'm just enjoying my own ride. Today I was mentally sending 'take this' darts to everyone I passed........which was essentially everyone. :D
 
Over $20,000 a year to insure a Model 3 through my credit union. Holy hell.

This is one for the shortville times as I just submitted proof of my actual insurance which is far cheaper. LMAO

Is this where people find FUD for insurance rates?
 

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You know what would be really cool? If Tesla built their own auto transport trailers that could be used not only for long haul behind a Tesla Semi, but also for customer delivery (after the cars have been prepped). A delivery route could be created and the card loaded appropriately, so that when the Semi and trailer arrived at the customer's site, the delivery person would "summon" the car off the trailer and driven right to the person. When the door was opened, the car could introduce itself, address the owner, and ask him or her if they had any questions.

I think that would blow people's minds and it could be very easily done. We'll just put some bleachers out in the sun and deliver them to Highway 61...

Must be Sunday...
 
Kelly, that seems a bit vague. Don't you think that the SEC's job is to make rules, and that they should be quite clearly spelled out?
Yes, but with regard to Twitter, they probably haven't gotten around to a specific set of rules as to how you can use it. So this settlement gives guidance to others without having to get too specific in their rules. I'm not sure it is realistic for any regulatory agency to have a list of rules so specific that all you have to do is find your situation in the rules and viola, you have the answer of what the law is.

Granted, this is only a judgement against Musk and Tesla, which probably isn't binding on other companies, but the SEC can now point other companies to these judgments to "warn" them as to how not to behave.
 
I think Gates would be a bad choice.

Not only did he set back IT decades, making everyone expect IT to always fail, but he also engaged in illegal, anti-competitive business practices.
This makes no sense. Its because of Gates that computers became ubiquitous.

I agree on the anti-competitive pice. But that's the nature of capitalism. Whichever company becomes dominant, it becomes anti-competitive. Whether it is Google, Amazon, Apple, AT&T, Facebook or Wal-Mart.

However having Buffett as a close senior advisor is priceless.
You mean useless. What exact skill does Buffett have that will help Tesla ?
 
I vote the real Fact Checking for Chairman of the Board, or at least an independent Board member. HIs wealth of detailed knowledge is outstanding and the value he adds to other TMC members is invaluable. Most recently his informative posts convinced me not to sell any of my TSLA as he makes sense out of seemingly troublesome times. And he has only been on TMC since August of this year. Bravo!
 
Yep, acceptance acts in the opposite direction of the original rejection of essentially the same terms on Thursday.

It could in fact be a bit more than just reversal of the Thursday news of the SEC filing the lawsuit: only Elon was the target of the SEC probe and lawsuit, but now both Elon and Tesla settled, removing two clouds of uncertainty...

I believe this is one of the reasons why shorts are livid: they wanted to keep slandering both Elon and Tesla about this - now both angles of attack are significantly weakened.

It's pretty telling that the FUD of the last 24 hours consisted mostly of lying/misleading about the settlement. ("Musk removed as chairman" etc. type of misleading headlines.)
 
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This is actually a positive piece; no FUD, no spin.

Completely unlike the one I just read on Axios, culled from Google News, in which Tesla “is still burning through $1 billion a quarter”.
At this point we want the "burning through $1 billion a quarter" story repeated continuously until October 31st so the resulting shock will be bigger. Everyone should be shouting from the rooftops about how Tesla is a company that burns cash with no end in sight, ever!
 
You mean useless. What exact skill does Buffett have that will help Tesla ?

Buffet is certainly due his respect. No one would be doing terrible if they took his top financial advice. All in on a van guard total stock market return fund. (And a tiny percentage in bonds)

I respect Buffet like I would a grandpa who hasn’t embraced the current state of things. Some of his advice is true to this day and some things just aren’t relevant anymore.

BRK.A/B essentially gave up on its own ability to innovate.

It sold off an aging dinosaur in IBM and threw its lot into AAPL.

Now AAPL just needs to take a big bite into TSLA so grandpa can get some exposure into something he is too afraid to take on his own.
 
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