TSLA Market Action: 2018 Investor Roundtable

[2virgule5]

All joking aside, if Andrew Left wants to join the longs for the long term, I'd be glad to have him. Just not sure if that's his intention or rather a pump and dump...

His intention may have been even more down to earth: he tried a M3P, so obviously wanted one, and found no other way to hide it!
Make no mistake though, he’ll short again the hell out of TSLA when a better moment comes.

 

[Highway2Heel]

Tons of margin calls...


I was watching a piece by Citron’s Andrew Left and doing some research and it kinda clicked.

Andrew said he wouldn’t be shorting TSLA into earnings since there were [paraphrasing] better shorts out there now.

Separately, the whole topic of over-leveraging was discussed. A Fidelity friend has mentioned that they’ll set stop loss like orders on over-leveraged accounts, during the day, once ample notice has been given for the client to do so themself. TSLA started chumming the depths last week and cratered on Monday and, well, today is 4 days later...

Andrew provided a tell a few days ago...

...for the board’s edification, I watched and then posted about this Andrew Left interview back on October 11.

 

[omarsultan]

You will wait for a really long time before Chinese competitors gain manufacturing and chemical engineering know-how to compete.

They don't need to. China simply needs to dangle access to their markets as incentive for a "technology sharing" agreement with a current manufacturer and simultaneously ban other manufacturers that are not willing to play ball like they did with LG Chem and Samsung SDI last year.

 

[Brian121]

What's that gal's name that said she just initiated short and TSLA promptly dropped a few bucks a couple of weeks ago?

 

[Ulmo]

I just rolled a portion of (profitable) out of the money close to expiry TSLA call options into TSLA equities with today's nice price action.

I.e., deleveraged time.

 

[Krugerrand]

IMHO: It's not the set-up, it's the conclusion.

The set-up was all the FUD spread previously to drive the stock price down so that they could exit their short position at $250 and go long *just* before the earnings report.

Forgive me if I suggest that this entire move might have been preplanned by Citron as their exit strategy -- the report goes to some pains to try to claim that it wasn't preplanned, but, y'know, if you *were* planning a manipulative exit strategy from a short position, this *is* the one you'd want to use.

Not at all questioning any of that. But you’re living in dreamland if you think this guy will stay long from here on out. He’s a scumbag. He’ll go short again at some point, mark my words. His spots haven’t changed, he just put a coat on.

 

[WentOffGrid]

Finally punched through 290 after a big battle

Almost 13M shares traded! Great live show...

 

[Ulmo]

They don't need to. China simply needs to dangle access to their markets as incentive for a "technology sharing" agreement with a current manufacturer and simultaneously ban other manufacturers that are not willing to play ball like they did with LG Chem and Samsung SDI last year.

While I think it's bad for Chinese to steal USA secrets and market capabilities, when I consider the situation of Tesla, I look at the laggardness of introduction of modern electric vehicle technology over the last century, and our (Tesla's, USA's, society's) willingness to share the advancement of electric vehicle capabilities (consistent with Tesla's public patent actions, and in order to catch up with where the world's transportation cleanness should have been especially considering we knew of electric propulsion a century ago), which puts this EV technology in a more agreeable category when it comes to technology sharing. While I'd be a little more precious about some of the glass, solar, and autonomous tech, the basic propulsion and battery tech Tesla has I'm more willing to see shared with China, so I've been fairly comfortable with my interpretation of an optimistic view of the technology sharing arrangement Tesla has and is making with China. Of course, I'm not privy to the exact details. But generally speaking, I have a positive view of this particular situation with Tesla having a factory there, with respect to intellectual property. Having said that, generally speaking, every company must guard itself, and protect its products from attack of any sort, and identify which aspects it needs to protect most and protect those appropriately; that is still true, so I think there's still going to be something fulfilling a role of security over there.

 

[Artful Dodger]

292

292.01 USD +31.06 (11.90%)
Oct. 23, 2:18 p.m. EDT · Disclaimer

 

[X Fan]

What's that gal's name that said she just initiated short and TSLA promptly dropped a few bucks a couple of weeks ago?

Fahmi Quadir

Bloomberg - Are you a robot?

 

[eye.surgeon]

On the one hand, I think he's right for anyone who actually does investing research (I really dislike mutual funds), but on the other hand, mutual funds are usually the only option your employer allows, so it's basically a useless suggestion. Sort of like suggesting that we shouldn't use dollars to pay our US taxes.

You should visit bogleheads.org sometime...

 

[Starno]

Hopefully it's not a "buy the rumor, sell the news" kind of scenario.

 

[Foghat]

They don't need to. China simply needs to dangle access to their markets as incentive for a "technology sharing" agreement with a current manufacturer and simultaneously ban other manufacturers that are not willing to play ball like they did with LG Chem and Samsung SDI last year.

I think all product development will happen in the US. By the time Tesla goes to production, it is “open IP” and expected to be copied. Elon has publicly stated that patent protection is ineffective.

