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TSLA Market Action: 2018 Investor Roundtable

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KarenRei, if this settlement did not happen on Saturday I expect 200 was in the cards. Most everyone did.

If "most everyone" believed it, the stock would already have been at 200. Instead it didn't even break 260. And how can you not be used to these "short term freakouts that ignore the company's fundamentals" by now? :)

My usual recommendation to people: go back and look at the stock's value over the past year, all of the dips. What percentage of them can you even remember what people were freaking out over?
 
4D chess; Elon rejected the first settlement, but was later "persuaded" to accept the second deal (with its "harsher" terms, i.e. double the fine and 3 years as non-chairman instead of 2). The resulting drop in share price shakes out weak longs and fuels short seller's confirmation biases. Now we're back above $300 in time for Q3 and we can go back to focusing on fundamentals. Also, Elon can be seen (rightly so) as defiant towards the SEC. This too shall pass. He is still CEO and a member of the board so I think it all worked out pretty well in the end.

By rejecting the first offer, Elon was able to state, on record, that he rejected the SEC charges - had be accepted the deal he could not have done this as it's part of the settlement.

This, I believe, will throw out a lot of frivolous ambulance-chaser law-suits at the first hurdle.
 
20 of the 47 shares I bought on Friday were at $260,61 :) Well, should be, I haven't gotten a receipt yet. But I had a buy order for that, and the daily low was $260,55.

Just wish it had gotten lower, though. Fully expected it to. I had buys growing in magnitude every $5 of decline.
This may turn out to be the most profitable two trading days (Friday & today) in our fund's history. On Friday we closed all of our long-dated puts and bought $300 calls near the end of the day that expire Friday, purchased for under $2 each. By expiration, they could be up 10x or more. My SA readers are going to *sugar* when they see I am long Tesla on my next article later this week. ;)
 
This may turn out to be the most profitable two trading days (Friday & today) in our fund's history. On Friday we closed all of our long-dated puts and bought $300 calls near the end of the day that expire Friday, purchased for under $2 each. By expiration, they could be up 10x or more. My SA readers are going to *sugar* when they see I am long Tesla on my next article later this week. ;)

Hahaha, well done!

Are you sticking around for deliveries? I assume you'll be out after deliveries while evaluating what position you want for the Q3 report?
 
Days like Friday show how "Hold" is equally an action as "Sell" or "Buy". Or even harder. I myself almost pressed that "Sell" button multiple times. Thanks to this forum I didn't.

I didn't remotely contemplate selling. As I have stated many time, I have absolute faith in Elon - for better or worse!

Tesla's products are too compelling - look at the mad crush for people to get them at these delivery events...
 
For me, it's not even about Elon anymore. I love his "extremely aggressive moat-bridging" business strategies. But after a point, a company can run on its own momentum. Tesla's strategy is pretty locked in stone right now. And I'm not the sort of person who thinks "only Elon micromanaging everything can keep the company going".

Don't get me wrong, I strongly support him for CEO. But in my view, Tesla is locked into a great strategic path regardless. Unless they go under some sort of "conservative" management, I'll remain bullish on this stock. The day when they switch to a rent-keeping stance and paying dividends is where I completely exit the stock.
 
I don't know why so many people are like this. I didn't have the slightest inclination to sell. My only reaction was "major buying opportunity!"

Selling is the hard one for me. I always remind myself, if you're thinking, "There's no way I'd even think about buying at this price", maybe you should be considering selling.
Buy and the SP goes up, sell and the SP goes down. Buy and other people sell and you lose money, sell before other people sell and you make money, but might miss out if you forget to buy again when it is low. Long term it is going up, so hold also works, and very often much better, if diversified.

