TSLA Market Action: 2018 Investor Roundtable

[nursebee]

a bit off topic, but what tunnel opens Dec 10?

 

[FS_FRA]

a bit off topic, but what tunnel opens Dec 10?

Boring Company test tunnel in LA.

 

[Artful Dodger]

Does anyone know the exact specs of the 2,170 cells?

This Redditer took a stab, but I think he's way off on the specs:

Tesla 21-70 battery cell specifications (calculated) • r/teslamotors

Further, Tesla tells us on their website that the Model 3 MR weighs 58 kg less than the LR. Assuming 66 grams per cell (from above),that much indicates about 880 fewer cells, but again that 66 g/cell spec is suspect.

HTH. Cheers!

 

[Yggdrasill]

This Redditer took a stab, but I think he's way off on the specs:

Tesla 21-70 battery cell specifications (calculated) • r/teslamotors

Further, Tesla tells us on their website that the Model 3 MR weighs 58 kg less than the LR. Assuming 66 grams per cell (from above),that much indicates about 880 fewer cells, but again that 66 g/cell spec is suspect.

HTH. Cheers!

Definitely off on the capacity. Using his estimate, the Model 3 LR would be close to 94 kWh...

My best estimates would be:

Length: 70 mm
Diameter: 21 mm
Volume: 24,250 mm^3
Weight: 67 grams
Voltage: 3.6-3.7 V
Charge: 4,892-5,028 mAh
Capacity: 18.1 Wh
Energy density: 746 Wh/l
Specific energy: 270 Wh/kg
Density: 2.76 kg/l

And my best estimates for pack sizes are:

LR: 96s46p, 4416 cells, ~79.9 kWh
MR: 96s37p, 3552 cells, ~64.3 kWh
SR: 96s32p, 3072 cells, ~55.6 kWh

We may not be able to get much closer to the exact cell specs, because there will be some production quality variance. Each pack will be slightly different.

 

[dqd88]

If i am holding 10 donuts and i loan you 5 how including handing the 5 donuts to you. How many donuts am i now holding?

Exactly. These are tangible products.
With stock, it's all digital. A shorted share isn't a piece of paper that's handed from John to Bob. It's cut and paste.
Net result is that total traded shares in marketplace is increased. Tell me if I'm wrong

 

[Lessmog]

I.e. the common current assumption appears to be the following battery pack layout (part taken from @BioSehnsucht's comment):

                 series parallel  total cells   capacity (est.)
standard range:  96s    31p       2,976         54.3 kWh
mid      range:  96s    38p       3,648         66.5 kWh
long     range:  96s    46p       4,416         80.5 kWh

But if the Standard Range battery pack is not 31p but 30p, then it would have one less module, gross capacity of 52.5 kWh - which could still have a net capacity of ~50kWh. That would result in even lower mass, and possibly higher margin by about +$225 at a $35k price point with $130/kWh pack level costs, which is about +0.7%.

That would also put the 'mid range' option at exactly halfway between SR and LR, cell count wise.

Let me just note that 31 is prime, and we know from Rickard's teardown that there are an even number of modules. On the other hand, modules are in series.
32 is a sweet number, no? But as you say, 30 for standard brings the mid to the middle, so ...
Anyway, great analyses from you, always!

 

[dqd88]

The SR might get dropped. Depends on demand. Competition is coming on line. EV world continues to change, Tesla may continue to change even faster.

Seems most EVERY 2nd time buyer (current owners) tells us to buy the biggest battery you can afford. right?
What is the sweet spot? 30-80% charge yield longest battery [least degradation] life and quickest SuperCharger charging, right?

Please, anyone with actual experience can run the numbers and tell us how you'd compare SR [Standard Range] to MR [Medium Range].

Tesla advantage: they build to actual orders

I'd be completely fine w/ SR. I only drive about 20 miles / day on average.

 

[WentOffGrid]

"Cathodic E-Coating" is a process similar to powder paint coating, where electrostatic charge creates a high quality layer

Minor clarification... e-coating is not electrostatic like powder coating. There are no high voltages (like 6-10kV for powder) involved. It is more like anodizing or plating. Fairly high currents in the rectifiers for e-coating (all DC) unlike powder application where those power supplies are in mA (milliamps).

