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TSLA Market Action: 2018 Investor Roundtable

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I have an eye Dr appt at 6 PM. Weighing cancelling and risk vision loss in order to listen to the 6:30 call instead.

Decisions, decisions...

You could always go to the eye doctor and listen to the call at the same time. He will need your eyes to be available for checking, how you use your ears is entirely up to you!;)
 
Ok everyone, all at one time now:

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This is just such a nice way of putting it (ending paragraph of the letter):

As we have transformed from a 100,000 per year unit carmaker into a ~340,000 unit per year carmaker, our earnings profile has flipped dramatically. Sufficient Model 3 profitability was critical to make our business sustainable – something many argued would be impossible to achieve. Due to the ingenuity and incredible hard work of our team combined with an innovative vehicle design and manufacturing strategy, we have achieved total auto gross margin of ~25%.

Until this recent Geely funded growth, Volvo was a stable ~350k units per year carmaker.
 
Until this recent Geely funded growth, Volvo was a stable ~350k units per year carmaker.

Right. The numbers are getting to where no one can ignore them anymore. They have a YoY growth in automotive sale revenue of 158%. Will it be 2020 or 2021 that they sell over a million cars? With still >20% gross margin? It's unheard of. It's as if Ferrari mass produced cars.
 
So my key number is model 3 gross margin:

20% Q3 and guided for same in Q4. I find that neutral to negative honestly.

Everything else I have to sort out.

They state it's due to lower cost options on NAmerican cars, so that's logical, but will be offset by further efficiency gains.

Once Europe starts deliveries, margin will increase again.

Tesla had guided to 15% margin for Q3 and 20% margin for Q4. So they are well ahead of schedule and definitely a positive.
 
Interesting..
Ihor Dusaniwsky on Twitter

Let's see .. $2.3bn in CB's convertible at almost $360 ... $TSLA stock price is $68 below conversion price .. I don't have a CB Delta Hedging black box like I did at M.S. but I'd say somewhere in the neighborhood of $1.5-$2.0 billion depending on the greeks used (vol, gamma, etc)

If tesla has cash at hand to pay off the convertible or SP > 360, what happens to the hedge(Short positions)? .. needs to be closed out right?
Can Anyone explain this in detail?
 
"In order to significantly increase the affordability of Model 3, we have decided to accelerate our manufacturing timeline in China. We are aiming to bring portions of Model 3 production to China during 2019 and to progressively increase the level of localization through local sourcing and manufacturing."

While I like this, it also worries me some. What happened the last time they accelerated manufacturing this much? Model 3 production hell.

The saving grace here is that they are probably far enough along on fixes/improvements that they can just copy-paste the best of what they have now. So it shouldn't be nearly as bad. But I'm not sure they can get a cell line up that fast, so maybe they will still make the cells at GF1 and ship them to China to start? (I sort of recall that for the EV incentives there the batteries have to be made in China, so probably not.)
 
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If tesla has cash at hand to pay off the convertible or SP > 360, what happens to the hedge(Short positions)? .. needs to be closed out right?
Can Anyone explain this in detail?

It isn't if they have enough, but when they pay it off the hedge position is no longer needed and should be closed out, that will be huge...
 
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