TSLA Market Action: 2018 Investor Roundtable

[Krugerrand]

There’s always someone. Today it’s you.

I take that back @HG Wells.

 

[Earlian]

Regarding the last days macro downfall: Without that uncertainty and distractions, TSLA should trade around 350*, till the Q4 delivery numbers are out next week

So there is some headroom if Orange behaves properly.

*(was wobbling around that level since the Q3 correction, end of October)

 

[Pezpunk]

I know nobody likes to talk about losses and only brag about gains, but I'm going to do exactly that. 40 shares at 298 are sitting quite nicely at 326 now. That puts me at 527 shares @ about 301 SP average. Back in black, though I was starting to sweat a little. Very overexposed.

cheers, i picked up 40 shares this morning at $300 even myself also! my total share count is around 1500 i think ... when it gets back to $370, i'll probably reduce my stake by 20%.

 

[Nocturnal]

cheers, i picked up 40 shares this morning at $300 even myself also! my total share count is around 1500 i think ... when it gets back to $370, i'll probably reduce my stake by 20%.

Yeah. I will probably reduce a bit somewhere close to 400, if we get there.

There-while one has to notice, that the volatil comments around here are perfectly reflecting the TSLA swings:

Yesterday it was all about a great recession coming up and now we are back in hooray mode.

Dem animal spirits doe

 

[Ugliest1]

First, Tesla is not a religion, it's a cult. Then, the fact that they can rightfully claim that they don't pay for advertising is in itself a priceless marketing asset. Even when at some point in time production may outpace demand, going mainstream does not mean going mainstream media for ads. Sure, "Emissions Test Mode" aka fart app is fun. But moreover, it's awesome PR at a one-off fixed cost. I can't wait to see my 9-yr old's reaction and am quite sure that he will forever associate a Tesla with fun. Tesla nailed it with viral marketing and not doing traditional ads is key to the success.

My wife is starting to get concerned that *MY* reaction to the Emissions Test Mode was like a 9-yr old's. She hopes my enthusiasm will fade after a while. But I, personally, doubt it.

 

[traxila]

Does this mean I won't get to double up at 230?

This f&*%ing stawk....

 

[Tslynk67]

Took a bite at 305 today and finished my tsla position with a bigger move at 295. That makes my total tsla investment's average price a bit above 300, which is right about where I wanted to be. That'll be all I've got for this stock and now i'm just along for the ride. I'm really glad I got a chance to make a move on tsla around this price. I remember after elon's joe rogan experience, that was still a time I wasn't exactly a tesla fan, but the investor in me was very interested around that price. Honestly, I wasn't sure it was going to see under 300 again so I'm glad I got this opportunity. Basically I summarize my thoughts on this stock as follows: it could bounce around the 2xx range, I could see that happening, but that's about as bad as it gets in my opinion unless there is a big catastrophe with tesla or with the macros. But in the long run, I think this company is killing it product wise and proving they can produce and profit. There is tesla, and then there is all the other manufactures bundled up in a big generic looking bag with a label on it that says 'not a tesla'. That's how I think a lot of consumers are going to think about car purchases going forward. "Should I get a tesla? If not, I'm going just get whatever other traditional company gives me the absolute bottom dollar". Tesla is now the only brand that truly stands out. I honestly think we could see the base model 3 become like the toyota camry/honda accords rise to dominance and ubiquity if they can keep the price affordable. And beyond that, for those who have the money, tesla is and will continue to eat up the luxury market. That's just too good a future to not get a piece of this action. I don't think the low on this stock is that much lower going forward, but I think the high could be much higher, and that's why i'm happy to be in now!

And thanks for the support on my first post btw. That surprised me. I do enjoy and will keep my mustang, but I foresee a used model s or new model 3 in my future as a daily.

Sell the fecking Mustang...

