Well how interesting that these are 2018 VINs according to @Model 3 VINs. I’m not sure what to make of it.
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Well how interesting that these are 2018 VINs according to @Model 3 VINs. I’m not sure what to make of it.
JRP3
Hyperactive Member
Clearly not Elon. And if it were we should ban him from the forum because he has better things to do...
We can rely on the ad-driven media for that:
Tesla misses their Q4 guidance of 67k deliveries...
It's interesting to me that the production estimates have diverged so much between bloomberg and @Troy 's tracker. If I'm reading bloomberg's Tesla tracker they estimate production at 154432 (Total) - 94269 (Confirmed as of Q3) = 60163
I'd be interested to hear other's thoughts on this divergence.
Source: Bloomberg - Are you a robot? (Tesla Tracker)
The other question is deliveries... I know this won't be a popular opinion: My *gut* feeling is that M3 sales are below target. This is based on circumstantial evidence we have all seen like stories about excess inventory at delivery centers and incentives that are being offered to employees. For example the latest email obtained from Musk and written up by Electrek is titled about the FSD test program, however besides offering free EAP and FSD, the terms seem to be incentivizing Q4 sales. The offer allows employees to credit accrued vacation time towards the purchase price and ends on Dec 31st.
Source: Tesla launches new incentives for employees to buy cars and get on Autopilot Hardware 3 test program
I'm long TSLA but I see some bumps coming up so I'll be waiting in the wings and if we see the stock drop below my cost basis (~$280) I'll probably increase my position.
Zhelko Dimic
Careful bull
Porsche isn't well known for great 'goodwill' towards customers related to anything that is not legally enforceable towards them. Or at least it threatens to ruin relationship with their best customers (GT3 engine fires), but even that case is iffy.
Ask me how I know...
No, actually, please don't ask me, I had enough nightmares from the time I had too much car for my budget...
To conclude, this feature is a smart, built-in future profit center for Porsche. It ensures there is a decent supply of owners looking for battery pack replacements. I'm sure they'll last through warranty period though, you know, 2 years, or even 4 if Porsche feels generous.
With regards to production and delivery Q4 estimates we see a wide spread of predictions these days.
Although I have been asked I am not in the game of predicting numbers. Its a tempting exercise but others did that already pretty well so the added value would be low. The main reason for that is that I tend to look at the broader long term picture and even a quarter is for my investment horizon just a short moment.
As an investor I am of course very much interested how good or not good P&D is going. Q4 is of particularly high importance in that respect. We talk here about continuous growth reflected in better P&D than before, stable to better CF and profits as well as margins.
The strong manipulation of the stock price that in my believe should be far above $400 already today is only possible with creating a bearish view in the investor community. In order to take that option away from bears and shorts and allow a more realistic price determination a continuous growth in the described metrics is important as it would be a confirmation of Q3 and lead likely to expectations of continuity in Q1 and following quarters. With expectations the SP goes up or down.
If Tesla is just flat or slightly down we can expect that shorts will do their job and the stock price will drop - maybe even quite a bit. I do not believe though that P&D will be flat or negative but positive. In my opinion the question how strong the quarter is will not be the key but only that it is better than Q3 and gives Tesla financial flexibility for growth.
We have seen in the past that even a beat can be redefined as a negative and its good to be prepared for that. Setting expectations low is not a bad move to be prepared.
With the Y reveal likely in Q1 and international delivery of the 3 to EU to start in February and nearing a S&P addition a series of positive news can be fairly expected and assumed. Q2 should be a very strong EU driven quarter as well as Q3 and Q4 when first China production may if all goes well gets started and adds to results.
To summarize the SP development is almost impossible to predict given all the manipulation at WallStreet as well as in the news. Much more important to me is to have a clear understanding that the company, product, services and financials are going well and looking at all we know I can clearly state that this is the case. If that goes well the SP will follow sooner or later.
Having time is a precious luxury and luckily I have that luxury to wait until the true value is finally reflected.
Although I have been asked I am not in the game of predicting numbers. Its a tempting exercise but others did that already pretty well so the added value would be low. The main reason for that is that I tend to look at the broader long term picture and even a quarter is for my investment horizon just a short moment.
