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TSLA Market Action: 2018 Investor Roundtable

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Just watched a “bulls vs bears” on fox bussiness. Hmm. These people just can’t grasp the concept that Tesla is making cars. This was sickening the level of disgust these talking heads had for the company. Wow. I kinda thought Tesla was leading The world into a new era. ‍ I thought the doj stuff was old news, they acted like it was breaking and seemed confused on basic facts. I’m with Ellison on this one...

Edit: emoji change
 
Despite Fred's foibles (really not happy with him kicking Elon off the platform for a few days :(), I'm sticking with Electrek. I prefer the layout, speed of going to press, presentation and selection of articles compared to Cleantechnica and Insideevs. Most importantly, as I don't read about Tesla anywhere else (except the odd one linked here), I feel it is important to understand the mind of a hardcore shorter. Honestly, Fred is as close as I want to get....

For those that haven't got my British sense of humour up to now - I will explain:









Does that make sense?
You may need one of those invisible pen thingies....
If you couldn't read it, it had something to do with it being a funny old game. Funny but not necessarily humorous. Or the other way around.

Fair enough - I'm a bit of an outlier in the UK too... This is what Brexit is doing to us... Mad dogs and Englishmen are still reading Electrek. Anyway, enough of me, time for my kippers and marmalade breakfast.

I decided to not go to Fred's site anymore. There are several other sites I can read instead. What Fred did is a small thing but reflects character.
 
I decided to not go to Fred's site anymore. There are several other sites I can read instead. What Fred did is a small thing but reflects character.
I never went to his site except when linked to it from here. But I guess I'll stop doing that now too.

I hope people will at least stop giving him referrals now. He doesn't deserve any. The fact that he has gotten a free $200k car and still had the temerity to complain like an whiny entitled brat tonight should completely end any goodwill he ever gets from now on. People need to spread the word, stop giving this guy referrals!
 
I saw Gasparino on TV making a comment about the typical TSLA short, sitting in front of his computer screen in his mom's basement in Toledo.

Yeah, things have changed. And it has gotten personal for Gasparino.
I wonder if he feels like he was mislead by shorts who he trusted, and having previously backed their claims his integrity / honor / whatever has been damaged, because he trusted them to be truthful with him. If that's the case, it would explain the relatively savage comments that seem to indicate he has flipped positions - he's pissed at those that pulled the wool over his eyes.
 
I never went to his site except when linked to it from here. But I guess I'll stop doing that now too.

I hope people will at least stop giving him referrals now. He doesn't deserve any. The fact that he has gotten a free $200k car and still had the temerity to complain like an whiny entitled brat tonight should completely end any goodwill he ever gets from now on. People need to spread the word, stop giving this guy referrals!

I totally agree with shutting down "free roadster freddy"
maybe rebates should be back dated to the day after freddy got his car.
trailhound
 
The actual reality is that plenty of people grumbled about it but none of them was Fred Lambert. It was when Fred "Free Roadster" Lambert complained about it on his web site that all of a sudden it blew up into a huge crisis that required Elon's immediate attention. I didn't see you making up a Twitter hashtag and harrassing Elon on Twitter for the little guys who bought the AWD and the white seats. Where was your anger then? Where's the justice for the little guys? Why do only the rich guys who bought the P get a refund? Isn't this really just an example of the rich always winning and the non-rich losing?

Fred knows how to click bait and what horse to jump on to maximize his own personal utility. Though I think the reversal was coming regardless. Change was too drastic, too soon and no good reason offered that the car owners could accept.

I have white seats but didn’t complain due to magnitude.
Degree of change and timing of change matters.
I’m still not even complaining for myself. I’m mainly outraged over no balls at Tesla to stand up to decision makers when they dive into the abyss.
Since I value my TSLA more than my cars I need Tesla to not f the owners over.

Funny how it’s accepted when Elon says the same thing but no one in TSLA land cares when an owner says it.
 
