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Discussion in 'TSLA Investor Discussions' started by Robert.Boston, Dec 31, 2014.
Please use this thread for technical analyses of TSLA stock price movements.
Let the unicorns roam free! Chartopia awaits!
Sooooo uhhh, is there such a thing as a double hammer? Cause Friday we had a Hammer and then Today we had another Hammer. We will just ignore what happened on Monday...
Each of the three day selling pressure has been strong through most of the day, while buyers wait to jump in toward the end of the trading day. This sort of buying behavoir seems to reflect a willingness see what the sellers will offer, but betrays an expectation the price will begin an upward climb soon. I think this is general what a hammer suggests, and sellers often get the message that its time to back off.
So it is curious that sellers are not backing off. They think there is more downside to be had, despite the eagerness of buyers to lock in bargains at the end of the day.
My feeling is that we are playing with a seller who plays by different rules. This seller seems to have a strong belief that oil will continue to crash and that Tesla can be brought down with it. The fact that Tesla closed up 0.6% today while oil went down 3.9% today seems to suggest that this seller is losing their grip. Once the market recognizes that the demand for Tesla's cars is largely orthogonal to oil price movements, the spell will be broken. If tomorrow we see oil continue to fall hard, but Tesla closes up, then I think the oil correlation may well be broken. I think once oil and Tesla decouple, Tesla may advance rapidly.
All right, can we then speculate on how the spell could be broken? Here is my favorite tool - regression channeling at work:
Very well said.
Could you explain further? I don't understand what this means or how to interpret it.
I think this was what I was getting at (minus giving a reason re: oil) normally a hammer is a pretty strong bullish signal (from everything I am getting on the subject) so I find it odd that the stock has twice now signaled that we should be at a local bottom. It will be interesting to see what happens today.
There are multiple sources on explaining linear regression channels available, link below is just one of those. The channels on my chart are +/- one standard deviation. As you can see almost all of TSLA movements for the past year fit pretty tightly into the several regression channels - some of them upward, other - downward. I think that we might be finally carving out an upward channel, as shown on my chart.
Linear Regression Channel - Technical Analysis
As for the Hammer, if you take a look at KNDI, yesterday's and today's price action is a a perfect textbook example of the hammer and it's confirmation!
Hoping that we see the same very soon with TSLA
Even though we are under the 200-DMA the channels give the idea of a technical stock for TSLA anyway IMO. Then, when we will get the 200-DMA, we could give to this period of vacancy from the technical borders a name like "oil prices issue period".
Would like the opinions of TMC Members on this matter.
I feel like the oil crash has overrun the technicals. As I mentioned before, I think we are dealing with a different sort of seller, who plays by a different set of rules. This may well include OPEC insiders and sovereign wealth hedging against the fall of oil prices. If my suspicion has any merit, these guys don't give a **** about technicals. When you know what major oil players will do in the near future, you're not looking at technical charts trying to predict price movements. Inside information trumps technicals.
So again, if this view has any merit, then we need to think very carefully about how to invest in the face of OPEC insider trading. Personally, I think this is a very bad time for short term trading. OPEC insiders control or are close to the control of the timing of OPEC actions. We are at a huge disadvantage to try to guess at OPEC's next move. So I don't want to play that game. What I will bet on is that long run Tesla becomes a great company and sells millions of electric cars and high performance batteries, all of which is an economic substitute for oil. OPEC insiders cannot disrupt this by cheap oil or by shorting the stock. So I see this as a time to be a really longterm shareholder. Finally, to the extent that OPEC insiders are using tesla stock as a hedging instrument, they will drive the stock price below a reasonable market value as long as OPEC is crashing oil prices. That is, they will keep selling as long as they know oil prices will continue to fall. They will close short positions and maybe even go long in advance of OPEC announcing a change in policy, a change which will stablize oil prices. Remember they have inside information that tells them when they no longer need thier hedge. The hedge will be quietly lifted prior to any major OPEC announcement. I have no idea when that announcement will happen, so I want to own shares now. It is plausible, that Tesla's price could advance prior to this announcement, but I would not count on it and it would be an ambiguous signal most likely. But once OPEC makes that announcement, I would expect Tesla's stock to move quickly. So the only way I can think to play this is to own shares now, hold on tight, and buy more when oil declines take hits on Tesla. Buckle up, it could be a very long and bumpy road, or it could be over quicker than anyone thinks.
So that's my strategy. I'd love to hear other approaches.
Read that the 200-DMA almost coincides with the 50-DMA.
TSLA Tesla Motors Inc XNAS:TSLA Stock Quote Price News
Not good for the stock. It's due to the fact that we are under the 200-DMA from one month now.