As an investor I am of course very much interested how good or not good P&D is going. Q4 is of particularly high importance in that respect. We talk here about continuous growth reflected in better P&D than before, stable to better CF and profits as well as margins.
The strong manipulation of the stock price that in my believe should be far above $400 already today is only possible with creating a bearish view in the investor community. In order to take that option away from bears and shorts and allow a more realistic price determination a continuous growth in the described metrics is important as it would be a confirmation of Q3 and lead likely to expectations of continuity in Q1 and following quarters. With expectations the SP goes up or down.
If Tesla is just flat or slightly down we can expect that shorts will do their job and the stock price will drop - maybe even quite a bit. I do not believe though that P&D will be flat or negative but positive. In my opinion the question how strong the quarter is will not be the key but only that it is better than Q3 and gives Tesla financial flexibility for growth.
We have seen in the past that even a beat can be redefined as a negative and its good to be prepared for that. Setting expectations low is not a bad move to be prepared.
With the Y reveal likely in Q1 and international delivery of the 3 to EU to start in February and nearing a S&P addition a series of positive news can be fairly expected and assumed. Q2 should be a very strong EU driven quarter as well as Q3 and Q4 when first China production may if all goes well gets started and adds to results.
To summarize the SP development is almost impossible to predict given all the manipulation at WallStreet as well as in the news. Much more important to me is to have a clear understanding that the company, product, services and financials are going well and looking at all we know I can clearly state that this is the case. If that goes well the SP will follow sooner or later.
Having time is a precious luxury and luckily I have that luxury to wait until the true value is finally reflected.
Fact Checking
Well-Known Member
Yes, but note that the Q3 conference call made it clear that in Q4 Elon will put extra emphasis on inventory reduction, to improve working capital.
And indeed, several steps were taken in Q4:
- Tesla acquired its own trucking fleet and has halved delivery times all across to Florida.
- Delivery centers got extra staffing,
- "5 minute deliveries" were introduced,
- Buying without test driving is incentivised with extra cash back no questions asked time,
- Finally, Elon activated the closest customers for the final days of Q4: Tesla employees waiting for the $35k Model 3.
- Still no leasing for the Model 3,
- no leasing perks like in Q3,
- no "absolutely final" free Supercharging perks, etc.,
Elon's email appears to be part of that inventory effort. Note how it was written just 3 days before the end of the quarter - if they had any real sales trouble they'd have started it earlier.
I could be wrong of course - only 3 more days and we'll find out!
The Bloomberg tracker has just been adjusted... and is now at >150k.
Fact Checking
Well-Known Member
It was at around 147k earlier today IIRC - they must have adjusted/updated it.
New Bloomberg Q4 estimate corresponds to 60k Model 3 production.
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So, i have been looking around and find no _actual_ VIN's in these trackers
The VIN I reported Saturday in maryland
5YJ3E1EBXJF183926
how does 183,926 fit in the scheme?
ie, are numbers higher or lower or is it who knows?
Free Vehicle Identification Number (VIN) Decoder & Lookup | Driving-Tests.org
5YJ3E1EBXJF183912
5YJ3E1EBXJF183909
these two both exist somewhere tho
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You may have missed the follow up video where Munro admitted he had to “eat crow” on many of his earlier comments. And one of them, I believe, was the foolhardy design of the doors (“far too expensive” or something like that), which of course we now know WHY they were built like that — protecting the occupants in an accident. The second video is where he got into the electronics, where he was blown away by the design. After that second video, he stopped making comments altogether. If I remember correctly, the speculation around here was that his masters (whoever had commissioned his research) told him to stop commenting if he couldn’t say bad things about the Model 3.
Others with better memories and/or search skills please chime in with more/better facts.
Dreadnought
Member
This decoder supposedly evaluates the checksum (9th character, "X" in this example) and thus fails to decode it. With a correct checksum, it returns a value for 5YJ3E1EB1JF183927 but I don't interpret this as any confirmation that the VIN has been assigned.