This puts the intellectual property advantage, no matter what IP environment in China, on being innovative, improving on what is expected to be copied by competitors. China would have to have the same pace of innovation to out compete Tesla.

I feel Tesla will be the big winner in China after the tariff war is over. They already are, but tremendously so, since China’s national policy is to go electric and have a massive solar footprint as well. (don’t sleep on Tesla Energy in China.... shhh, don’t tell anyone).

 

[Bobbyducati]

Hopefully it's not a "buy the rumor, sell the news" kind of scenario.

i think im dumping a few shares if we get to 300 before tomorrow evening.

 

[Krugerrand]

Here’s the thing about Citron and Andrew Left. This is one of the biggest defections we have ever had in the TSLA short world. He’s not just a TSLA short who’s become a TSLA long. Rather, he’s an ideological TSLA short with a large following who’s become a TSLA long. This is important to note, because it is exactly this kind of defection that is needed to mental the shorts. In a way, one of their leaders need to jump ship to the other side in order for others to do the same.

In war language, this is one of the top generals of the enemy who didn’t decide to commit suicide, but rather he decided to join the other side because he says the other side is going to win and it’s obvious.

More thoughts on this, DaveT on Chatstarter: "Has Andrew Left just started a mass exodus of..."

Meh. He’s not to be believed until he’s long TSLA for the next 10 years regardless of what Tesla does or does not do. Until then he’s a backstabbing piece of crap. He doesn’t even have any honor among thieves.

 

[omarsultan]

While generally I hate Chinese stealing USA secrets and market capabilities, the laggardness of introduction of modern electric vehicle technology over the last century and our (Tesla's, USA's, society's) willingness to share the advancement of electric vehicle capabilities puts this EV technology in a more agreeable category when it comes to technology sharing. While I'd be a little more precious about some of the glass, solar, and autonomous tech, the basic propulsion and battery tech Tesla has I'm more willing to see shared with China, so I've been fairly comfortable with my interpretation of an optimistic view of the technology sharing arrangement with China. Of course, I'm not privy to the exact details. But generally speaking, I have a positive view of this particular situation with Tesla having a factory there, with respect to intellectual property. Having said that, generally speaking, every company must guard itself, and protect its products from attack of any sort, and identify which aspects it needs to protect most and protect those appropriately.

I was not meaning to imply anything necessarily nefarious in China's actions in this case, simply that they did not have to do organic R&D, they can use their market position as a lever. I do agree that, in this case, having the technologies and capabilities propagate rapidly is not a bad thing.

 

[EV forever]

Quick question,
Since we are above +10% does that trigger some sort of restriction on short trading? Just wondering how bad this could get for those ‘poor poor helpless’ shorts blindly following Citron in the past.

 

[MP3Mike]

Quick question,
Since we are above +10% does that trigger some sort of restriction on short trading? Just wondering how bad this could get for those ‘poor poor helpless’ shorts blindly following Citron in the past.

Nope only a drop of 10% in a day triggers that. If the 10% had been in a very short time period all trading in TSLA would have been paused for a period of time before resuming to let people collect their thoughts.

 

[ZachShahan]

Word of caution: the propaganda and actions of this individual as well as others was intent on making Tesla go bankrupt. I’m far from allowing them to get a pass, which only incentivizes them to continue criminal activity in the future. They must be marginalized not celebrated in my opinion. Just this weekend, I saw a short hedge fund manager post multiple fake customer tweets as well as fire tweet with the intention of making people believe Tesla’s spontaneously caught on fire. It’s just so blantant and it’s to no benefit to allow this to become acceptable.

CNBC did extended report that new car sales are down. Even mentioned BMW massive recalls. Did not even mention Tesla, an American success story and incredible sales growth story right now. Up at times over 10% today.

Not once.

We must marginalize those sources that continue to omit reality. We must promote those sources and individuals that bring us real, non propaganda information. Everyone will be better for it.

Have to agree. But just to be clear, you mean the short seller?

Here's the full letter (actually using 4 of our charts): https://citronresearch.com/wp-conte...n-on-Tesla-story-too-compelling-to-ignore.pdf

 

[humbaba]

Audi stated plans to have the new etron COV by "mid 2019", with the current A3 etron continuing to be sold. VW e-golf will continue as well. Nobody's talking M3 numbers here in NA but it won't be crumbs by end of 2019 IMHO.

I admit I don't have the citation handy, but the last I saw from Audi was that they would begin producing units in 2019 if there was strong demand. Depending on how fast they can actually ramp production up, that seems to me deliveries in 2020 at the earliest.

But the Audi e-tron was what you were thinking of?

[edited to add: somehow missed you tossing in the e-golf (really? the one that sells in the double digits? that hardly seems relevant to, well, anything). The A3 is more notable than the eGolf, but barely so (they are on track to sell fewer units than last year). I do agree the M3 won't be breadcrumbs as it is the top selling EV, but it isn't european...]