 

[bhtooefr]

FWIW, it wasn't part of some of our investment theses. I'm on record as saying full self-driving won't happen for at *least* five years more, maybe decades -- it's just much harder than people think it is. I'm even on record as saying that Tesla will have to refund the FSD deposits. This limits the amount of money they'll have to refund, so that's good.

Old post but I just caught up - I basically treat EAP/FSD as a very low valuation in my own investment thesis. I invest because of the automotive division being the only automaker that actually seems to really get EVs (Volkswagen is in a distant 2nd in this thesis), and because of Tesla Energy. I don't value EAP/FSD as zero, because the hype around it is boosting automotive sales, but I basically consider it as marketing for automotive, with low likelihood of FSD happening.

New Ford commercial is trolling Tesla. Even uses paint it black.

...and this kind of thing is why I own a January 2021 put against Ford.

 

[vigleik]

I'm not questioning whether or not they are under this control and I can't disagree with that. In this example, I'm not looking at voting rights, dividends, or anything other than trading volume, which does affect price.

I'm simply illustrating that there are, from a standpoint of supply/demand, more shares on the market to trade. Is that true?
And if so, is that dilutive?

"if he decides to sell them"
And what if he doesn't? Try to stick w/ the example. You could make infinite # of "what if's" to avoid the point I'm trying to make/understand (ie dilution and downward pressure on SP).

As a mathematician it figuratively drives me insane when people argue past each other because they are using different definitions.

It would be helpful if the two of you could agree what “share” means. Once you do I think you will actually agree with each other. For example, you could call them physical shares and virtual shares.

If Sam, or whatever his name was, owns 10 shares and lends out 5 he owns 5 physical shares but 10 virtual shares. His brokerage might tell him that he owns 10 shares, but they are referring to virtual shares. As far as Tesla is concerned, only physical shares count, and Sam can only vote his 5 physical shares.

There is no such thing as a negative number of physical shares, but a short-seller owns a negative number of virtual shares. The number of physical shares and the number of virtual shares both add up to the total number of shares issued by the company, but the number of virtual shares held by longs can be greater.

Short-selling is not dilutive because dilutive is a technical term that refers to increasing the number of physical shares. But of course selling, by longs or shorts, tends to decrease the price. By an equal amount, all else being equal. (If the short-sellers for example pick a low-volume time of the day to drive down the price then all else is not equal.)

Is that all clear?

 

[avoigt]

Exactly. These are tangible products.
With stock, it's all digital. A shorted share isn't a piece of paper that's handed from John to Bob. It's cut and paste.
Net result is that total traded shares in marketplace is increased. Tell me if I'm wrong

Virtually the amount of shares may increase but the more important question is if the amount of shares that can be traded at a given time do increase and my understanding is that is not the case.

So it looks like more shares are around but the same amount of shares ( 170 m) can be traded at a given point in time. Therefore the effect on shares traded at a given time are not impacted.

Given that you can lend a lot of shares pretty cheap you have more ability to manipulate the SP though. Therefore shorting is in my view evil and should not be allowed as it does NOT help to determine the true value in a company but manipulates it.

Its a vicious instrument and I have no understanding that the SEC does not bann it. Clearly its bad in any case for a normal retail investor. Just my opinion...

 

[Boomer19]

TSLA - Tesla Inc Shareholders - CNNMoney.com

this looks fake, or off

nvm
i see brian’s post with clarification

 

[mutle]

But I haven't been able to find any image of a Fremont paint or pre-treatment bath though - only of spray robots applying paint layers.

I remembered seeing it in the 2013 Model S docu:

at 39:45, they mention it's a treatment ahead of the paint process and mention electro coating as well as a baking process specifically.

 

[gora321]

Good morning/afternoon after nice weekend

Sorry mods, start will be a bit out of topic.
Title of this thought would be THE NOSE.
Yes this small sense sitting in the middle of the face and mostly doing nothing. Well not so small in my case.
Someone my argue that we smell with our brains. True. But let us focus on sense we are calling the nose.