 

[winfield100]

Weird to see all these longs on this board losing faith about Q4 deliveries in the last few days

@printf42 and others
I have posted 2-3 times photos of Rockville Maryland USA, Gude drive service center.
Tesla seems to have leased another building, there are a bunch of model 3’s there, a tent outside the service center, and at least 42 model 3’s and a similar number of S , X and 2 roadsters and what looks like a “gaggle” of tradeins. It is at least 2x as crowded as I have ever seen it and most Tesla’s must have autoparked as they are jammed together tightly and lots of people
At least here it looks like _lots_ of deliveries and turnover.

 

[Mich]

So why this happened today? Any fundamental change in the macros or do we go down again tomorrow?

 

[EVNow]

Trump (confidant) was backtracking on the Powell attacks.

Not Trump - his chief economic advisor said Fed chair is safe. That means absolutely nothing in Trump's world. Trump has to tweet.

Even when Trump has tweeted - the guy usually gets fired. Only thing is Fed Chair can't be fired.

 

[Wnuk]

Think someone posted earlier today that max pain on Friday is $345. At the time I’d bet no one thought we could get there. Today changed my mind. Might be worth a swing trade.

 

[EVNow]

Think someone posted earlier today that max pain on Friday is $345. At the time I’d bet no one thought we could get there. Today changed my mind. Might be worth a swing trade.

Max pain is $320.

Opricot Open Interest|Volume|Max Pain

That's one of the reasons I think the price moved so much today.

ps : I'm very curious to see what happens tomorrow - to both the macros & TSLA. Won't be surprised if there is a modest pull back.

 

[lklundin]

News from supplier: Tesla orderd battery winder, cylindrical battery assembly line, battery bi-directional test system, from Wuxi Lead Intelligent, $6m. Also 2 roller press from Naknor

Twitter

I have to ask, who is behind the handle 'Kelvin Yang' and its self-declared location, 'Tampere, Finland' ?

PS. To partly answer my own question: There is a matching linkedin profile, with a short stint as SW developer in Chengdu, Sichuan, China...

 

[bobinfla]

The weirdest thing is - virtually no news today (at macro level). This is what political uncertainty does to markets.

I'm not sure if this is the case.

I remember seeing hurricanes go through the Gulf of Mexico, drilling platforms get shut down for a little while and the price of gasoline skyrocketting. Price wouldn't come back down until Exxon, etc. would report record profits for the quarter (and prices would have to come down once the cat was out of the bag). In other words, the hurricane wasn't the reason for the price hikes, it was a convenient excuse for those who wanted to hike the prices. Effect following cause, not the other way around.

For years, I've watched the price wars between the TSLA bulls and the short sellers, Musk vs the media, FUD all over the place and seen TSLA move in completely inexplicable ways over and over again. Then, after it happens, we try to come up with the reason for it. I pretty much think that "they" decide that the price is going to move because "they" make a lot of money on volatility, and the causes that get ascribed to it are just reasonable sounding myths, not really reasons.

Recently, the wild swings that we've always seen in TSLA over the last six years are happening to the market as a whole. My theory, for what it's worth (probably not much), is that the market has decided that what works profitably on individual stocks (manipulated volatility) works even better on the whole market, and that is what we are seeing. I think, again, for what it's worth, that the market grabs onto a piece of news and decides they can use that news to create a market manipulation. How many times in the last year have we seen the Market drop significantly and it gets blamed on Tariff wars, only to see it recover two days later? Are we really supposed to believe that after a decent meal and a good night's sleep, everyone decided that they weren't as scared about the tariffs as they thought they were the day before? It would be interesting to know on the volatile days, what is the percentage gain or loss for the big guys vs what happens to the little guys.

With that said, go back and think through everything that was said after the market tanked on Monday and determine if anything that refuted those positions changed between Monday and today, because if it doesn't explain both the drop and the surge, then it's not really the reason. I would assert that nothing happened between Monday morning and Wednesday afternoon that explains both the big drop and the big rally. Not in the tariff negotiations, not in the economy, not in the government shutdown, not in the level of political uncertainty, not in the POTUS. Nothing.

