TSLA Market Action: 2018 Investor Roundtable

[Nocturnal]

For some of you guys that have been following individual stocks for a long time (I mostly do index fund investing) I have a question. It seems like the spread between SP and the price targets of the bulls is still very far apart. Is that normal? I know some analysst value TSLA at lower than current SP by a similar margin.

Just want to know. How many members Teslamotorsclub.com has?

I only have one, which is good because even one get's me into a lot of trouble.

"Hi, I'm TSLA. I don't have a freaking clue what I plan to do today."

View attachment 360917

 

[AudubonB]

Dear AudubonB,

From your many posts I get the impression that the language itself is important to you and as such that your posts set a linguistic example for others to follow.

Is there any chance you could avoid using the abbreviation mm to (apparently) denote million ?

Oh, absolutely not a chance.

'Tho I thankee for asking so kindly.


see how nice I can be? I didn't even mention he's part of that cult who are confused as to where to put a "," and a "." in numbers.

 

[loco]

Just want to know. How many members Teslamotorsclub.com has?

You can see UIDs when pointing at usernames. Yours is 59k. New users near 90k.

 

[DriveMe]

Just want to know. How many members Teslamotorsclub.com has?

92,618? That's my guess!

 

[Tifighter]

So its done! I bought the performance option, purely for fun factor. I didn't want to regret it later on when "only" going 0-100kmh in 4.8secs

And I went for blue with black seats. I have two small dirty kids and I can imagine being nervous all the time about getting the seats dirty. I love the red with white seats but it stands out a lot, I can be a little more discrete in blue which is important in the part of the world I live in.

Delivery in Feb or March. Cant wait!

Any debate about choosing the P will stop after the first drive. You will not be disappointed. I get compliments on the blue all the time, and it will look even better in that Spanish sunshine...

 

[defc0n]

Limit order filled at $372.71. Let’s see how bad I did today.

 

[LoveTSLA]

You can see UIDs when pointing at usernames. Yours is 59k. New users near 90k.

Wow. If half of them are swing traders, they might be able to move TSLA . I’d better be careful here.

 

[SW2Fiddler]

You can see UIDs when pointing at usernames. Yours is 59k. New users near 90k.

VIN Tracker Spreadsheet incoming in 5... 4... 3...

 

[lklundin]

Jesus, where is Germany ???

OK, I am clearly speculating here.

But it is possible that Tesla deliberately avoids Germany in the first batch - of everything from invitations to configure to actual deliveries.

After all, every German media is dying to report on even the slightest imperfection in the arrival of what their country's industry is unable to compete with, so Tesla may want to get their first experience in countries that are not seeing Tesla as a direct threat to their domestic industry.

 

[UncaNed]

Now, we got an inverted cat, that must be an important sign for chartists...
View attachment 360913

Inverted cat you say? Perhaps @Kruggerand can tell us what that means.

 

[ReflexFunds]

For some of you guys that have been following individual stocks for a long time (I mostly do index fund investing) I have a question. It seems like the spread between SP and the price targets of the bulls is still very far apart. Is that normal? I know some analysst value TSLA at lower than current SP by a similar margin.

Yes there is a larger spread in analyst targets for Tesla than normal, but this is because Tesla is such a high risk, high return investment case. Almost all the value of the business comes in your forecasts of an exponentially changing future, for most companies analysts just need to decide if the company is going to grow 2% or 5%.

The spread in price targets should actually be much higher, but analysts are always reluctant to set targets too far from the current price.

In my view, feasible assumptions for Tesla's total addressable market and probability of success in increasing demand, reducing costs and building new factories, together with delivering L4/5 driverless cars, could lead to a current fair value for the shares anywhere between $200 and $1,500. Looking forward five years, Tesla fair value could feasibly be anywhere between $0 and $10,000.

 

[EVNow]

Looks like TSLA is trading in a narrow band, not really following Nasdaq. But, incidentally about 1% down like Nasdaq.

 

[tivoboy]

Last Friday it tanked $23 from its high to kill options. Wouldn’t be surprised to see that today too. Just enabled margin in my account to pick up shares in $350s if it happens

It's a pretty good bet we'll get UNDER 370$ today. But, reviewing some go forward options strikes into 2019, it's pretty incredible just how much option value is ABOVE 450$ in say February. and the value of strikes above 500$ is really quite striking. So many calls at the above 500/550/600 levels even. I'll have to go back and do some regression analysis and backtesting to see when they all entered in those values and amount. it MIGHT have been during "funding secured", and people thought that frankly it would have to be well above 420$ to get a full shareholder vote. I really can't imagine it's in the past several months, that so many buyers are lining up in the options markets at +500$ plus strikes for February 15, 2019 expiration.

The amount could certainly skew price action in the coming weeks, but just as easily it could be ground zero for the manipulation that has gotten us to this point ~370

 

[TheTalkingMule]

Looks like TSLA is trading in a narrow band, not really following Nasdaq. But, incidentally about 1% down like Nasdaq.

And one could argue that we're in the middle part of the morning.

 

[JoaoD]

Just wanted to add that configurator also opened for Portugal!

 

[AlexS]

Last Friday it tanked $23 from its high to kill options. Wouldn’t be surprised to see that today too. Just enabled margin in my account to pick up shares in $350s if it happens

Max Pain for today is 360, so 350 seems very unlikely. I would say that 360 also looks unlikely, but Max says so.

 

[KarenRei]

It's a pretty good bet we'll get UNDER 370$ today. But, reviewing some go forward options strikes into 2019, it's pretty incredible just how much option value is ABOVE 450$ in say February. and the value of strikes above 500$ is really quite striking. So many calls at the above 500/550/600 levels even. I'll have to go back and do some regression analysis and backtesting to see when they all entered in those values and amount. it MIGHT have been during "funding secured", and people thought that frankly it would have to be well above 420$ to get a full shareholder vote. I really can't imagine it's in the past several months, that so many buyers are lining up in the options markets at +500$ plus strikes for February 15, 2019 expiration.

The amount could certainly skew price action in the coming weeks, but just as easily it could be ground zero for the manipulation that has gotten us to this point ~370

I'll probably be writing some ~$500 Feb '19 calls shortly before the Q4 report if the price is right. I'd rather be able to pump the money into more near-the-money calls; someone else can gamble on the long shots.

Why do I have the feeling that $420 Feb '19 calls are going to be unusually popular...

 

[UncaNed]

And one could argue that we're in the middle part of the morning.

So, are you incinerating that it's time for our Mid Morning....??

 

[FS_FRA]

C’mon SP......get to $354 again so my orders fill

 

[Toolsmack]

Max Pain for today is 360, so 350 seems very unlikely. I would say that 360 also looks unlikely, but Max says so.

This is what I’m guessing will happen today. Hit 360 with 3 minutes before close and try to maintain from there.

Last Friday’s manipulation to hit max pain made me sick.