I decided to not go to Fred's site anymore. There are several other sites I can read instead. What Fred did is a small thing but reflects character.

I personally started to get a bad vibe about 6 months ago. I get the feeling all the media attention has gotten to his head, and it is just all about the money(clicks).

teslarati and cleantechnica are all you need. And if they miss something you'll read it here anyway ;)
 
The cost of making a car is higher when you are making 4k of them a week in comparison to when you are making 6k of them a week.

Pricing a car is going to be based upon what it costs you to make and what you think buyers will be willing to pay.

You need more willing buyers when you are making 6k of them a week then when you are only making 4k of them a week.

It is unreasonable of the earlier buyers to expect prices to remain constant especially for a small volume manufacturor who is cash constrained and ramping production.
 
But since it is newly issued shares it really shouldn't make any difference in the market.

Thats correct but you watch Monday a founder and CEO again buying an additional share of his company. He owns a lot already and decided to add.

Its a sign of confidence in the future of Tesla and a confirmation that the SP in his view is undervalued. A good deal for Tesla and Elon.

So although the $20 m have no direct effect in the stock market Monday it will be reported about and investors may consider to follow Elon and invest too.

Elon does invest into Tesla because he wants to make money with it to finance Elon Town on Mars. So it makes business sense in his view as a good return on investment.

If you would have followed all investments Buffet made over the decades in public traded companies even after the news broke and the SP had a run already you would have made a fortune.

So, will his investment will have an effect on the SP? Directly no - indirectly yes.
 
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Chiming in for the first time in forever.

After watching the video being posted around here of Larry Ellison of Oracle speaking about Elon Musk, Tesla, and SpaceX...I'm convinced that we will soon be looking at him as the new chairman.

He is a figure that Elon Musk would respect given his success. He is a figure of immense wealth and influence. He is a person capable of being on the same level as Elon Musk and would not become overshadowed. He isn't a meek individual who would be overwhelmed by Elon. Finally, his presence at the company and his ability to effect the company will ultimately compel him to buy even more shares.

Larry Ellison could become a shareholder with a stake as large as Elon's with relative ease.

Incredible development.

If we end up with Larry Ellison as Chairman and get Gary Cohn on the board somehow too...fricken magical.
 
Why would there be a huge squeeze? Wouldn’t institutions be selling as the stock rises above their internal targets?

Also retail longs for that matter?

I’m over-invested in TSLA and I would definitely be selling some if it crosses $500. Maybe even $400.

The question, I guess, is what their internal targets are. I tend to use a time target rather than a price target, so I wouldn't sell at all. Musk probably won't sell no matter what, and ditto JB.

S&P and index funds don't have price targets and won't sell.

Institutions with price targets would, of course, sell when they reached their targets. What are their targets, though?

Ron Baron's target is over $1000, if I remember correctly. For example. Likewise, I suspect the target prices of the Saudis and Tencent are very, very high.

I attempted to make a list of which institutions seemed to be "uberbulls", plus the ones who don't have price targets (like index funds) and this was how I calculated the "not available for sale in the near term" share count. My guess regarding retail investor price targets may be wrong (I assumed most were uberbulls).
 
We get it, your thesis is Tesla is just another car maker, and a bad one while at it.

That has been debunked for like a thousand times in this forum.

And you glaringly ignore the competitive advantage of Tesla just being a car maker!

For crying out loud Tesla is the only brand whose cars know when and how to turn themselves off!

Good grief... This is not true.

You talk about P/E ratios or GAAP accounting in this thread, and people think you’re a hater.
 
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I have white seats but didn’t complain due to magnitude.
Degree of change and timing of change matters.
I’m still not even complaining for myself. I’m mainly outraged over no balls at Tesla to stand up to decision makers when they dive into the abyss.

