TSLA Market Action: 2018 Investor Roundtable

[TradingInvest]

Quoth the Raven on Twitter
Speaking of echo chamber, I got you guys the other side. When you have some time to spare, you can listen to this Qtr podcast featuring the toothbrush guy.
I am having a really good laugh listening.

Joke aside, his short thesis is mainly based on competition now, as in “Tesla cars are the first gen EV, they are the palm pilot when blackberry comes out, they’re the blackberry when iPhone comes out, etc.”, which won’t hold much longer when those cars actually comes out. Wonder what he’ll say when that happens, or will he cover beforehand.

Be careful about this QTR guy. I learned about him through the Herbalife episode. In 2015 I went long HLF just above $15, I had valid reasons to show it's quite safe with a price target of $100. There was 6 fold upside. QTR wrote a lot of convincing articles to show why HLF will go to zero. I argued with him on forums just like we argue about Tesla. I don't know if he is just a random guy who shorted HLF and bashing it, or he was paid by a big short to bash HLF. Some unfortunate longs quit after reading his articles.

Long story short, these guys lack proper judgement, but they are very good at writing. Tesla is a buy and hold, high chance to see 10~20 fold, don't be fooled by these guys. But understand pullbacks could happen from time to time. I just keep saving cash to add more shares down the road.

Shorts want us to believe other EVs will compete with Tesla's EVs, in reality we know EVs are getting much better than ICEs, price is reaching the tipping point. The EV market will be huge for every producer. Tesla said they don't worry about EV competition in the next 10 years, which I think is valid. There are 1.5 billion ICE cars waiting to be replaced. After 10 years, we can re-evaluate the situation.

 

[Fact Checking]

I've seen discussion of Tesla inclusion in the S&P 500 around here before. Aren't we a ways off according to rules?

No, that's wrong, and is based on a widespread mis-reading of the S&P 500 inclusion rules that includes common sources like Investopedia - and I believe there's a separate TMC thread for it somewhere.

If Tesla continues posting positive earnings they'll be announced to be part of the S&P 500 next May, with the inclusion effective in June. This will be 100% clear early May with the release of the Q1 financials. It was already 90% certain after the Q3 results.

 

[Cherry Wine]

$366! Volume is solid too. 4.5M shares three hours into session.

 

[Right_Said_Fred]

Nahhh

MM's probably need to accumulate shares before allowing it to rocket higher. Also, just now getting reports that no shares are avail to borrow. That's bullish imo. Squeezy squeezy?

I’m glad I can say I was wrong and you were totally right

 

[JoaoD]

There may or may not be something going on with the market, specially with shorts being forced to cover since some brokers seem to not have shares available to short.
But if we look back one year, Tsla was trading at this prices in the anticipation of the Model 3 ramp. Today, the ramp is confirmed (and also the margins) and Tesla will now soon have another factory starting production of the Model 3 (and perhaps assemble Model S and X) in about 6 months in China. So it is logical that the stock goes up from here without any more news. It may not happen today, nor this year, but will happen soon.

 

[SOULPEDL]

Oh, maybe this is a large short?

 

[ZachF]

Damn, go for a walk down the street for some lunch and by the time I'm back it's over $365!

 

[Nocturnal]

367!

 

[Mkorpal]

I’ve got some sell orders around the ATH. Thinking I may need to bump them up, or I might be selling tomorrow!

 

[mickificki]

The negative effect from that article was quite moderate. The big drop came when Benzinga published an apparently misunderstood headline I discussed in this post: TSLA Market Action: 2018 Investor Roundtable

Damn, go for a walk down the street for some lunch and by the time I'm back it's over $365!

go back outside!

 

[humbaba]

I'm liking this >2% lead over NASDAQ. Keep it going!

 

[humbaba]

Damn, go for a walk down the street for some lunch and by the time I'm back it's over $365!

shoo! we're heading down now!

j/k (about the shooing, unfortunately it did peak , but we can hope for another break out )

 

[NicoV]

Andrew Left was at least willing to change his views based on new data, and turned from a Tesla short into a Tesla bull with impeccable timing.

Yeah, should we call that day the ‘Left bottom’ or the ‘Citron bottom’? Amazing how the media sentiment changed around that time too.

 

[AudubonB]

A friend "adviced" me to sell when Tesla reports a P/E. I get that the number will initially be low, and I'm still going to hang on through it, but is there a natural (historical) price action when this happens to any company?

On the flip side, if there is a +P/E, I would also think their reports on growth and future potential would be also outstanding. And because of the surrounding brand optimism, is this all just good news anyway for Tesla so ignore what the "typical" pattern would dictate?

FYI, my friend is real, and kicking himself that he doesn't own any $TSLA. I think he's said that about 4 times this year... and counting.

Whoa!
The P/E # most definitely should not be low - it will be high. The earnings will be somewhat low.
It's very likely you knew those already but I think it worthwhile to have spelled this out.

 

[SOULPEDL]

It's just following the S&P on steroids. Clearly it wants to continue upstream, but imagine if the stream reversed!!!

 

[Buckminster]

Sold a Jan 19 call. Only 2 left to roll over.

 

[Ratanpara]

Tesla still way undervalued, Tesla probably will earn $12-17/share next year.

 

[SOULPEDL]

Whoa!
The P/E # most definitely should not be low - it will be high. The earnings will be somewhat low.
It's very likely you knew those already but I think it worthwhile to have spelled this out.

Mercy... I did not know. I only looked up rules and checking with you guys.
Thanks all for setting me straight - I'm encouraged by this news and I will let my friend know for sure!
Any estimates on what the P/E would likely be then?

 

[tivoboy]

It's funny how Tesla is acting like some sort of flight to safety amidst the market volatility.

So, it's not a dig at all so I want to make that clear right up front, but my question would be:

name another company, whose revenues and earnings are going to grow in percentage or nominal terms over the next 12 months to the magnitude that Tesla earnings are expected to? Most companies are going to be seeing year over year flattening at best if not certainly CONTRACTING in % terms, if not also in $$ terms. That's going to be negative for those stocks and for equity markets in general, but there will be outliers. Tesla will be in that group, IMHO

IT's going to be significant, only question is - how much is already priced in at NEAR these levels.

 

[Nocturnal]

It's just following the S&P on steroids. Clearly it wants to continue upstream, but imagine if the stream reversed!!!

View attachment 358616

Just as long as we don't cross the streams...

So, it's not a dig at all so I want to make that clear right up front, but my question would be:

name another company, whose revenues and earnings are going to grow in percentage or nominal terms over the next 12 months to the magnitude that Tesla earnings are expected to? Most companies are going to be seeing year over year flattening at best if not certainly CONTRACTING in % terms, if not also in $$ terms. That's going to be negative for those stocks and for equity markets in general, but there will be outliers. Tesla will be in that group, IMHO

IT's going to be significant, only question is - how much is already priced in at NEAR these levels.

EVs and associated green tech are the next internet boom IMO. More sedate, but still the next big thing.