Actual picture of Tesla model 3 VIN
5YJ3E1EB1JF183926 it's ....926, not ....927, easy mistake
Attachments
Bet TSLA
Active Member
I stopped by the Fremont Delivery Center on Monday last week and today (Sunday). Both times it was relaxed and uncrowded compared to Q318, although still bustling by any measure. I didn't see any owners helping out. It looks to me like Tesla had things well in hand, with no customers looking like they'd been waiting around for hours. I put in three full days last quarter, but I didn't offer to help today as it didn't seem to be wanted.
saw too many posts in 2013 of people who sold after the silly fast rise from $40 to $80 in a matter of days only to regret it later.
agree there's opportunity to trade off the volatility... I've done so hundreds of times since 2013, thusfar with a clean record. it's just about the direction you're doing the trading. I hold core shares, when the price gets silly low, I add trading shares. I sell these on rebounds. I'm never out of my core shares... held since 2012.
of course, no investing or trading strategy is a guarantee. however, if Tesla is successful on the scale so many of us anticipate over the next 5-10 years, this approach never has you out of Tesla, and let's you trade on the volatility just as often as trading in the other direction would.
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humbaba
sleeping until $7000
He shut up because of threat of legal action. Of course there was an absurd attempt to pin the lawsuit on Tesla, but that was debunked.
UPDATE: Munro Threatened With Lawsuit For Tesla Model 3 Teardown
Even in this carefully chosen window, had a person sold at $80, then put the money in a NASDAQ-matching fund, by late November they would have been at $100 per share sold, versus a hold strategy that would have been at $120 per share kept. And TSLA continued to meander until January (while NASDAQ continued to rise) until mid January. A person who regretted getting out of the stock could easily have gotten back in then (and would have, had they believed in Tesla and just made a poorly timed swing trade).
Furthermore, these sort of arguments against swing trading act like "stock spikes on news with a long-term impact" are equivalent to "stock spikes on random fluctuation and short-term news". They're not. A swing trader who sold some stock in the $370s (such as myself) while we far from meaningful, thesis-proving-or-busting news and in a questionable macro environment, bobbing around in the doldrums waiting for the Q4 report, is not the same as a person who sells after Tesla reports its first profit and shows that it can earn solid margins on electric cars and is thus not going to be an eternal money sink.
As it turns out, the NY Times has made some changes.
1) In 2017, the NYT eliminated the position of Public Editor.
The Public Editor Signs Off
It was the Public Editor, who at the urging of Tesla supporters in 2013 that investigated Broder's drive and his reporting on it. She concluded that Broder's reporting had "problems with precision and judgement." Again, there is no longer a public editor at the NY Times.
2) In early 2018, John Broder was promoted to the editorial board of the NY Times,
John M. Broder
I think those of us here at TMC are well aware of the quality of the NY Time's writings about Tesla this year. I wonder if Elon, Tesla, @ZachShahan CleanTechnica and their Pravda reports, (Elon's mom, whose taken on media watching on Twitter), etc., are aware that the aftermath of the 2013 "Broder trashing Tesla" (as @abasile put it) has been the elimination of the public editor position, and the addition of John Broder to the NY Times editorial board. Would not hurt if these moves by the NYT became very well known.
trade as you like Karen.
I've been in my core position since 2012, and have only grown it.
I've still been able to make hundreds of trades, with a clean record.
perhaps your circumstances are different, but, for me there's virtually no disadvantage to adding trading shares during selloffs, rather than selling core shares after runups. In 6.5 years there's only been one roughly 24 hour period when I thought the shares had crossed over fair value. I don't see selling core shares when I think they are undervalued... what I see as a massive advantage to the direction I choose for the trading I do.
No strategy is zero risk. If Elon was not exaggerating about Tesla being single digits away from death this past spring/summer (and literal in his use of the word "death"), than I was taking more risk than I realized, and I could have seen the lion's share of my net worth exit my accounts. I'd thought there was very high probability that if funds were needed it would not be an issue with multiple options (a cap raise, Elon's friends, 3 of whom alone have over $150 billion of net worth, Elon tapping his SpaceX net worth (~$12billion)).
As to the specific scenario you offered, about the NASDAQ going up 25% in those few months in 2013- I never saw a single post from anyone who'd sold at $80, saying, "yeah I watched you guys soar to $180, but I stayed, cool and calm because I'd bought the NASDAQ and road that up 25%, so when you guys dropped back down to $120 for a few days, of course, I perfectly timed getting back into Tesla... phew, still have 83% as many Tesla shares as I would have if I'd of just stayed long." I did see multiple posts about "watching it go... discomfort... hard to buy back in... when to buy... if only I'd held..."
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