The story goes like this:
It was beautiful sunny Saturday. One of the last opportunity to ride my bicycle before colder days that are coming to Europe. I have two bikes possibilities to chose MTB (mountain) and street bike. I like them both but for colder day I rather use MTB. I live in a town with 120k inhabitants so I need 15min to ride out of town to reach the forest in surrounding hills. I go there to recharge my batteries. My wife says that I'm sport addicted. I admit, but that's another story.

The October's forest is beautiful. Leaves still on with multiple colours that only nature can play with. When you spend some time there you start to smell leaves, humus, moisture, mushrooms mixed with fresh air. You fully bread not only because of riding tempo, but because you can! My nose is calibrating with air freshness for which I'm very happy.

Trouble starts when you are coming back to civilisation. First you smell farms, than one guy starting fire burning branches of trees, then you smell heating from wood, oil. You can feel PM10 particles. You can easily detect fumes from diesel, gasoline engine. If you are lucky you can ride after an old engine that consumes engine oil. On buss station you can smoke for free if you want.

When you are riding a bike you change air masses very quickly so the smell differences are very noticeable.
OMG what we are doing?! To the planet, to ourselves.

I'm not only sport addicted but I'm also Tesla addicted.
Which pictures went trough my head?
Now pay attention to those noses:

I could add also pictures of other global warming deniers.
Are these noses work? Do they need some checking as basic sense? Maybe some maintenance?

 

[mongo]

But if the Standard Range battery pack is not 31p but 30p, then it would have one less module, gross capacity of 52.5 kWh - which could still have a net capacity of ~50kWh.

Let me just note that 31 is prime, and we know from Rickard's teardown that there are an even number of modules. On the other hand, modules are in series.
32 is a sweet number, no? But as you say, 30 for standard brings the mid to the middle, so ...
Anyway, great analyses from you, always!

31 is parallel cell count in a group. 96 is the series count (number of cell groups). Modules usually (to me) refers to the two long and two short cell group assemblies. Series count should be even since there are 2 long and 2 short packs.

No reason an SR pack can't have a smaller or odd cell group size, make the groups narrower, and maintain the same pack voltage with the 96 groups in series configuration.

 

[kbM3]

I.e. the common current assumption appears to be the following battery pack layout (part taken from @BioSehnsucht's comment):

                 series parallel  total cells   capacity (est.)
standard range:  96s    31p       2,976         54.3 kWh
mid      range:  96s    38p       3,648         66.5 kWh
long     range:  96s    46p       4,416         80.5 kWh

But if the Standard Range battery pack is not 31p but 30p, then it would have one less module, gross capacity of 52.5 kWh - which could still have a net capacity of ~50kWh. That would result in even lower mass, and possibly higher margin by about +$225 at a $35k price point with $130/kWh pack level costs, which is about +0.7%.

That would also put the 'mid range' option at exactly halfway between SR and LR, cell count wise.

Assuming 2.5 kWh fixed buffer:
78 kWh usable yields 334 miles epa
64 kWh usable would yield (64/78 * 334) = 274 miles epa (ignoring efficiency gain from weight loss).

Isn't it possible that Tesla is using less derating for the MR and targeting maybe 62 kWh usable = 265 miles epa range?

 

[WentOffGrid]

(Pre) Market Action - -
Smallish volume, but interesting cap at the top with 262.0000 as a ruler-flat number.
And then a quick punch in the face to go back up when some biggish sale took it down to 258.0100
Not enough market knowledge to say what went on, but it is interesting to watch this sort of fight at the low volumes.

 

[anthonyj]

(Pre) Market Action - -
Smallish volume, but interesting cap at the top with 262.0000 as a ruler-flat number.
And then a quick punch in the face to go back up when some biggish sale took it down to 258.0100
Not enough market knowledge to say what went on, but it is interesting to watch this sort of fight at the low volumes.

This stock won’t make a huge move up unless there is some crazy good news. Shorts control the price.

 

[Tiger]

How government policies and taxpayer money have helped Elon Musk and Tesla

They should have mentioned the subsidies given to fossil industries, and the people paying premium prices for TSLA stock

 

[gora321]

Audi's electric SUV faces four-week delay because of software issue

Hello Bloomberg...tracker needed here!