I don't think it's insider trading or Opec, I think it's the market in general. Overall there's been a bit of a pull back due to oil prices dropping across the board from here to Asia. The market generally reacts with a pullback out of caution for future outlook on the macro-economic front. A quick, but not so very accurate indicator to gauge where the global economy may head months down the road is to examine the demand for oil. If demand is high, one can conclude that the global economy is healthy due to factories, manufactures and industries that uses oil to directly run their line of business and production. However, if demand is low, than one can conclude that the overall global economy is weak. This thesis IMO is wrong, due to the fact that oil prices generally decreases in the winter, yet Opec has not chosen the historical route of slimming down supply. Additionally, production for oil has risen in recent years due to fracking, which causes saturation (there is also a theory that OPEC is trying to bankrupt the frackers).
Today, the market has responded in a very positive way, by reversing itself into positive territory due to U.S jobs numbers being released in the early morning, which showed a huge net positive for December, adding 241,000 jobs to the economy, while analysts were estimating the 220,000s for December. As more and more of these types of data reveals itself within the coming weeks, traders will be back with more confidence and eager to buy. Generally on wall street, the rule has always been "sell first, ask questions later," the street has been selling shares of late, it's about time the market asks itself better questions: whether lower gas prices is good for the global economy? It appears this forum already knows the answer to this one, and we are just waiting for wall street to catch up, this has also been the trend while lurking on this forum. It takes awhile for others to catch on to us clever TESLANAIRES. Good luck to all, and I agree, go LOOOOOOOOOOOONG.
Yep. I'm still long-term and not selling anytime soon.
BTW. Non-farm payrolls is released this Friday 830am est. Today was ADP's numbers.
Yeah that is the famous "death cross". Not good.
Regarding, "sell now, ask questions later," given that oil has been falling for 6 months, I don't get that sort of knee jerk selling idea. It seems that the market has had plenty of time to diagnose the situation, two quarters. It seems to me that there has been a deliberate attempt to misunderstand the implication of this decline in oil prices. It smells like straight up FUD to me.
In any case, we're on the same page viewing this as a time to buy and hold shares of Tesla.
In some cases, selling out of caution makes sense, this is clearly not one of those instances. It's difficult to accept FUD for how it manipulates a segment of the market, especially when the company you've invested in are under constant attack. However, if we can pause for a moment and absorb what's been happening in the market lately, the recent FUDs can really help long term investors like ourselves.
2014 was a very bullish year, many investors may argue that there was a bubble brewing, while others use earnings to justify bullishness. Whichever side of the field you are on, if your stock continues to climb at a fast pace, and the overall market does the same, as the market rises some more, one becomes unsure of their investments, questioning if valuations are correct. Some investors may sell off, waiting for a pullback, while others hang on for the long haul. It's unclear which recent event caused this pullback, whether it be macro-economics, oil or delays of model X, it appears the market is doing its thing, which is to react negatively in preparation for a breakout. Sometimes the market needs a breather, it needs to take one step back for two steps forward. I would imagine that many investors who sold off due to taxes, FUDs or fear are anxiously waiting for the right moment to jump back in. After all, our story as a company hasn't changed, it's only gotten better.
The recent downtrend is more like two steps back than one, given that we've fallen from ATH's of 280s, but I would argue that perhaps it was a much needed pullback in order to spring 3-4 steps forward. With a bullish 2015 guidance and X on the way, investors and institutions will be calling this stock cheap, instead of expensive very soon. Although a hard pill to swallow, I view the recent pullback as TSLA loading up on more ammo, the longer we stay at this level, the more ammo we have for a stronger foundation and breakout.
Not even sure if I should include this in this forum as I am no pro. With all the chatter in the Short Term thread about TA I felt this is a good depiction of what may be happening. I looked at the 30, 50, and 100 MA just to see how we were. If anything, this shows us how news driven this stock is (I'm sure many of us know this but in times of down periods we seem to forget). This is a good reminder.
If you look carefully I started the date range at October. We see that Tesla was trading downwards for quite a while until the D event. We've actually been trading under the range for quite a bit until the build up to earnings. After that month closed I think we saw a lot of things occur. D delays and other logistical uncertainties such as poor weather in the California region at the time. There's also the element of automatic trading/manipulative attempts in low volume times such as mid - end of December. The entire time we've been below the TA range. To me this signals that we're oversold, yes there could be downward action but at the same time it can react violently upward if we get some more insight in the conferences this week (industry + financial). This is going to be amplified even more, given that the last time short interest was reported in Mid December it sat at 25% (probably has increased since then).
The two periods you are looking for is the 200DMA and the 50DMA. (as opposed to the 100 and 30 shown here). 50 crossing 200 is normally a bad sign, but it can go either way... it seems to have about a 50/50 chance of causing mass panic as it does the chance of not doing that... But they will certainly try to make it into the end of the world.