As much as I'd like to be wrong, I get more and more cynical in my old age. Anybody that has a theory that explains both sides of this week, please educate me.

 

[riverFox]

Subtle things...

Elon unpinned his $7500 end of year tax credit tweet. Also he's pumping his supercharger network improvements for Europe. He's still pushing for US sales, but he's definitely thinking about 1st qtr now. This is bullish for me.

Cheers to the Longs!

 

[Intl Professor]

I'm not sure if this is the case.

I remember seeing hurricanes go through the Gulf of Mexico, drilling platforms get shut down for a little while and the price of gasoline skyrocketting. Price wouldn't come back down until Exxon, etc. would report record profits for the quarter (and prices would have to come down once the cat was out of the bag). In other words, the hurricane wasn't the reason for the price hikes, it was a convenient excuse for those who wanted to hike the prices. Effect following cause, not the other way around.

For years, I've watched the price wars between the TSLA bulls and the short sellers, Musk vs the media, FUD all over the place and seen TSLA move in completely inexplicable ways over and over again. Then, after it happens, we try to come up with the reason for it. I pretty much think that "they" decide that the price is going to move because "they" make a lot of money on volatility, and the causes that get ascribed to it are just reasonable sounding myths, not really reasons.

Recently, the wild swings that we've always seen in TSLA over the last six years are happening to the market as a whole. My theory, for what it's worth (probably not much), is that the market has decided that what works profitably on individual stocks (manipulated volatility) works even better on the whole market, and that is what we are seeing. I think, again, for what it's worth, that the market grabs onto a piece of news and decides they can use that news to create a market manipulation. How many times in the last year have we seen the Market drop significantly and it gets blamed on Tariff wars, only to see it recover two days later? Are we really supposed to believe that after a decent meal and a good night's sleep, everyone decided that they weren't as scared about the tariffs as they thought they were the day before? It would be interesting to know on the volatile days, what is the percentage gain or loss for the big guys vs what happens to the little guys.

With that said, go back and think through everything that was said after the market tanked on Monday and determine if anything that refuted those positions changed between Monday and today, because if it doesn't explain both the drop and the surge, then it's not really the reason. I would assert that nothing happened between Monday morning and Wednesday afternoon that explains both the big drop and the big rally. Not in the tariff negotiations, not in the economy, not in the government shutdown, not in the level of political uncertainty, not in the POTUS. Nothing.

As much as I'd like to be wrong, I get more and more cynical in my old age. Anybody that has a theory that explains both sides of this week, please educate me.

Pretty clear markets and media are in a positive feedback loop. The variation is downward or upward augmented.

 

[anthonyj]

These types of surprise moves scare the living **** out of shorts. Good for the long run. I would slightly reduce my position here but we are going to get some surprise news from Elon Thursday or Friday, I’m sure of it

 

[anthonyj]

Subtle things...

Elon unpinned his $7500 end of year tax credit tweet. Also he's pumping his supercharger network improvements for Europe. He's still pushing for US sales, but he's definitely thinking about 1st qtr now. This is bullish for me.

Cheers to the Longs!

Tesla will subsidize the $3,750 tax credit for the next 6 months, I’m sure of it. Production ramping up means they have more than enough margin to pull it off. At the very least all vehicles will get $2k reduction in price in January

 

[Intl Professor]

The old grey lady has a fairly balanced listing of considerations affecting current volatility. There is a disconnect between fundamentals of Tesla and SP action. So too for the economy and markets in general. We just saw that crowd behavior in spades over two days. A mistake to place bets on markets rather than fundamentals but then I'm long to the core so biased.

Stocks Bounce Back From Edge of Bear Market

 

[JRP3]

Tesla will subsidize the $3,750 tax credit for the next 6 months, I’m sure of it.

That doesn't make any sense.