In Elon's defense:
  • Elon's motivation was to give something to new Performance owners now that Tesla is wildly profitable,
  • free unlimited Supercharging was internally expensed at about $3,000, so a it's a pretty high value option, and if you use it frequently it can be worth over $10,000 for the lifetime of the vehicle,
  • even if you don't make use of it it increases reuse value if you can transfer it within your family,
  • so to Tesla insiders, who are aware of free Supercharging's true value, it was an honest mistake to make.
  • Fred Labert is an insecure guy constantly striving for attention, with low journalistic ethics: I personally reported to him a serious math error in one of his Tesla production articles a few months ago, which error materially affected the sensationalist headline and made the headline false. He rephrased the paragraph to make it technically correct but didn't change the headline, didn't reply or acknowledge the feedback and didn't even add an "edited" note to the article. The Q3 delivery report also falsified the headline.
  • Elon on the other hand quicly acknowledged the Performance pricing mistake despite Fred's trolling and took corrective action.
  • Note how the update to Fred's trolling article is only minimal, you have to read through the same display of outrage to get to the two sentences that outline that Elon accepted responsibility for the mistake and took corrective action. Fred, in his update, also complains about his own readers for disagreeing with him.
I only read Electrek these days as I read Business Insider: with an expectation of low journalistic standards and with an expectation of frequent displays of insecurity and petty grudges by Fred.

Elon is not infallible and he and the Tesla team makes mistakes, but in terms of integrity, listening to readers/customers and empathy Elon is several classes above Fred.
 
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I would prefer to avoid a squeeze and have a nice gentle and steady rise. A short squeeze will fund a new generation of shorts, or give the Koch’s a new entry point to encourage other traders to come on board. A steady rise will just slowly bleed the shorts and let earnings and growth drive valuations. Tesla can be generating 2 billion a quarter a year from now and over 3 billion per quarter in 2020. For a company growing 70% over several years, 12 billion in earnings could be worth 200 billion market cap. Who needs a squeeze, when a nice long hug will do.
I actually agree, but I want to work out all the scenarios.
 
Fred Lambert is an insecure guy constantly striving for attention, with low journalistic ethics: I personally reported to him a serious math error in one of his Tesla production articles a few months ago, which error materially affected the sensationalist headline and made the headline false. He rephrased the paragraph to make it technically correct but didn't change the headline, didn't reply or acknowledge the feedback and didn't even add an "edited" note to the article. The Q3 delivery report also falsified the headline.

Unfortunately, this is true. It's a pity since he digs around for the best breaking news about Tesla, so I still read his site. But he shadowbanned KarenRei for disagreeing with him (she was proven right), and he shadowbanned me for correcting him on the meaning of Registered Capital in China (even though he corrected the article -- but without an "edited" note). He's very insecure. I don't know why he's so insecure -- he doesn't need to be. A good journalist can graciously take a correction on a breaking story. Fred for some reason can't.

He's done it to you too? That's three of us.

I only read Electrek these days as I read Business Insider: with an expectation of low journalistic standards and with an expectation of frequent displays of insecurity and petty grudges by Fred.
Sadly true. I hope he gets more secure and starts showing some more integrity. I just find his behavior... sad. Self-sabotaging, really.
 
The question, I guess, is what their internal targets are. I tend to use a time target rather than a price target, so I wouldn't sell at all. Musk probably won't sell no matter what, and ditto JB.

S&P and index funds don't have price targets and won't sell.

Institutions with price targets would, of course, sell when they reached their targets. What are their targets, though?

Ron Baron's target is over $1000, if I remember correctly. For example. Likewise, I suspect the target prices of the Saudis and Tencent are very, very high.

I attempted to make a list of which institutions seemed to be "uberbulls", plus the ones who don't have price targets (like index funds) and this was how I calculated the "not available for sale in the near term" share count. My guess regarding retail investor price targets may be wrong (I assumed most were uberbulls).

Rons price target is 20 times $300 = $ 6,000
 
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