Many of us have the caveman instinctual programming that we should keep our food so that later we can eat. Selling is a strategic logical decision that we are mentally poor at making. We need to overcome that and look at the proper risk reward and outcome, and for short term needs sell high more often (also hard but not nearly as hard for me is not selling or buying for long term holdings and just holding; I find that relatively easy). I know that's what I failed to do in December and again after the "Am considering taking TSLA private at 420; funding secured" tweet at around $380 before the doubt kicked in not too soon afterward even before it was announced the deal would not go through (since my short term needs were I had too much margin AND I ended up buying a cheap car, and in retrospect I would have made more money on the price action). Then again, when the deal was announced as dead, I should have realized the resultant drop aferward and once again sold some. I ended up shoring up my position and getting spending money at lower prices even than that.

Remember, this premarket action is the good news upswing, so anybody with near term needs (i.e., high margin, needs to buy something, etc.) should seriously consider what the possibility of it rising further is. My approach if I had near term concerns would be to sell some on each good anticipation of good news expressed in the SP, so in other words, right now, then again later today if it goes up more, then again if we get hints of good numbers and it goes up more, and then again if the numbers come out and it goes up more, and as we know, each one of those "up" events is more rare than we think so none of them are promised, so we should look at the proper risk reward, rather than the caveman attitude of "I want to keep my food for later".

Again, each one of these is a self-fulfilling prophesy: those with short term needs would be afraid of the SP going down, and would sell, thus pushing the SP down to where they feared it would go, whereas if they had held or bought, the SP would have gone up, in aggregate numbers, so let's hope very few people read this post of mine and took it to heart simultaneously.
 
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Hahaha, well done!

Are you sticking around for deliveries? I assume you'll be out after deliveries while evaluating what position you want for the Q3 report?
My plan after Saturday is to sell half today and hold half until Friday. I need to evaluate the production/delivery report to figure out where to go next. My family thinks I am a genius based on consensus yesterday, but as I told them Saturday's announcement was pure luck, or brilliant on Musk's part as a short burn today. Take your pick. ;)
 
My plan after Saturday is to sell half today and hold half until Friday. I need to evaluate the production/delivery report to figure out where to go next. My family thinks I am a genius based on consensus yesterday, but as I told them Saturday's announcement was pure luck, or brilliant on Musk's part as a short burn today. Take your pick. ;)

Congrats, and welcome to the light side of the Force! :cool:
 
I posted it before and I'll post it again.
FtFwffE.jpg


He or she with balls'eth of steel shalt be rewarded.

The moral compass always seeks true north in the end.
 
If "most everyone" believed it, the stock would already have been at 200. Instead it didn't even break 260. And how can you not be used to these "short term freakouts that ignore the company's fundamentals" by now? :)

My usual recommendation to people: go back and look at the stock's value over the past year, all of the dips. What percentage of them can you even remember what people were freaking out over?


Yeah, shorts were not in the mix yet and the drumbeat of fud would have reached new heights come tomorrow morning. For once there would be a lot of truth to it. Tesla without Elon is not the Tesla that many longs invest and believe in. And when people are on margin or have 50% of their portfolio in one stock...

But, of course, you are right! Cheers!
 
In other reports I read over the weekend, I was surprised that few large short positions were not closed out on Friday. I saw the potential for good numbers and a Q3 profit as too great to hold puts any longer. They will surely be kicking themselves today.

It's the risk of being blinded by your ideology / point of view. It's the main reason I like having some shorts here and why I regularly check out what's going on over on Seeking Alpha. Hanging out too long in an echo chamber is dangerous.

I assume it's the same situation for you in reverse.
 
So, according to S3 Partners more than 33 million TSLA shares were still short at the end of Friday:

DoMkgvwXoAAvdEk.jpg:large


i.e. they are fully exposed to the current rally.

The recent peak in short interest was around 34 million TSLA shares - so only about 1 million net shares of shorts covered before the delivery report - about 3% covered, 97% remained short.

I apologize if I missed something very obvious, but his tweet has timestamp Friday 10 AM, so would that not be before the end of that day's trading ?

Ihor Dusaniwsky on Twitter
 
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